Search Results - subject_exact:"Country risk"

Equity risk premium in Lithuania's frontier market : integrating country risk and market drivers

Bonelli, Marco I. - 2026

This study quantifies Lithuania's Equity Risk Premium (ERP) by integrating Damodaran's country-risk premium (CRP) framework with a multiple regression on key market drivers. By using quarterly data from Q1 2015 to Q4 2024, the CRP model yields an implied cost of equity of 9.84%, corresponding to...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015636778

Supply-chain disruption, supplier-country health, and the reallocation of US import-value shares : monthly evidence under timing-disciplined measurement

McCarthy, Shawn; Alaghband, Gita - 2026

Supply-chain disruptions since 2018 renewed attention to supplier-country conditions; this paper examines whether deterioration in those conditions precedes changes in US import-value shares when each measure is dated to match the question asked. From 564,983 deduplicated news records...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016090645

Mapping and managing country-level risks in international manufacturing networks

Saretz, Benedikt - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015603651

Country risk and political risk under investigation - recent trends, prospects, and implications

Andreica, Iona Sorina; Bodea, Gabriela; Deceanu, Liviu … - 2024

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015636295

Long memory in Latin American sovereign risk : daily evidence on the EMBI

Asturias Schaub, Luis Rodrigo; Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; … - 2026

This paper analyses the long-memory properties of sovereign bond spreads in 17 Latin American countries as well as two regional aggregates using daily EMBI (Emerging Markets Bond Index) data from April 2013 to January 2026 (3,163 observations per series). Parametric methods show that all 19...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015654662

Fiscal assessments through the lens of firms : corporate perceptions and the transmission of fiscal policy

Hirs-Garzon, Jorge; Andrián, Leandro; Valencia, Oscar M. - 2026

This paper examines how firm perceptions influence the transmission of fiscal policy. Using natural language processing on corporate earnings calls from 51 countries over two decades, we construct Fiscal Perceptions Indicators (FPI) that capture the incidence, risk framing, and tone of fiscal...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015608805

Heterogeneous impact of geopolitical risk on foreign direct investment

Matsuura, Toshiyuki; Siregar, Rizki Nauli; Narjoko, … - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015608932

Kicking away the green ladder : the asymmetric sovereign risk from nature degradation

Wollenweber, Alexander; Wang, Dieter; Ranger, Nicola - 2026 - Version: March 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015609600

Determinants of sovereign bond issuance in emerging markets

Wong, Ka Lok; Manger, Mark S.; Panizza, Ugo - 2026

Emerging market economies (EMEs) regularly tap domestic and international capital markets through scheduled sovereign bond auctions. In this paper, we leverage a novel dataset covering over 75,000 sovereign issuance events and 20,000 securities from 20 EMEs between the early 2000s and 2023 to...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015611520

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Determinants of sovereign bond issuance in emerging markets

Wong, Ka Lok; Manger, Mark S.; Panizza, Ugo - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Monetary asymmetry and ESG governance in the Eurozone : mapping evolving risk narratives through bibliometric analysis

Garefalakis, Alexandros; Angelaki, Erasmia; … - 2026

This paper investigates how monetary and ESG-related risks-especially those stemming from asymmetric policy transmission across Eurozone economies-have evolved over time, with a focus on the post-COVID-19 era. Using a mixed-method bibliometric analysis of 216 peer-reviewed articles (1996-2025),...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015611568

Climate resilience and the adaptation trap : a macroeconomic framework for joint fiscal-external sustainability

Afonso, António; Alves, José; Jalles, João Tovar; … - 2026

Climate change is reshaping sovereign risk and macroeconomic stability by amplifying fiscal and external fragilities. This paper develops a unified framework to assess how climate vulnerability and resilience jointly influence fiscal–external solvency. We construct a market-based...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015586922

Climate change, climate policy, and the macroeconomy

Ploeg, Frederick van der; Rezai, Armon - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015675615

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Climate change, climate policy, and the macroeconomy

Ploeg, Frederick van der; Rezai, Armon - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Climate change, climate policy, and the macroeconomy

Ploeg, Frederick van der; Rezai, Armon - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Angebotskonzentration bei mineralischen Rohstoffen und Zwischenprodukten - potenzielle Preis- und Lieferrisiken : DERA-Rohstoffliste 2025

Bastian, Dennis; Bookhagen, Britta; Fritz, Alexander; … - 2026 - Datenstand: August 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015605007

Secured legitimacy : Deutsch-Asiatische bank's strategy for mitigating political risks in Chinese business (1945-1957)

Liu, Yi - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015620766

Bonds or Credits? : risk management and sovereign lending in the Euromarkets : evidence from Mexico, 1973-1982

Alverez, Sebastian; Molteni, Marco - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015640074

Credit rating agencies' views on China's Belt and Road Initiative

Ioannou, Stefanos; Keenan, Liam; Wójcik, Dariusz - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015641318

Sovereign risk with endogenous debt limits

Arce, Fernando; Villa, Alessandro T. - 2026

Why do countries set sovereign debt ceilings if they keep raising them? This paper shows that debt ceilings can serve as intermediate commitment devices that reduce expected dilution, thereby lowering spreads-and their volatility-even without reducing total borrowing. We propose a new sovereign...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015643954

Institutions and economic growth in 19th century Argentina : testing Alberdi's thesis

Ocampo, Emilio - 2026

This paper evaluates a largely overlooked thesis developed by Juan Bautista Alberdi of Argentina's 19th-century economic development using econometric time-series methods. Annual series of GDP per capita, export performance, and monthly London prices of bonds issued by the Republic of Argentina...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015644006

Are sovereign debts sustainable under energy transition?

Mammetti, Veronica; Zenios, Stauros Andrea; Morelli, Giacomo - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015644724

The contagion effect of natural disasters in the Sovereign CDS market : which causes?

Di Tommaso, Caterina; Foglia, Matteo; Pacelli, Vincenzo - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015647428

Banking regulation with risk of sovereign default

D'Erasmo, Pablo N.; Livshits, Igor; Schoors, Koen - 2024

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015573480

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Banking regulation with risk of sovereign default

D'Erasmo, Pablo N.; Livshits, Igor; Schoors, Koen - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Banking regulation with risk of sovereign default

D'Erasmo, Pablo N.; Livshits, Igor; Schoors, Koen - 2019

Book / Working Paper

Banking regulation with risk of sovereign default

D'Erasmo, Pablo N.; Livshits, Igor; Schoors, Koen - 2019

Book / Working Paper

Optimal default in a small open economy : Senegal's hidden debt crisis

Coulibaly, Louphou; Ndiaye, Abdoulaye - 2026

Hidden public liabilities can reprice sovereign risk abruptly upon revelation. We study optimal default following such a revelation in a quantitative sovereign default model and apply the framework to Senegal's 2024 debt audit, which revised government debt upward by 50 percentage points of GDP....

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015651315

Carbon risk and corporate creditworthiness : evidence from a major emerging economy

Borsuk, Marcin; Shrimali, Gireesh - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015651481

The adaptation imperative : climate change and sovereign credit risk

Burke, Matt; Mohaddes, Kamiar; Raissi, Mehdi - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015651533

De-risking investment for sustainable development : the role of development banks and emerging donors

Santos-Paulino, Amelia U.; Sharma, Prachi; Trentini, Claudia - 2026

Development finance institutions (DFIs) play a central role in financing infrastructure for sustainable development, yet their effects on project‑level risk allocation and private capital mobilization remain imperfectly understood. This paper examines how different DFIs and financial...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015651831

Sovereign green bonds : risk-mitigating sustainability instruments in emerging markets

Nevatia, Vedanshi - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015632226

Impact of climate vulnerability on fiscal risk : do religious tensions and financial development matter?

Saadaoui, Jamel; Beirne, John; Park, Donghyun; Uddin, … - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015632704

Clientelism, institutions and sovereign default

Azzimonti, Marina; Mitra, Nirvana - 2026 - This version: March 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015636809

Expansionary fiscal rules under sovereign risk

Esquivel, Carlos; Samano, Agustin - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015574597

Global risk aversion and the term premium gap in emerging market economies

Flaccadoro, Marco; Villa, Stefania - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015561050

Vanadium : Rohstoffrisikobewertung

Damm, Sophie - 2026 - Datenstand: November 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015650844

Mangan : Rohstoffrisikobewertung

Osbahr, Inga - 2026 - Datenstand: Oktober 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015650847

Navigating tail risks : the influence of geopolitical uncertainty on clean and carbon energy

Gabriel, Vítor Manuel de Sousa; Miralles-Quirós, … - 2026

This study examines the connection between geopolitical risk (GPR) and two categories of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) centered on energy. The aim is to assess how risks from wars, political conflicts, and terrorist activities influence the behavior of these financial assets. We analyze the...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015670729

The evolving nexus: sovereigns, banks and NBFIs$Stefan Avdjiev, Bryan Hardy and Maximilian Jager

Avdjiev, Stefan; Hardy, Bryan; Jager, Maximilian - 2026 - This version: July 14, 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015673746

Wars, threats, and the sovereign bond market

Federle, Jonathan-Julian; Greenwood, Robin; Meyer, Josefin - 2026

We study how wars and military threats affect financial markets. Leveraging more than 300,000 monthly price observations since 1822, we create an external currency bond index for more than 90 countries - the EXBI. Using the EXBI, we document large effects of wars on returns and borrowing costs....

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015670016

Geopolitical risk and emerging market sovereign risk premia

Gamboa-Estrada, Fredy; Romero, José Vicente - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015672867

Sovereign ratings and risk pricing, agency divergences in the European Union

Afonso, António; Alves, José; Gkonkas, Periklēs; … - 2026

Using annual EU-27 data for 1995-2024, we examine whether sovereign ratings mainly reflect common macro-fiscal fundamentals or whether agency-specific departures from that benchmark are also priced into sovereign funding conditions. Pooled ordered probits and a machine-learning diagnostic layer...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015675116

Debt service vs. debt stock in sovereign credit ratings : a systematic review and meta-regression analysis

Abdelmohsen, Mohamed; Abdelmohsen, Hadir; Ahmed, … - 2026

Sovereign credit ratings are central to a country's access to international capital markets, yet the relative informational content of debt service obligations versus aggregate debt stock for rating outcomes remains empirically unsettled. This systematic review synthesises econometric evidence...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015676330

Pooling catastrophic mortality risk in smallholder livestock systems : an ASEAN-5 sovereign risk pool and catastrophe bond

Kiatanantha Lounkaew - 2026

Single-country livestock-mortality insurance programs in smallholder economies face a structural problem: under regime-switching mortality, the capital needed to stay solvent in a bad year can approach annual premium revenue, so public budgets become the insurer of last resort. This paper...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016059158

Business as usual? : a replication of Andrews, Pritchett, and Woolcock (Building state capability: evidence, analysis, action, 2017)

Murphy, Ryan - 2026

In Building State Capability, Matt Andrews, Lant Pritchett, and Michael Woolcock argue that there has been little institutional development in recent decades ("The Big Stuck"). A subsequent blog post by Pritchett (2020) shores up its empirical foundations, with some emphasis on results derived...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016060915

Animal spirits or political risk? : separating confidence channels in an emerging economy

Odendaal, Hanjo - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016060661

Two decades of research on sustainability and sovereign ratings : trends, research puzzles and future directions

Arfa, Insaf; Khiari, Wided; Ballouk, Houssein; Ben … - 2026

The article provides a systematic and bibliometric review of the literature on the relationship between countries' ESG scores and their sovereign ratings. The study, which follows the PRISMA 2020 guidelines, employs a bibliometric methodology using a sample of 168 peer-reviewed articles sourced...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016061279

Fiscal sustainability and sovereign risk pricing : evidence from time-varying fiscal reaction

Owusu, Benjamin Kwaw - 2026

This paper investigates whether fiscal sustainability is priced in sovereign bond markets. For this purpose, we construct a standard measure of fiscal sustainability for 21 EU countries, namely, a time-varying fiscal reaction coefficient measuring the response of the cyclically adjusted primary...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016071083

Sovereign defaults and trade : external vs. domestic creditors

Essers, Dennis; Marchesi, Silvia; Okatan, Nejat G. - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016064070

Beyond sovereign risk : a frontier market valuation model (FMVM) for contextualizing equity cost in structurally constrained markets

Bonelli, Marco - 2026

This study introduces the frontier market valuation model (FMVM), a novel and exploratory framework designed to more accurately estimate the cost of equity in structurally constrained markets. Traditional models such as CAPM and Damodaran's country risk premium (CRP) fail to capture the layered...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016081012

Tourism Resilience in Emerging Countries: An Econometric Analysis of Risk Factors

Meyer, Natanya; Meyer, Daniel F.; Kallmuenzer, Andreas; … - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016078497

Sovereign Risk and Natural Disaster Shocks : Unraveling the Domestic Yield Curve Response

Kpodar, Kangni - 2026

This paper investigates the impact of natural disasters on the domestic sovereign yield curve, shedding light on their distinct transmission channels. Using a sample of 72 developing countries during the period 2000-20, and leveraging a newly compiled dataset on domestic treasury bill and bond...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016087562

Peer Pressure : How Relative Debt Drives Emerging Market Sovereign Spreads

Avila-Yiptong, Carmen - 2026

This paper shows that sovereign bond spreads are shaped not only by absolute debt levels but also by a country’s relative debt position within its peer group. Using panel fixed effects for over 80 emerging and developing economies over 1993-2024, we find that relative debt—especially...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016087671

Unlocking the path to creditworthiness : the nexus of national governance and credit ratings in emerging markets

Pinto, Bruno Magri Magalhães; Marques, Vagner Antônio; … - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015668940

Corporate governance and cash holdings : new evidence from Asian markets

Athari, Seyed Alireza - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015671579