Conventional wisdom suggests that information transparency about prices lowers prices and markups by intensifying seller competition. However, in markets with costly buyer entry, price transparency also draws in more buyers, increasing demand-side competition and putting upward pressure on...

We study the impact of cyclical systemic risks on banks' profitability in the euro area within a panel quantile regression model, with the ultimate goal to inform the calibration of the Countercyclical Capital buffer (CCyB). Compared to previous studies, we augment our model to control for...

This report provides a comprehensive overview of the models and tools used for macroeconomic projections within the European System of Central Banks (ESCB). These include semi-structural models, dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models, time series models and specialised satellite...

This paper investigates the implications of a potential loss of credibility in the central bank's ability to bring inflation back to target in the medium-term ("de-anchoring"). We propose a monetary policy framework in which the central bank accounts for de-anchoring risks using a...

We characterize optimal monetary policy under state-dependent pricing. The framework gives rise to nonlinear inflation dynamics: The flexibility of the price level increases after large shocks due to an endogenous rise in the frequency of price changes. In response to large cost-push shocks,...

Exporters frequently change their set of destination markets. This paper proposes a new approach to identifying the underlying drivers of changes in exporters' market decisions over time. The approach exploits information on the price and quantity of the changes in firms' continuing markets, to...

This study addresses a significant gap in the literature by comparing the effectiveness of traditional statistical methods with artificial intelligence (AI) techniques in predicting bankruptcy among small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Traditional bankruptcy prediction models often fail to...

The EBA-lite methodology is a key input in external sector assessments for over three-quarters of IMF member countries, representing a broad set of emerging and low-income economies. The EBA-lite methodology is refined periodically, and this paper provides a comprehensive discussion of the...

In this paper, I develop a population-based Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm known as parallel tempering to estimate dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. Parallel tempering approximates the posterior distribution of interest using a family of Markov chains with tempered...

In this paper we show that both climate models and economic models studying the effects of climate change are characterized by high uncertainty. Hence, far reaching policy implications such as the net zero goal lack a definite scientific foundation. Neverthelss, it cannot be excluded that the...

This paper takes stock of the ECB's macroeconometric modelling strategy by focusing on the models and applications used in the Forecasting and Policy Modelling Division. We focus on the guiding principles underpinning the current portfolio of the main macroeconomic models and illustrate how they...

Dem Zusammenhang zwischen wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Modellen und modelliertem Wirtschaftsleben kommt eine Schlüsselbedeutung bei der Bewältigung gesellschaftlicher Krisen zu. Wenn ökonomische Modellwelten mit anderen Welten interagieren, spricht man von "Performativität". Carsten Damm...

Tourism plays an important role in the economies of countries, which is evidenced by macroeconomic studies. However, analyses highlighted the need to do research on tourist expenditure and to identify factors at the microeconomic level. The article presents an overview of the extensively...

Um die Treibhausgasneutralität bis 2045 zu erreichen, wird unter anderem erforderlich sein, dass die Industrie klimaneutrale Produktionsweisen entwickelt und umsetzt. Damit einher gehen gesellschaftliche Aushandlungsprozesse darüber, welche neuen Technologien eingesetzt werden und welche...

This paper discusses GTAP-L, an extension of the GTAP model that allows for the analysis of U.S. simulated unemployment effects in trade scenarios. The market clearing condition in the standard GTAP model which equates vacancies to separations was replaced with a matching function. In a matching...

This electronic monograph (E-Monograph) has seven chapter with different models for policy modelling. The first chapter presents the introduction that we explain each chapter. Second chapter is interested to evaluate how artificial intelligence (AI) can change the way to do it policy modeling....

We provide an economic model of a decentralized exchange (DEX) that allows investors to concentrate liquidity within exogenously specified price intervals (e.g., Uniswap V3). We demonstrate that providing liquidity for a risky vs. risk-free asset pair within any price interval is analogous to...

According to conventional wisdom, terms of trade shocks represent a major source of business cycles in emerging and poor countries. This view is largely based on the analysis of calibrated business-cycle models. We argue that the view that emerges from empirical SVAR models is strikingly...

Uninterrupted and affordable access to electricity in the national territory is essential for the realization of daily life activities. National Energy Security can be understood as the capacity of the State to guarantee sufficient uninterrupted energy availability in a sustainable and...

This paper outlines a strategic plan for the development of the fourth generation of Bank of Canada projection and policy analysis models. The plan features a new Canadian workhorse macroeconomic model as well as a suite of alternative models to better support a risk management approach to...