We propose a novel empirical structural inflation model that captures non-linear shock transmission using a Bayesian machine learning framework that combines VARs with non-linear structural factor models. Unlike traditional linear models, our approach allows for non-linear effects at all impulse...

This article focuses on the synthesis of conditional dependence structure of recursive Bayesian estimation of dynamic state space models with time-varying parameters using a newly modified recursive Bayesian algorithm. The results of empirical applications to climate data from Nigeria reveals...

The paper presents an empirical study designed to test a small area estimation method. The aim of the study is to apply a robust version of the Fay-Herriot model to the estimation of average wages in the small business sector. Unlike the classical Fay-Herriot model, its robust version makes it...

Crude oil prices have been on a run-up spree in recent years. Their dynamics were characterized by high volatility, high intensity jumps, and strong upward drift, indicating that oil markets were constantly out-of-equilibrium. An explanation of the oil price process in terms of the underlying...

Pakistan and Afghanistan are partners in the War against Terrorism that has tremendous repercussions on their economies. Bilateral relations have been difficult, as Afghanistan blames Pakistan of interfering in their internal affairs, while the war in Afghanistan has spilled over to Pakistan....

This article uses graph theory to provide novel evidence regarding market integration, a necessary condition for systemic risk to appear. Relying on daily futures returns covering a 12-year period, we examine cross- and inter-market linkages, both within the commodity complex and between...

We construct comprehensive and comparable indices on the most relevant components of economic infrastructure. An unobserved components model is employed to cover the largest possible number of developing and developed countries over the period 1990-2010. We map major findings from the new...

This article uses graph theory to provide novel evidence regarding market integration, a favorable condition for systemic risk to appear in. Relying on daily futures returns covering a 12-year period, we examine cross- and inter-market linkages, both within the commodity complex and between...