Soybeans play a critical role in China's food system and hold significant importance in ensuring national food security. This study explores the correlation between soybean futures prices and international soybean import prices. It employs a time-series model to analyse the volatility of the...

Commodity prices are expected to decline by about 7 percent overall this year, reflecting subdued global economic activity, elevated trade tensions and policy uncertainty, ample global supply of oil, and weather-related supply shocks. In 2026, commodity prices are forecast to fall by a further 7...

A robust model for natural gas prices should simultaneously capture the observed prices of both futures and options. While incorporating a seasonal factor in the convenience yield of the spot price effectively replicates forward curves, it proves insufficient for accurately modelling the options...

Commodity prices are set to fall sharply this year, by about 12 percent overall, as weakening global economic growth weighs on demand. In 2026, commodity prices are projected to reach a six-year low. Oil prices are expected to exert substantial downward pressure on the aggregate commodity index...

This paper presents a novel 5-factor model for agricultural commodity risk premiums, an approach not explored in previous research. The model is applied to the specific cases of corn, soybeans, and wheat. Calibration is achieved using a Kalman filter and maximum likelihood, with data from...

This paper examines the dynamic relationships between speculative activities, commodity returns, and macroeconomic conditions across five sectors compassing 29 commodities. Using weekly data spanning from January 2000 to July 2023, we construct comprehensive measures of commodity market...

Research has often attributed commodity futures contracts (CFC) adoption in agriculture to structural factors, such as farm size and education, linking low uptake to economies of scale and learning costs. We challenge this perspective by investigating psychological dimensions of farmers'...

The conflict in the Middle East has been exerting upward pressures on prices of key commodities, notably oil and gold. High commodity prices, despite relatively subdued global GDP growth, suggest some countervailing forces offsetting tepid demand, such as heightened geopolitical strains and...

The objective of this study is to examine the return interconnectedness and asymmetric spillover effects in global commodity futures markets, with a focus on the impact of contagion. A competent asymmetric time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model was employed for highly...

Commodity price co-movements significantly impact investment decisions. High correlations constrain portfolio diversification and limit risk mitigation potential. While international markets often exhibit strong price linkages, understanding national-level dynamics is crucial for effective...

This paper assesses the impact of the Black Sea Grain Initiative on the grain futures market. We rely on counterfactual evaluation techniques and detailed futures price series to estimate how corn and wheat futures prices and historical volatility responded to the Grain Deal enforcement,...