This paper presents the first comprehensive quantitative account of epidemic cholera in 19th-century Germany. Using a new dataset based on archival sources, it documents nearly half a million cholera deaths, along with outbreak timing and population at risk, across 2,685 cities and 852 rural...

This paper evaluates the impacts of trade liberalization on the marital and fertility choices of women in Vietnam. Applying a regional exposure approach, we leverage the U.S.-Vietnam Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA) as an exogenous and positive shock to the nation’s export growth. Our results...

We investigate the relationship between immigration and right-wing populism, which we characterize as a self-reinforcing process. Anti-immigrant rhetoric and populist policies lead to a deterioration in the skill level of immigrants. This in turn fuels populist support. Historical and...

This report examines the state of pension and social insurance systems globally, focusing on old-age income protection. It analyzes expenditure, coverage, adequacy of benefits, and sustainability of both contributory and non-contributory pension schemes. The report highlights the impact of...

Fertility rates have declined dramatically across almost all highincome countries over the past decades. This has raised concerns about future economic prospects. Indeed, fully- and semi-endogenous growth models imply that a shrinking workforce would lead to declining income growth and perhaps...

Long-term projections are the bedrock of any analysis looking at the sustainability of public finances. This paper computes the changes in economic growth in individual European Union (EU) countries needed for government debt-to-GDP ratios to stay on their baseline trajectories (taken from the...

Russia's Maternity Capital program, launched in 2007, is a key policy with an obvious pronatalist focus aimed at countering the country's long-term depopulation trend by encouraging families to have more children. Initially, providing financial incentives for second and subsequent births. The...

Europe's demographic shift is putting increasing pressure on long-term care (LTC) systems and raising concerns about the sustainability of LTC financing. This paper analyses Austria's LTC system, particularly its universal long-term care allowance (LTCA), and uses a dynamic microsimulation model...

Kuznets predicts an economy's return to low inequality once structural transformation has peaked. I explore some headwinds to falling inequality in developing countries given their thorough engagement in the globalized market Kuznets could not have foreseen. Headwinds include plutocrats' abuse...

The optimal capital income tax rate has been shown to be nonzero in overlapping generations (OLG) models, as it helps redistribute income between cohorts and individuals with different labor supply elasticities and individual productivities. We show in a medium-scale OLG model that the optimal...

This study examines how economic growth, travel, global connection, and changes in population impact the environmental footprint in seven countries, including Russia, the US, China, France, the UK, Pakistan, and India, from 1995 to 2023. The results show a significant link between Granger’s...

We estimate the future demand for public school classrooms using new school children population projections for 82 provinces and 33 urbanized cities of the Philippines up to 2060. A return to replacement-level fertility from the current 1.9 total fertility rate (TFR) is expected to ease demand...

This study examines how demographic changes lead to different household structures and housing choices among different age groups. It argues that the cointegration of demography, housing market, and wealth have shaped housing demand in the country over time. The results have important often...

What sparked humanity's leap from stagnation to prosperity? What lies at the core of inequality among nations? Unified Growth Theory explores the evolution of societies over the entire course of human history. It uncovers the universal wheels of change that have governed the journey of humanity,...

This study is the result of a response to a policy request submitted by the European Union Delegation to Cameroon to the Knowledge Centre for Biodiversity (KCBD) through the KCBD ticketing system. We summarised changes in human population density (2010 - 2020), irrecoverable carbon stocks (2010...

Demographers use microsimulation for studying individual life courses and their attributes; events are specified to be the result of stochastic processes based on predetermined probabilistic rules. In this study, we developed and validated a microsimulation model to reconstruct individual's life...

Demographic statistics are among the most popular data Eurostat produces, and they are important for almost every area of policy. This publication shows what official European statistics can tell us about how the population is developing, ageing, and much more. It provides possibilities to...

What sparked humanity’s leap from stagnation to prosperity? What lies at the core of inequality among nations? Unified Growth Theory explores the evolution of societies over the entire course of human history. It uncovers the universal wheels of change that have governed the journey of...

This report provides estimates of structural (demographic) housing demand at a regional level. Any assessment of structural future housing demand relies on assumptions around (1) population growth, (2) headship rates (the typical household size) and (3) rates of obsolescence of the housing...

Many developing countries depend crucially on open-access renewable natural resources (NR). Trade is generally viewed as hurting the long-term health of NR in commodity-exporting countries. I examine whether trade might be beneficial in the case of population growth. Dynamic general equilibrium...

This paper studies how demographics affect aggregate labor market power, the urban wage premium and the spatial concentration of population, I develop a quantitative spatial model in which labor market competitiveness depends on the demographic composition of the local workforce, Using highly...

Lithuania's immediate fiscal challenges are national security and higher costs of borrowing, but fiscal prospects are further exacerbated by long-term pressures stemming from climate change and a shrinking and aging population. The country has experienced a rapidly decreasing population-from 3.7...

Two broad contrasting demographic trends present challenges for economies globally: countries with aging populations, often advanced economies and increasingly emerging markets, anticipate a significant shrinking of the labor force, with implications for growth, economic stability, and public...

Purpose Our paper studies a central issue with a long history in economics: the relationship between population and economic growth. We analyze the joint dynamics of economic and demographic growth in 111 countries during the period 1960-2019. Design/methodology/approach Using the concept of...