The main purpose of this comprehensive study is to determine the optimal hedge ratios and hedging effectiveness of different futures contracts traded on the Borsa Istanbul (BIST), namely the BIST 30 equity index, US dollar–Turkish lira currency futures (USD-TRY), euro–Turkish lira (EUR-TRY)...

This paper tests the hypothesis that long-short speculators are able to generate short-term investment returns based on their sentiment for twelve agricultural commodity futures. For this purpose, we dynamically model the equidirectional trading of long and short commodity futures of long-short...

Trading activities represent the flow of market information to the investors. This paper examines the effect of trading activities, i.e., trading volume and open interest, on the volatility of return for Malaysian Crude Palm Oil Futures. The GARCH model is applied by adding the expected and...

Modeling futures market risk simultaneously influenced by macro low-frequency information and daily risk factors is a valuable challenge. We propose a new general framework for it based on the flexible GARCH-MIDAS model. It uses a skewed t distribution to describe the asymmetry of long and short...

The COVID-19 epidemic has severely affected the world economy and energy markets. In order to alleviate the shock, stabilize the financial market, and promote economic recovery, the Fed announced an unlimited QE policy. In order to understand the impact of the policy on the energy market under...

We examine the high-frequency intraday return and volatility transmission between crude oil futures prices and exchange rates around the COVID-19 shock for both the newly established Renminbi-denominated INE in China and the dollar-denominated Brent in the UK. With controlling for the influence...

This study decomposes a momentum factor (MOM) in the commodity futures market. A high-to-price (HTP) factor generates a higher Sharpe ratio than a price-to-high (PTH) factor. We uncover that the profitability mechanisms across three momentum factors are different. The positive returns on MOM and...

Several common properties shared by cryptocurrencies and precious metals, such as safe haven, hedge and diversification for risk assets, have been wildly discussed since the day Bitcoin was created in 2008. However, no studies have explored whether cryptocurrency market uncertainties can help to...

This paper is among the first to investigate high-frequency herding tendencies among exchange traded funds (ETF) traders within the commodities asset class. Operating on 64 popularly traded and liquid ETFs spread across five sub-sectors from 2009 to 2021, we apply four different...

In this work we perform a pricing exercise of different types of spread options; we particularly focus on European calendar and crack spread options. We present the expressions followed by the joint characteristic functions of the underlying log-prices for a panel of bivariate processes. The...

In statistical arbitrage, paired trading, as a market-neutral strategy, is widely used because of its simple method and easy implementation. This paper constructs a machine learning framework for commodity futures matching trading from four aspects: systematic feature extraction, unsupervised...

In order to tackle the non-availability of inflation futures data, we introduce the futures on the CPI proxy (FCP). Compared to over-the-counter inflation-linked derivatives, the FCP is a more accessible tool for inflation forecasting. The time series of the FCP chain is analysed by a two-factor...

This article investigates comovement and contagions in the commodities markets. We examine the comovement by analyzing the unconditional correlation coefficients. We document that commodities tend to partially integrate. We perform contagion tests by identifying coexceedances and estimating...

This paper examines the effect of real-time global geopolitical risks (GPRs), acts (GPAs), and threats (GPTs) indices on monthly returns and volatility of several American commodity futures. By modeling volatility via an Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity...

This study provides novel analysis of the events in the WTI crude oil futures market on April 20, 2020. We detail how the arbitrage linkages between the NYMEX CL contract and the e-mini NYMEX QM contract broke down and report new information about the unusual market conditions on that date....

The shape of the futures term structure is essential to commodity hedgers and speculators as futures prices serve as a forecast of future spot prices. Commodity markets quotes futures prices on a selection of maturities and delivery periods. In this note, we investigate a Bayesian technique...

This paper constructs risk-free interest rates implicit in index option prices for ten of the major G11 currencies. We compare these rates to the yields of government bonds to provide international estimates of the convenience yield earned by safe assets. Average convenience yields across...

The high volatility and energy usage of rare earths have raised sustainable and financial concerns for environmentalists and sustainable investors. Therefore, this paper aims to investigate time-varying volatility transmission among rare earths elements, energy commodities, and sustainable...

In 1987, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) began analyzing whether swaps were futures under the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA). If yes, over-the-counter (OTC) swaps would violate the CEA’s exchange trading requirement. Rather than address this in a proposed rulemaking, the CFTC...

In 1987, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) began analyzing whether swaps were futures under the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA). If yes, over-the-counter (OTC) swaps would violate the CEA’s exchange trading requirement. Rather than address this in a proposed rulemaking, the CFTC...

We find out-of-sample predictability of commodity futures excess returns using combination forecasts of 28 potential predictors. Such gains in forecast accuracy translate into economically significant improvements in certainty equivalent returns and Sharpe ratios for a mean-variance investor....

The current paper examines the maturity effect which states that “the futures prices volatility increases as the futures contract approaches its maturity period”. As per maturity effect theory, when a contract approaches its delivery date, the flow of information affects the prices. The...

In this paper we propose a stochastic volatility model for crude oil markets that has the particularity to feature a regime-switching price of variance-risk. While preserving tractability, this model allows us to capture the episodes of negative and positive variance risk premium. A two-state...

This study investigates how prices respond to unanticipated crude oil inventory shocks and how quickly the markets incorporate news in crude oil, gasoline, and heating oil futures markets by using structured vector autoregression (SVAR) models based on EIA inventory report announcement and news...

Derivatives are playing an increasing role within the trading ecosystem of Bitcoin markets. This includes futures that are traded on US regulated exchanges like the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and unregulated exchanges like Binance. Prior research on which bitcoin markets lead in price...

For grain and oilseed futures, deliveries facilitate convergence by allowing for arbitrage between the physical commodity and the “paper” (i.e., futures) markets. A sizeable literature has looked at deliveries to answer questions about price convergence and about the value of options...

In this study, we investigate whether geopolitical risk is a pricing factor in cross-sectional commodity futures returns. By estimating the exposure of commodity futures returns on a geopolitical risk index, we find that commodities with high-risk beta generate 7.92% higher annual returns than...

A well-documented finding is that explicitly using jumps cannot efficiently enhance the predictability of crude oil price volatility. To address this issue, we find a phenomenon, "momentum of jumps" (MoJ), that the predictive ability of the jump component is persistent when forecasting the oil...

In this paper we propose a simple one-factor quantile regression model based on realized volatility to forecast Value-at-Risk (VaR). The model only uses daily realized volatility as input and thus simplifies estimation substantially compared with most other methodologies currently used to...

Investigating crude oil price volatility is crucial, because crude oil price certainly affects the economy through many channels. This study applies a Vector Auto Regression (VAR) model to examine the impact of crude oil market on basic commodities, financial markets and industrial production....

US dairy futures markets of milk, butter, cheese, and dry whey exhibit unique volatility patterns under the Federal Milk Marketing Order pricing scheme. We show dairy volatilities have a relatively low connectedness among themselves and a commodity index. Dairy futures markets respond to...