This paper describes the Quarterly Macro Forecasting Framework (QMFF), which is a novel approach to macroeconomic policy analysis and forecasting. At the core of this framework is a Quarterly Projection Model, with main behavioral equations quantified as deviations of real variables from their...

This paper develops a nowcasting model to produce timely estimates of quarterly GDP growth for Kenya. Nowcasting combines official monthly indicators with digital transaction data. Exploiting strong comovement of macroeconomic time series, a few latent factors summarize aggregate dynamics and...

The paper describes QMPM, the Quarterly Projection Model for the Bank of Algeria that underpins the Bank’s Forecasting and Policy Analysis System. The model is designed to capture the key features of the economy, including the importance of the hydrocarbon sector, sizable fiscal policy...

Die deutsche Wirtschaft hatte sich zum Ende vergangenen Jahres hin stabilisiert; viele Konjunkturindikatoren entwickelten sich positiv. Die Wachstumschancen für 2026 und 2027 wurden aufgrund der von der Koalitionsregierung auf den Weg gebrachten fiskalpolitischen Ausgabenprogramme und...

This study examines how effectively common factors, extracted using both the partial least squares method and principal component analysis from the business tendency survey and the banking loan tendency survey, can predict Turkiye's economic growth. The findings indicate that integrating this...

Austria's economy is recovering over the projection period from a recession that, according to the revised National Accounts, proved comparably severe to Germany's. The rebound is driven by private consumption, while foreign trade in goods continues to contract for the time being. Residential...

We provide a parsimonious setup for forecasting U.S. GDP growth and the unemployment rate based on a few fundamental drivers. This setup yields forecasts that are reasonably accurate compared with private-sector and Federal Reserve forecasts over the 1984-2019 and post-COVID-19 pandemic periods....

In behavioral economics, sentiments influence decision-making processes, with positive sentiments tending to underestimate risks and negative sentiments overestimate them. At the individual level, these sentiments shape economic behavior in ways that collectively influence broader economic...

In the ECB's Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the fourth quarter of 2025, expectations for headline HICP inflation were revised slightly upwards for 2025 but remained unchanged for 2026, 2027 and the longer term. Expectations for core inflation expectations, as measured by the HICP...

In the ECB's Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the fourth quarter of 2025, expectations for headline HICP inflation were revised slightly upwards for 2025 but remained unchanged for 2026, 2027 and the longer term. Expectations for core inflation expectations, as measured by the HICP...

In the ECB's Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the third quarter of 2025,1 expectations for headline HICP inflation were revised downwards for 2025 and 2026 but remained unchanged for 2027 and the longer term. At the same time, core inflation expectations, as measured by the HICP...

Die deutsche Wirtschaft wartet auf die Konjunkturwende. Wie schon insgesamt im ersten Halbjahr 2025 stagnierte das reale Bruttoinlandsprodukt auch im 3. Quartal. Ein schwieriges internationales Umfeld und eine bislang nur zaghafte Umsetzung von Reformen durch die neue Regierung - überlagert von...

Indonesia’s economy continues to demonstrate resilience amid heightened global uncertainty. Real GDP growth held at 5.0 percent year-on-year over the first three quarters of 2025, supported by robust investment and a notable, albeit temporary, contribution from net exports, which benefited...

The German economy is slowly emerging from its trough. After a bumpy start to the year, which was marked by tariff-related special effects, growth in 2025 remains subdued at 0.2 percent. However, the economy is gradually picking up speed from the current third quarter onwards. Over the next two...

Vector autoregressions (VARs) are popular for forecasting, but ill-suited to handle occasionally binding constraints, like the effective lower bound on nominal interest rates. We examine reduced-form "shadow rate VARs" that model interest rates as censored observations of a latent shadow rate...

The global economy has so far proved robust in the face of unprecedented economic uncertainty. Recently, a number of countries, including the EU, have concluded trade agreements with the United States. These agreements increase planning security by providing a framework for international trade....

This study examines whether the integration of Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) factors enhances the accuracy of financial forecasts. Using a dataset of 2548 publicly listed companies from 98 countries, we evaluate a range of machine learning models-from ARIMA to XGBoost-by comparing...

Trade tariffs and related uncertainty contributed to strong fluctuations in economic activity during the first half of 2025, with frontloading of activity, especially in Ireland. The unwinding of these factors in the second half of the year is expected to entail further volatility, blurring...

This paper introduces the European Central Bank's Multi Country model (ECB-MC), a coherent macroeconomic framework designed to support economic forecasting and policy analysis within the Eurosystem. The ECB-MC captures the economic dynamics of the five major economies in the euro area - Germany,...

Trade tariffs and related uncertainty contributed to strong fluctuations in economic activity during the first half of 2025, with frontloading of activity, especially in Ireland. The unwinding of these factors in the second half of the year is expected to entail further volatility, blurring...

We propose a methodology for constructing confidence intervals for macroeconomic forecasts that directly incorporate quantitative measures of uncertainty – such as survey-based indicators, stock market volatility, and policy uncertainty. By allowing the width of confidence intervals to vary...

This paper describes a Growth-at-Risk (GaR) model of the Bundesbank for Germany. This model takes the form of a quantile regression that quantifies downside risk to German GDP growth associated with financial developments. A systematic comparison of diverse model specifications is performed to...