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Year of publication
Subject
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Early warning system 1,763 Frühwarnsystem 1,745 Financial crisis 413 Finanzkrise 412 Theorie 292 Theory 292 Risikomanagement 270 Risk management 266 Bankenkrise 249 Banking crisis 247 Deutschland 235 Germany 234 Currency crisis 226 Währungskrise 223 Welt 216 World 215 Prognoseverfahren 199 Forecasting model 197 Economic indicator 172 Wirtschaftsindikator 172 early warning system 130 Insolvency 101 Insolvenz 101 Bank 98 Bankrisiko 96 Bank risk 94 Krisenmanagement 94 Systemic risk 91 Kreditrisiko 90 Crisis management 89 Credit risk 88 Strategisches Management 88 USA 88 United States 88 Financial services 87 Finanzdienstleistung 87 Systemrisiko 86 Emerging economies 79 Schwellenländer 78 EU countries 77
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Online availability
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Free 635 Undetermined 241
Type of publication
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Book / Working Paper 1,009 Article 892 Journal 6
Type of publication (narrower categories)
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Article in journal 564 Aufsatz in Zeitschrift 564 Graue Literatur 394 Non-commercial literature 394 Working Paper 328 Arbeitspapier 300 Aufsatz im Buch 266 Book section 266 Hochschulschrift 205 Thesis 177 Bibliografie enthalten 80 Bibliography included 80 Collection of articles of several authors 38 Sammelwerk 38 Case study 34 Fallstudie 34 Handbook 22 Handbuch 22 Aufsatzsammlung 21 Conference paper 18 Konferenzbeitrag 18 Amtsdruckschrift 13 Government document 13 Article 10 Konferenzschrift 8 Ratgeber 8 Guidebook 6 Conference proceedings 5 Lehrbuch 4 Reprint 4 Textbook 4 Accompanied by computer file 3 Amtliche Publikation 3 Collection of articles written by one author 3 Elektronischer Datenträger als Beilage 3 Sammlung 3 Systematic review 3 Übersichtsarbeit 3 Company information 2 Firmeninformation 2
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Language
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English 1,194 German 600 Undetermined 84 Spanish 15 French 6 Polish 4 Russian 4 Romanian 2 Portuguese 1 Swedish 1
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Author
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Dreger, Christian 16 Oet, Mikhail V. 15 Sarlin, Peter 15 Detken, Carsten 13 Knedlik, Tobias 13 Kuper, Gerard H. 13 Ong, Stephen J. 13 Drehmann, Mathias 12 Gramlich, Dieter 12 Karim, Dilruba 12 Kholodilin, Konstantin A. 12 Peltonen, Tuomo 10 Šmídková, Kateřina 10 Becker, Axel 9 Candelon, Bertrand 9 Fratzscher, Marcel 9 Herrera, Helios 9 Jacobs, Jan 9 Krystek, Ulrich 9 Ordoñez, Guillermo 9 Trebesch, Christoph 9 Alessi, Lucia 8 Boonman, Tjeerd M. 8 Davis, E. Philip 8 Mayes, David G. 8 Menkhoff, Lukas 8 Savona, Roberto 8 Tölö, Eero 8 Baetge, Jörg 7 Beckmann, Daniela 7 Bianco, Timothy 7 Bussière, Matthieu 7 Cornacchia, Wanda 7 Dufrénot, Gilles 7 Hurlin, Christophe 7 Rohrbeck, René 7 Rusnák, Marek 7 Schweinitz, Gregor von 7 Stierle, Jürgen 7 Stremmel, Hanno 7
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Institution
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International Monetary Fund (IMF) 24 Internationaler Währungsfonds / Monetary and Capital Markets Department 7 Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München 7 National Bureau of Economic Research 6 World Bank Group 6 Compagnie française d'assurance pour le commerce extérieur 5 EconWPA 5 International Monetary Fund 4 Internationaler Währungsfonds 4 Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS), Government of the Philippines 4 C.F. Müller Verlag 3 Denkfabrik <Frankfurt, Main> 3 HAL 3 Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden 3 European Central Bank 2 FAO 2 Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) 2 Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH) 2 Murmann Publishers GmbH 2 University of the West Indies at Cave Hill, Barbados / Institute of Social and Economic Research 2 AMACOM 1 Access Economics Pty Limited <Canberra> 1 Asian Development Bank 1 Banco Central do Brasil 1 Center for Advanced Research in Finance and Banking (CARFIB), Academia de Studii Economice din Bucureşti 1 DIW Berlin (Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung) 1 Deutsche Bank Research 1 Deutsche Rohstoffagentur 1 Deutsches Aktieninstitut 1 Europäische Kommission / Beobachtungsstelle für Drogen und Drogensucht 1 Europäische Kommission / Generaldirektion Unternehmen 1 Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas 1 Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry 1 Finanz Colloquium Heidelberg 1 First Secretary of State 1 Forschungsinstitut Betriebliche Bildung 1 Forum Berufsbildungsforschung <4, 1999, Paderborn> 1 Frankfurt School of Finance and Management 1 Gottfried Wilhelm Leibniz Universität Hannover 1 Great Britain / Dept of Economic Affairs 1
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Published in...
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IMF working papers 26 IMF Working Papers 22 Europäische Hochschulschriften / 5 19 Working paper series / European Central Bank 16 Szenarioanalysen und Stresstests in der Bank- und Versicherungspraxis : regulatorische Anforderungen, Umsetzung, Steuerung 15 Journal of financial stability 14 ECB Working Paper 13 IMF Working Paper 13 Journal of banking & finance 13 SpringerLink / Bücher 13 IMF country report 11 IMF working paper 11 KSI : Krisen-, Sanierungs- und Insolvenzberatung ; Wirtschaft, Recht, Steuern 10 Frühwarnindikatoren und Krisenfrühaufklärung : Konzepte zum präventiven Risikomanagement 9 Gabler Edition Wissenschaft 9 Journal of international money and finance 9 CESifo working papers 8 Controlling : Zeitschrift für erfolgsorientierte Unternehmenssteuerung 8 Erfolg beim Management virtueller Organisationen : durch Frühwarnung Risiken vermeiden 7 International journal of finance & economics : IJFE 7 MPRA Paper 7 Working paper series 7 Applied economics 6 Der Betrieb 6 Economics and finance working paper series 6 Economics letters 6 IWH Discussion Papers 6 International journal of forecasting 6 NBER working paper series 6 Policy research working paper : WPS 6 Risiko-Manager 6 Vorausschau und Technologieplanung : 2. Symposium für Vorausschau und Technologieplanung, Heinz-Nixdorf-Institut ; 9. und 10. November 2006, Schloss Neuhardenberg 6 World Bank E-Library Archive 6 Applied economics letters 5 DNB working paper 5 Economic systems 5 Ensayos sobre política económica 5 IWH-Diskussionspapiere 5 International finance discussion papers 5 Journal of policy modeling : JPMOD ; a social science forum of world issues 5
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Source
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ECONIS (ZBW) 1,746 RePEc 119 EconStor 40 BASE 1 ArchiDok 1
Showing 1 - 50 of 1,907
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Comparing parametric, semi parametric and non-parametric early warning systems for banking crisis: Indian context
Gupta, Neha; Kumar, Arya - In: Global business & economics review 26 (2022) 2, pp. 111-134
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An early warning system for currency crises in emerging countries
Ferdous, Lutfa Tilat; Kamal, Khnd Md Mostafa; Ahsan, Amirul - In: Journal of risk and financial management : JRFM 15 (2022) 4, pp. 1-25
In this study we develop an early warning system (EWS) to forecast currency crises in emerging countries in Asia and Latin America, using logit regression on monthly data from 1992 to 2011. We found that macroeconomic and institutional variables are valuable indicators for forecasting crises....
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Early warning system for the European insurance sector
Danieli, Lorenzo; Jakubik, Petr - In: Ekonomický časopis : časopis pre ekonomickú … 70 (2022) 1, pp. 3-21
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How effective is Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure (MIP) in predicting negative macroeconomic phenomen?
Biegun, Krzysztof; Karwowski, Jacek; Luty, Piotr - In: European research studies 24 (2021) 3, pp. 822-837
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Anticipation of currency crisis in Iran economy with the use of an early warning system
Farzin, Fatemeh; Googerdchian, Ahmad; Saffari, Babak - In: Iranian economic review : journal of University of Tehran 25 (2021) 1, pp. 69-83
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Macroeconomic perspective on constructing financial vulnerability indicator in China
Kuek, Tai-Hock; Puah, Chin-Hong; M. Affendy Arip; … - In: Journal of business economics and management 22 (2021) 1, pp. 181-196
This paper attempts to develop a financial vulnerability indicator for China as a barometer for the state of financial vulnerability in the Chinese financial market, possibly for real-time application. Twelve variables from different sectors are utilised to extract a common vulnerability...
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The highs and the lows : bank failures in Sweden through inflation and deflation, 1914-1926
Kenny, Sean; Ögren, Anders; Zhao, Liang - 2023
This paper revisits the Swedish banking crisis (1919-26) that materialized as post war deflation replaced wartime inflation (1914-18). Inspired by Fisher's 'debt deflation theory', we employ survival analysis to 'predict' which banks would fail, given certain ex-ante bank characteristics. Our...
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Random forest versus logit models : which offers better early warning of fiscal stress?
Jarmulska, Barbara - 2020
This study seeks to answer whether it is possible to design an early warning system framework that can signal the risk of fiscal stress in the near future, and what shape such a system should take. To do so, multiple models based on econometric logit and the random forest models are designed and...
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Early warning early action for the banking solvency risk in the COVID-19 pandemic era : a case study of Indonesia
Hidayat, Taufiq; Masyita, Dian; Nidar, Sulaeman Rahman; … - In: Economies : open access journal 10 (2022) 1, pp. 1-21
The COVID-19 pandemic has affected people's lives and increased the banking solvency risk. This research aimed to build an early warning and early action simulation model to mitigate the solvency risk using the system dynamics methodology and the Powersim Studio 10© software. The addition of an...
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Housing and credit misalignments in a two-market disequilibrium framework
Karmelavičius, Jaunius; Mikaliūnaitė-Jouvanceau, Ieva; … - 2022
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Housing and credit misalignments in a two-market disequilibrium framework
Karmelavičius, Jaunius; Mikaliūnaitė-Jouvanceau, Ieva; … - 2022
During the COVID-19 pandemic, house prices and mortgage credit rose at a longunseen pace. It is unclear, however, whether such increases are warranted by the underlying market and macroeconomic fundamentals. This paper offers a new structural two-market disequilibrium model that can be estimated...
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Entropy as leading indicator for extreme systemic risk events
Lupu, Radu; Lupu, Iulia; Stamule, Tanase; Roman, Mihai - In: Romanian journal of economic forecasting 25 (2022) 4, pp. 58-73
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Strengthening Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Uzbekistan : A Road Map
World Bank Group - 2022
The road map presents a potential pathway to strengthen Uzbekistan's national hydrometeorological (hydromet) and multi-hazard early warning systems and services, based on the needs of the user community. It is based on a technical evaluation and assessment of the needs and capacities of...
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Predicting dropout from higher education : evidence from Italy
Delogu, Marco; Lagravinese, Raffaele; Paolini, Dimitri; … - 2022
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Early warning systems for banking crisis and sovereign risk
Străchinaru, Adina-Ionela - In: Journal of financial studies & research : JFSR 2022 (2022), pp. 1-9
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Hot off the press : news-implied sovereign default risk
Dim, Chukwuma; Koerner, Kevin; Wolski, Marcin; Zwart, Sanne - 2022 - This version: March 2022
We develop a sovereign default risk index using natural language processing techniques and 10 million news articles covering over 100 countries. The index is a highfrequency measure of countries' default risk, particularly for those lacking marketbased measures: it correlates with sovereign CDS...
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New forecasting methods for an old problem : predicting 147 years of systemic financial crises
Plessis, Emile du; Fritsche, Ulrich - 2022
A reflection on the lackluster growth over the decade since the Global Financial Crisis has renewed interest in preventative measures for a long-standing problem. Advances in machine learning algorithms during this period present promising forecasting solutions. In this context, the paper...
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Early warning models for systemic banking crises : can political indica-tors improve prediction?
Tran Huynh; Übelmesser, Silke - 2022
This study provides the first attempt to evaluate whether a logit early warning system (EWS) for systemic banking crises can produce better predictions when political indicators are used alongside traditional macro-financial indicators. Based on a dataset covering 32 advanced economies for the...
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Adaptive early warning systems : an axiomatic approach
Bhimjee, Diptes C. P. - In: Journal of central banking theory and practice 11 (2022) 2, pp. 145-164
The U.S. Subprime Crisis and the subsequent Great Recession have highlighted a renewed interest in the proper design and implementation of Early Warning Systems (E.W.S.), in order to help deter the onset of subsequent extreme financial events, through the implementation of adequate crisis...
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The global bank stress test
Ding, Xiaodan; Groß, Marco; Krznar, Ivo; Laliotis, … - 2022
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Hunger hotspots : FAO-WFP early warnings on acute food insecurity : June to September 2022 Outlook
FAO; Welternährungsprogramm - 2022
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Consumer confidence and real economic growth in the Eurozone
Borisov, Lachezar - In: Baltic Journal of Economic Studies 8 (2022) 3, pp. 7-13
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Approaching European supervisory risk assessment with SupTech : a proposal of an early warning system
Guerra, Pedro; Castelli, Mauro; Côrte-Real, Nadine - In: Risks : open access journal 10 (2022) 4, pp. 1-23
Risk analysis and scenario testing are two of the core activities carried out by economists at central banks. With the increasing adoption of machine learning to enhance decision-support systems, and the amount of collected data spiking, institutions provide countless use-cases for the...
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Did the COVID-19 pandemic change the willingness to pay for an early warning system for infectious diseases in Europe?
Himmler, Sebastian; Exel, N. J. A. van; Brouwer, Werner … - In: The European journal of health economics 23 (2022) 1, pp. 81-94
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Towards Observation- and Model-Based Early Warning Systems for Meteotsunami Mitigation : A Case Study of Extreme Event in Korea
Kim, Myung-Seok; Woo, Seung-Buhm; Eom, Hyunmin; You, … - 2022
A traveling air pressure disturbance of several hPa for a short period (5–10 min) can generate tsunami-like waves in coastal areas owing to a multi-resonant mechanism. Pressure-forced meteotsunamis have been reported over the Korean Peninsula on a regular basis in recent years; however, the...
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Smart Financial Regulation : Responding to Early Warning Signals
Michie, Ranald; Akinbami, Folarin; Cherry, Brett; … - 2022
The UK financial sector is a highly competitive system that has, historically, demonstrated resilience to crisis. All that changed with the banking crisis of 2007-08, affecting not just individual banks but a whole array of interconnected financial institutions, leading to a panic that spread...
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Financial Cycles – Early Warning Indicators of Banking Crises?
Chen, Sally; Svirydzenka, Katsiaryna - 2022
Can the upturns and downturns in financial variables serve as early warning indicators of banking crises? Using data from 59 advanced and emerging economies, we show that financial overheating can be detected in real time. Equity prices and output gap are the best leading indicators in advanced...
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Constructing Early Warning Indicators for Banks Using Machine Learning Models
Tarkocin, Coskun; Donduran, Murat - 2022
This research contributes to bank liquidity risk management by employing supervised machine learning models to provide banks with early warnings of liquidity stress using market-based indicators. Identifying increasing levels of stress as early as possible provides management with a crucial...
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Country & sector risks handbook ... : major trends of the world economy : analysis and forecast for ... countries and ... sectors
Compagnie française d'assurance pour le commerce extérieur - [2022]-: [Boix-Colombes] : [Coface] - 2022-
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Artificial neural networks for developing early warning system for banking system : Indian context
Gupta, Neha; Kumar, Arya - In: International journal of economics and business … 23 (2022) 2, pp. 229-254
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Random forest versus logit models : which offers better early warning of fiscal stress?
Jarmulska, Barbara - In: Journal of forecasting 41 (2022) 3, pp. 455-490
Persistent link: https://ebtypo.dmz1.zbw/10013166154
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Predicting financial crises with machine learning methods
Liu, Lanbiao; Chen, Chen; Wang, Bo - In: Journal of forecasting 41 (2022) 5, pp. 871-910
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Exposition, climax, denouement : life-cycle evaluation of the recent financial crisis in the EU by linking the ESRB financial crisis database to the European Commission's Macroecon...
Erhart, Szilard - 2019
The paper investigates the life-cycle of the 2008-2009 financial crisis by linking the Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure (MIP) Scoreboard of the European Commission to the crisis database of the European Systemic Risk Board (ESRB). The novelty of the analysis is that early warning capacity of...
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An evaluation of early warning models for systemic banking crises : does machine learning improve predictions?
Beutel, Johannes; List, Sophia; Schweinitz, Gregor von - 2019
This paper compares the out-of-sample predictive performance of different early warning models for systemic banking crises using a sample of advanced economies covering the past 45 years. We compare a benchmark logit approach to several machine learning approaches recently proposed in the...
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Determinants of currency crises in the Republic of Serbia
Marjanović, Ivana; Marković, Milan M. - In: Zbornik radova Ekonomskog Fakulteta u Rijeci : časopis … 37 (2019) 1, pp. 191-212
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Predicting bank distress in the UK with machine learning
Suss, Joel; Treitel, Henry - 2019
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Predicting systemic financial crises with recurrent neural networks
Tölö, Eero - 2019
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The Latent Diffusion Network among National Parliaments in the Early Warning System of the European Union
Malang, Thomas; Leifeld, Philip - In: JCMS: Journal of Common Market Studies 59 (2021) 4, pp. 873-890
Since the Treaty of Lisbon, national parliamentary chambers in the European Union can issue reasoned opinions on legislative proposals by the European Commission. These individual reasoned opinions lead to a review if at least one third of all chambers raise such concerns. Hence, coordination...
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The appropriateness of the macroeconomic imbalance procedure for Central and Eastern European Countries
Dany-Knedlik, Geraldine; Kämpfe, Martina; Knedlik, Tobias - In: Empirica 48 (2021) 1, pp. 123-139
The European Commission’s Scoreboard of Macroeconomic Imbalances is a rare case of a publicly released early warning system. It was published first time in 2012 by the European Commission as a reaction to public debt crises in Europe. So far, the Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure takes a...
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Financial threat profiles of industrial enterprises in Poland
Kaczmarek, Jarosław; Náñez Alonso, Sergio Luis; … - In: Oeconomia Copernicana 12 (2021) 2, pp. 463-498
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Early warning models of banking crises : VIX and high profits
Bańbuła, Piotr; Pietrzak, Marcin - In: Central European journal of economic modelling and … 13 (2021) 4, pp. 381-403
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A liquidity risk early warning indicator for Italian banks : a machine learning approach
Drudi, Maria Ludovica; Nobili, Stefano - 2021
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Using machine learning to create an early warning system for welfare recipients
Sansone, Dario; Zhu, Anna - 2021
Using high-quality nation-wide social security data combined with machine learning tools, we develop predictive models of income support receipt intensities for any payment enrolee in the Australian social security system between 2014 and 2018. We show that off-the-shelf machine learning...
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Finding a needle in a haystack: do early warning systems for sudden stops work
Collodel, Umberto - 2021
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Preparing for extreme weather in the Eastern Caribbean : what role for forecast-based early action?
Wilkinson, Emily; Arvis, Blandine; Mendler de Suarez, Janot - 2021
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Scalable early warning systems for school dropout prevention : evidence from a 4.000-school randomized controlled trial
Haimovich, Francisco; Vazquez, Emmanuel; Adelman, Melissa - 2021
Across many low- and middle-income countries, a sizable share of young people drop out of school before completing a full course of basic education. Early warning systems that accurately identify students at risk of dropout and support them with targeted interventions have shown results and are...
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7-Tage- oder Hospitalisierungsinzidenz? : die "risikoadjustierte Inzidenz" als alternativer Frühindikator
Augurzky, Boris; Fischer, Martin; Schmidt, Christoph M. - 2021
Die 7-Tage-Inzidenz ist als Entscheidungsgrundlage für ein adäquates Management der Corona-Pandemie zunehmend ungeeignet. Eine hohe Impfquote unter den vulnerablen, älteren Bevölkerungsgruppen und ein erhöhtes Infektionsgeschehen unter den Jüngeren hat die Bedeutung der Inzidenzwerte für...
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Characterization of the Chilean financial cycle, early warning indicators and implications for macro-prudential policies
Martínez, Juan Francisco; Oda, Daniel - In: Latin American journal of central banking : LAJCB 2 (2021) 1, pp. 1-20
From the perspective of an emerging country - Chile - we analyze the recommendations of the Basel Committee of Banking Supervision (BCBS) regarding the design and implementation of indicators to guide countercyclical capital buffer (CCyB) policy decisions. We analyze the sensitivity of the...
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Asset encumbrance in euro area banks : analysing trends, drivers and prediction properties for individual bank crises
Berthonnaud, Pierre; Cesati, Enrico; Drudi, Maria Ludovica - 2021
Asset encumbrance is a central concept in the context of banks’ liquidity crises, as it is associated with their capacity to obtain secured funding. This occasional paper summarises the work carried out by the task force on asset encumbrance, bringing together analyses by the ECB and those...
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Role of early warning systems in predicting the stock price crisis : what we learnt from grasshopper and ants fable
Habibi, Reza - In: Financial studies 25 (2021) 2, pp. 6-20
Early warning systems are too important tools in predicting the crisis in financial institutions say banks and stock markets. A consequence of crashes in a specified stock or stock market is financial crisis. This paper considers designing an early warningsystem based on random walk theory and...
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