Agricultural commodity markets in developing countries are characterized by high transaction costs and risks that reduce trade flows among spatial markets. We examine whether institutionalized agricultural commodity exchange markets reduce transaction costs and hence spatial price dispersion...

The main purpose of this comprehensive study is to determine the optimal hedge ratios and hedging effectiveness of different futures contracts traded on the Borsa Istanbul (BIST), namely the BIST 30 equity index, US dollar–Turkish lira currency futures (USD-TRY), euro–Turkish lira (EUR-TRY)...

This paper tests the hypothesis that long-short speculators are able to generate short-term investment returns based on their sentiment for twelve agricultural commodity futures. For this purpose, we dynamically model the equidirectional trading of long and short commodity futures of long-short...

Most previous studies reject the basic tenet of the Masters Hypothesis that the influx of financial index investments has pressured agricultural futures prices upwards substantially. However, the impact of index investment activities may be more complicated and nuanced than can be detected by...

This paper investigates the impact of soybean and crude oil futures on palm oil indexes by utilising monthly data from three palm oil indexes listed in Bursa Malaysia, i.e., the Asian palm index, Malaysian palm index, and Plantation index, spanning from January 2010 to June 2020. The impacts...

This article investigates comovement and contagions in the commodities markets. We examine the comovement by analyzing the unconditional correlation coefficients. We document that commodities tend to partially integrate. We perform contagion tests by identifying coexceedances and estimating...

This paper examines the effect of real-time global geopolitical risks (GPRs), acts (GPAs), and threats (GPTs) indices on monthly returns and volatility of several American commodity futures. By modeling volatility via an Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity...

The current paper examines the maturity effect which states that “the futures prices volatility increases as the futures contract approaches its maturity period”. As per maturity effect theory, when a contract approaches its delivery date, the flow of information affects the prices. The...

In 1987, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) began analyzing whether swaps were futures under the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA). If yes, over-the-counter (OTC) swaps would violate the CEA’s exchange trading requirement. Rather than address this in a proposed rulemaking, the CFTC...

With the transitions to overnight benchmarks as the main benchmarks in some currencies, futures based on overnight rates are becoming more common. The most traded futures on overnight rates settle against compounded rates. The pricing of those futures requires some convexity adjustments with an...

US dairy futures markets of milk, butter, cheese, and dry whey exhibit unique volatility patterns under the Federal Milk Marketing Order pricing scheme. We show dairy volatilities have a relatively low connectedness among themselves and a commodity index. Dairy futures markets respond to...

Like copper, corn, or crude oil, companies increasingly trade like commodities. Some investors — certain holders of debt, activist shareholders, and controlling shareholders, especially private equity funds — are focused solely on returns. In practice, this means that they care about the...

This paper comprehensively investigates the connection between oil futures volatility and the financial market based on a data-rich and model-rich environment, which contains traditional prediction models, machine learning models, and combination models. The results highlight the efficiency of...

This paper aims to study the correlation structure, key commodity and cluster characteristics of China's commodity markets during the period of the 2020-2021 global commodity price boom via applying Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) of commodity futures price indices to obtain high-frequency...

Derivatives are playing an increasing role within the trading ecosystem of Bitcoin markets. This includes futures that are traded on US regulated exchanges like the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and unregulated exchanges like Binance. Prior research on which bitcoin markets lead in price...

The shape of the futures term structure is essential to commodity hedgers and speculators as futures prices serve as a forecast of future spot prices. Commodity markets quotes futures prices on a selection of maturities and delivery periods. In this note, we investigate a Bayesian technique...

In order to tackle the non-availability of inflation futures data, we introduce the futures on the CPI proxy (FCP). Compared to over-the-counter inflation-linked derivatives, the FCP is a more accessible tool for inflation forecasting. The time series of the FCP chain is analysed by a two-factor...

This study decomposes a momentum factor (MOM) in the commodity futures market. A high-to-price (HTP) factor generates a higher Sharpe ratio than a price-to-high (PTH) factor. We uncover that the profitability mechanisms across three momentum factors are different. The positive returns on MOM and...

Several common properties shared by cryptocurrencies and precious metals, such as safe haven, hedge and diversification for risk assets, have been wildly discussed since the day Bitcoin was created in 2008. However, no studies have explored whether cryptocurrency market uncertainties can help to...

We investigate the determinants of different traders’ trading positions in the gold futures market. With a threshold value determined endogenously by our model, we find that when the gold futures price falls below the threshold, money managers adopt positive feedback trading strategies while...

The current state of the art in the central bank digital currency (CBDC) literature views indexes constructed from digital currency news to be fully informed about CBDC uncertainty and its impact on the financial system. We argue that the hedging behavior of participants in the currency futures...

Prior theory suggests a positive relation between volatility and market depth, while past empirical research finds contrasting results. This paper examines the relation between the volatility and the limit order book depth in commodity and foreign exchange futures markets during a turbulent time...

Over the last years, farmers have been increasingly exposed to income risk due to the volatility of the commodities prices. Among others, hedging in futures markets (i.e., financial markets) represents an available strategy for producers to cope with income risks at farm level. To better...

Since the collapse of the Metallgesellschaft AG due to hedging losses in 1993, energy practitioners have been concerned with the ability to hedge long-dated linear and non-linear oil liabilities with short-dated futures and options. This paper identifies a model-free non-parametric approach to...

This paper investigates the cross-section of expected commodity futures returns in China using a large panel of 13 individual factors. We find that 6 out of 13 individual factors produce positive and significant returns. To aggregate the information among these factors, we apply not only the...

This study focuses on the Indian gold futures market where primary participants hold sentimental value for the underlying asset and are globally ranked number two in terms of the largest private holdings in the physical form. The trade of gold futures relates to seasons, festivity, and...

This paper examines the effects of the nondiscretionary trading demands of VIX exchangetradedproducts (ETPs) issuers on the prices and volumes in the VIX futures. We find thatthe ETPs’ information-less, mechanical rebalancing of futures positions to maintain theconstant maturity of the index...

A new measure of hedging pressure in commodity options markets—commercial hedgers’ net short option exposure—predicts option returns and changes in the slope of implied volatility curves. Puts are more expensive, and calls are cheaper, when values of option hedging pressure are greater....

Winter storm Uri impacted large swaths of the Continental United States, including the State of Texas, over the period Feb. 13 -- Feb. 17, 2021. This research attempts to discern what the natgas and power commodity markets are anticipating for Texas for the First Quarter of 2022. As of this...

This paper develops a novel method to correct small-sample bias in autoregressive roots of AR(p) models. We evaluate median-bias properties and variability of the bias-adjusted parameters by examining the accuracy of bias-adjusted impulse responses. Our simulation results show that bias...

We study the price impact of order flow in the world’s largest soybean meal futures markets. Our intraday results indicate that incoming orders can be used to explain price changes and to significantly predict future price changes. Our results are shown to be robust to various order flow...

The classical theory of commodity price determination integrates myopic supply and demand on the one hand with competitive storage (speculation) under rational expectations on the other. Taking into account the fact that inventories mist; be non-negative, this paper derives from the theory...

This paper studies the problems of estimation and inference in the linear trend model: yt=à+þt+ut, where ut follows an autoregressive process with largest root þ, and þ is the parameter of interest. We contrast asymptotic results for the cases þþþ 1 and þ=1, and argue that the most...

This study examines the inflation-hedging ability of commodity futures. Applying a Markov-switching vector error correction model to a sample of commodity futures that cover the period between January 1983 and December 2017, we find that total commodity futures fail to provide a hedge against...