Climate change is reshaping sovereign risk and macroeconomic stability by amplifying fiscal and external fragilities. This paper develops a unified framework to assess how climate vulnerability and resilience jointly influence fiscal–external solvency. We construct a market-based...

Countries in the European Union's neighborhood, such as those in the Eastern Partnership (EaP), have a particular interest in attracting foreign direct investment (FDI) because investment inflows can guarantee them a number of advantages needed for accession. This paper proposes a comparative...

This paper employs dynamic panel models to investigate the impact of country risk on the financial stability of banks in Africa. Using country risk and bank specific data for 10 African countries over the period of 2000 and 2021, the results reveal that African countries have a high country risk...

This study examined the impact of country-risk factors on bank stock returns in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region countries. It also investigated whether Islamic banks differed from conventional banks and whether oil rent significantly moderated the risk-returns nexus. Using data...

This study investigates the nonlinear and regime-dependent relationship between climate policy uncertainty (CPU) and sovereign credit default swap (CDS) spreads across a panel of developed and emerging economies from February 2010 to March 2025. Utilizing the Quantile-on-Quantile Regression...

Research shows that foreign asset expropriation narrows long-term bond spreads, resulting in lower borrowing costs. However, no empirical studies have investigated the effects of expropriation on sovereign bond ratings. Bondholders and sovereign bond issuers track ratings by credit rating...

In response to the scarce evidence regarding herd behaviour in emerging and frontier debt markets, this paper investigates the potential mispricing of MENA sovereign risk. We explore whether this mispricing results from international investor herding, where MENA debt assets are collectively...

This study investigates the determinants that drive the volatility of the credit default swaps (CDS) of BRICIT (Brazil, Russia, India, China, Indonesia, and Turkey) nations as a proxy measure for sovereign risk. On the existence of cointegration, an unrestricted error correction model integrated...

This paper investigates the existence, magnitude and drivers of the sovereign greenium: the yield discount on sovereign and quasi-sovereign green bonds relative to conventional bonds. Using a dataset of 332 matched pairs of green and conventional bonds issued between 2014 and 2023 by sovereigns,...

How do banks respond to geopolitical risk, and is this response distinct from other macroeconomic risks? Using U.S. supervisory data and new geopolitical risk indices, we show that banks reduce cross-border lending to countries with elevated geopolitical risk but continue lending to those...

How do banks respond to geopolitical risk, and is this response distinct from other macroeconomic risks? Using U.S. supervisory data and new geopolitical risk indices, we show that banks reduce cross-border lending to countries with elevated geopolitical risk but continue lending to those...

This note examines the transmission of credit risk of banks to the sovereign using the collapse of the Silicon Valley Bank in March 2023-an event that reverberated globally across banking sectors-as an exogenous shock to identify the effect. The findings suggest a strong transmission of credit...

To analyze Bahamian sovereign spreads, a fundamentals-based model is estimated using data on emerging market economies. The main findings are: first, while both domestic and global covariates are important determinants of spreads, a sizeable effect comes from the interaction of global risk...

This paper studies the impact of central bank independence on sovereign borrowing, using an index that captures institutional constraints on central bank lending to the government across 155 countries from 1972 to 2023. The findings show that tighter lending to the executive significantly...

How do banks respond to geopolitical risk, and is this response distinct from other macroeconomic risks? Using U.S. supervisory data and new geopolitical risk indices, we show that banks reduce cross-border lending to countries with elevated geopolitical risk but continue lending to those...

Climate change poses a major risk to financial stability by affecting sovereign credit risk through transition and physical risks. Using data from 52 developed and developing countries over two decades, the study finds that transition risk leads to higher sovereign yields, especially in...

Emerging markets have long been viewed as high-risk destinations for investment, particularly investments in companies. Although macroeconomic and political stability risks are higher, this perception also reflects project-level risks, or uncertainty about repayment prospects. Investors, with...

This paper develops a sovereign default model with capital accumulation, long-term debt, and fiscal rules with two distortions: debt dilution and private underinvestment. Fiscal rules generate a long-run economic expansion because they mitigate default risk caused by dilution, which increases...

The aim of this research is to thoroughly investigate the influence of the 2025 Donald Trump Presidential Inauguration on informational efficiency of the U.S. exchange-traded fund market in the context of political risk. The data set includes daily observations for twenty U.S. Exchange-Traded...

We introduce a method that exploits some non-Gaussian features of structural shocks to identify structural vector autoregression (SVAR) models. More specifically, we propose combining inequality restrictions on the higher-order moments of the structural shocks of interest with other...

Political risk is a significant determinant of bond yields and economic growth in both developed and emerging markets and we develop a debt sustainability analysis model with both channels using a country ratings proxy of political risk. Political risk also affects a sovereign's willingness to...

A fundamental problem for sovereigns enacting climate policies is whether they can manage increasing debts as their economies suffer from adverse climate impacts. We develop stochastic debt sustainability analysis integrating a coupled climate-economy model with debt financing scenario...

We examine the 2025 U.S. debt limit episode through the lens of financial markets. First, we document an increase in trading activity in the U.S. sovereign CDS market, and we infer a probability of default from CDS premiums. We find that default risk reached 1% by the November 6 Presidential...