Does the primacy of the U.S. dollar affect the pricing of risks in the currency options market? Our findings rely on a daily option panel of 15 currencies. This analysis reveals that (i) put risk premiums are negative, implying across-the-board interest in hedging foreign currency depreciations;...

This study introduces the intraday implied volatility (IV) for pricing the Australian dollar (AUD) options. The IV is estimated using the at-the-money one-month, two-month, and three-month maturity AUD options traded in the opening, midday, and closing period of a trading day. The...

This paper analyzes whether and how central banks can use currency options to lower exchange rate volatility and maintain (implicit) target zones in foreign exchange markets. It argues that selling rather than buying options will result in market makers dynamically hedging their long option...

This paper examines the cross-dynamics of volatility term structures implied by foreign exchange options. The data used in the empirical analysis consist of daily observations of implied volatilities for OTC options on the euro, Japanese yen, British pound, Swiss franc, and Canadian dollar,...

This paper focuses on changes in the currency options market's assessment of likely future exchange rate developments around the times of official interventions in the JPY/USD exchange rate. We estimate the options-implied risk-neutral density functions (RNDs) using daily OTC quotes for options...

This paper uses currency option data from the BMF, the Commodities and Futures exchange in Sao Paulo, Brazil, to investigate market expectations on the Brazilian Real-U.S. dollar exchange rate from October 1994 through July 1997. Using options data, we derive implied probability density...

This dissertation consists of three papers referring to the pricing of insurance-linked securities, while a fourth one deals with investigating the dynamics of foreign exchange implied volatility and correlation surfaces. The first paper proposes a novel risk-neutral pricing approach for...

Chapter 1. Introduction of Thesis -- Chapter 2. Literature Review -- Chapter 3. Methodology and Data -- Chapter 4. Implied Volatility Forecasting Realized Volatility -- Chapter 5. Implied Volatility Estimating Currency Options Price -- Chapter 6. Conclusion of Thesis.

We investigate how currency denomination a ects the price of credit risky securities of the same issuer. We focus on eurozone sovereign quanto spreads, i.e., di erences in credit default swap (CDS) premiums denominated in U.S. dollar and Euro of the same reference entity. Quanto spreads of...

The Emerging Market Economies are vulnerable to adverse external shocks. Such shocks cause excessive volatility in foreign exchange markets. Faced with high volatility, the central banks in EMEs often end up, in futility, depleting their foreign exchange reserves by selling dollars to restore...

We present a new, theoretically motivated, forecasting variable for exchange rates that is based on the prices of quanto index contracts, and show via panel regressions that the quanto forecast variable is a statistically and economically significant predictor of currency appreciation. We also...

This paper examines the dynamic interactions between the government bond yields of Germany, Japan and the US and their exchange rate expectations anticipated in the currency options, i.e., risk reversals (put premia) of the US dollar versus the yen and euro. Short-term, one-way information flow...

The paper is on toxic foreign exchange options problem which occurred in Poland just prior to - and after the outbreak of the recent crisis. Especially Polish enterprises were severely stroke by transactions on fx - and interest rate - derivatives contracted with their banks. Poland was the only...

This paper presents a new modeling approach for credit quanto spreads, covering credit default swap quanto spreads, bond quanto spreads and bond redenomination spreads. Credit quanto spreads are implied from a hazard rate diffusion model and a FX rate jump diffusion model, where the jumps are...

This paper presents a general optimization framework to forecast put and call option prices by exploiting the volatility of the options prices. The approach is flexible in that different objective functions for predicting the underlying volatility can be modified and adapted in the proposed...

What happens when the anchoring and adjustment heuristic of Tversky and Kahneman (1974) is incorporated in currency option models? Surprisingly, it generates the peculiar features of currency smiles within the Black-Scholes framework, while adding power to stochastic volatility and jump...

What happens when the anchoring and adjustment heuristic of Tversky and Kahneman (1974) is incorporated in currency option models? Surprisingly, it generates the peculiar features of currency smiles within the Black-Scholes framework, while adding power to stochastic volatility and jump...

We analyze the implied volatility smile of a lognormal distribution on a on a 6 – month EUR/USD call currency option contract using the ratio of strike and share price. There is significant time variation in the implied volatility smile and the traditional Black – Scholes model can not...

We analyze the implied volatility smile of a lognormal distribution on a on a 6 – month EUR/USD call currency option contract using a random standard normal variable. There is significant time variation in the implied volatility smile and the traditional Black – Scholes model can not explain...

The sheer existence of EUR/CHF put options with strike prices below the EUR/CHF 1.20 floor, trading at non-zero cost, challenged the full credibility of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) in enforcing the lower barrier implemented in September 6, 2011 and abandoned on January 15, 2015. We estimate...

Certain exotic options cannot be valued using closed-form solutions or even by numerical methods assuming constant volatility. Many exotics are priced in a local volatility framework. Pricing under local volatility has become a field of extensive research in finance, and various models are...