Geopolitics is an overarching characteristic of much of this outlook for the key themes in the global energy economy in 2025. The start of Donald Trump’s second term in the White House will herald new pressures to multiple layers of the global economy, from trade to labour, monetary policy to...

Gasspeicher sind ein zentraler Baustein für eine sichere Energieversorgung und damit für eine funktionierende Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft. Derzeit bietet der Markt jedoch kaum Anreize, die Gasspeicher zu nutzen oder in deren Erhalt zu investieren. Im Gegenteil: Seit November letzten Jahres...

This research models and examines multiple decarbonisation pathways for Europe to 2050, evaluating trade-offs between emissions reductions, costs, and implications for gas demand. Scenarios that front-load decarbonisation to 2040 show prohibitively high marginal abatement costs, while a more...

Reducing methane emissions from the oil and gas sector is one of the easiest and lowest cost measures which can have a significant impact on global warming prior to 2050. Since 2022, pledges and initiatives by governments and companies have resulted in progress in relation to awareness,...

Despite the formal absence of sanctions, gas trade between Russia and the EU has effectively collapsed over the past three and a half years. This has been the outcome of several factors: the EU strategy of reducing dependence on Russian gas, Russia's own supply cuts, physical damage to the...

Gasspeicher sind ein zentraler Baustein für eine sichere Energieversorgung und damit für eine funktionierende Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft. Derzeit bietet der Markt jedoch kaum Anreize, die Gasspeicher zu nutzen oder in deren Erhalt zu investieren. Im Gegenteil: Seit November letzten Jahres...

This study evaluates the risk factors during ship-to-ship liquefied natural gas bunkering in South Korea using the consistent fuzzy preference relations method. The study showed that the detailed factor "The operator's inability to recognize the operational condition, system status, or measuring...

This paper compares the renowned GARCH model with a novel one, the Generalized Autoregressive Score (GAS) model in terms of forecasting performance. Considering the gap in the literature, this study focuses on the Turkish stock and FX markets. The analysis covers 25 years (1999-2023), of which...

This Paper analyses the results of the trading data in 2024 for the European traded gas hubs, to give a fuller picture of the recovery after the very turbulent period from 2020 to 2022, where the various hubs now stand and, more importantly, to establish whether the Dutch TTF can now credibly be...

Gasspeicher sind ein zentraler Baustein für eine sichere Energieversorgung und damit für eine funktionierende Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft. Derzeit bietet der Markt jedoch kaum Anreize, die Gasspeicher zu nutzen oder in deren Erhalt zu investieren. Im Gegenteil: Seit November 2024 beobachten...

We identify supply and demand shocks to the real price of natural gas in the Euro Area and the United States. Demand shocks are identified using exogenous temperature variations, while supply shocks are identified through a high-frequency strategy based on an extensive collection of...

Gasspeicher sind ein zentraler Baustein für eine sichere Energieversorgung und damit für eine funktionierende Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft. Derzeit bietet der Markt jedoch kaum Anreize, die Gasspeicher zu nutzen oder in deren Erhalt zu investieren. Im Gegenteil: Seit November 2024 beobachten...

The Tracker report for 2024 comes as a global sense of urgency is taking hold. At the end of last year, the 2023 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP28) again underscored the importance of transitioning away from unabated oil and gas. At the same time, oil and gas will continue to play...

In this paper, we suggest that Global Production Network (GPN) scholars have yet to deal more substantively with how nation-states, often in alliance with firm actors, actively work to create markets for resources in global production networks. We argue in this paper that GPN scholars should be...

The dependency on imported essential production inputs poses a threat of abrupt price hikes and shortages, potentially triggered by political events. The energy crisis resulting from the Russian war of aggression is an example. This paper investigates whether governments should bolster...

European Union legislation obliges natural gas transmission system operators to publish key transport indicators on a transparency platform operated by the European Network of Gas Transmission System Operators for Gas (ENTSOG). Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE) maintains similar transparency...

This paper aims to assess the role of expectations as a determinant of the real price of natural gas. To measure expectations-driven speculative demand three approaches are followed, which are based respectively on using natural gas inventories consistently with the theory of storage (Kilian and...

The financial losses recorded by Gazprom in 2023 driven by collapsing gas export revenue point to a wider transition in the role of the company, which has been at the heart of Russia’s energy economy since the Soviet period. In the pre-crisis period, Gazprom was able to subsidize gas supply to...

This paper develops a Bayesian VAR model to identify three structural shocks driving the European gas market: demand, supply and inventory shocks. We document how gas price fluctuations have a heterogeneous pass-through to euro area prices depending on the underlying shock driving them. The...

The spread of natural gas in the main international natural gas markets shows characteristics of violent fluctuation, frequent mutation, and periodic evolution, which pose a great challenge to the safety and sustainable development of natural gas in China. First, this paper used the complete...

The market for internationally traded gas has now globalized, assisted by the advent of US LNG from the Lower-48. The volume of flexible LNG has increased sharply since 2016 and was instrumental in the diversion of LNG cargoes to Europe, following the loss of Russian pipeline gas in 2022. In a...

Regulatory reforms by the European Commission have facilitated the integration of the European gas market, increasing interdependence in prices and associated risks across gas hubs. Recent external shocks, including the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, have disrupted market...

The U.S. natural gas market is crucial for domestic energy and increasingly important in global trade. Structural analyses of this market often adapt oil market models but overlook key features, such as external trade flows, potentially limiting their ability to fully capture its dynamics. This...

This paper develops a new class of multivariate models for large-dimensional time-varying covariance matrices, called Cholesky generalized autoregressive score (GAS) models, which are based on the Cholesky decomposition of the covariance matrix and assume that the parameters are score-driven....

Large parts of the existing natural gas distribution networks must be decommissioned due to the decarbonization of the heat supply. However, there are neither regulatory nor economic incentives for the gas network operators to do so and delaying the decommissioning could be expensive for the...

The current geopolitical landscape, exemplified by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, has heightened concerns about energy security. This study delves into the nexus of energy security and natural gas utilization in the Czech Republic, offering a thorough analysis amid these turbulent times....

This study explores the structural shifts in Europe’s energy landscape following the loss of over one-third of its natural gas supplies due to the conflict in Ukraine, effectively severing the traditional natural gas trade “bridge” between Russia and Europe. Amidst Europe’s deep...

On 11 April 2024 the European Parliament adopted the Renewable and Natural Gases and Hydrogen (RNGH) Directive and the RNGH Regulation – otherwise known as the Decarbonised Gas and Hydrogen Package – and published both documents on 12 April 2024. Once approved by the Council and published in...

As a result of the Russian attack on Ukraine, natural gas prices skyrocketed in 2022 and Germany in particular felt the impact of its strong dependency on Russia. Prices have since relaxed, the European natural gas industry has overcome the uncertainty due to the energy crisis in 2022, and the...

We propose a structural vector-autoregressive model for the German natural gas market to investigate the impact of the 2022 Russian supply stop on the German economy. We combine conventional and narrative sign restrictions to leverage information about supply cuts for identification and find...

We use a structural VAR model to study the German natural gas market and investigate the impact of the 2022 Russian supply stop on the German economy. Combining conventional and narrative sign restrictions, we find that gas supply and demand shocks have large and persistent price effects, while...

Natural gas is a major fuel in Peru, accounting for nearly 45 % of all energy sources used to generate electricity. This research aims to analyze the dynamic association between economic growth and natural gas consumption (NGC), considering Peru's trade openness (Tr) from 1965 to 2022. The...

The reduction of the EU's pipeline gas imports from Russia because of the Russian war against Ukraine has had severe economy-wide implications for the bloc. Using a multisector integrated assessment model (GCAM), we find that a potential complete cut-off of Russian pipeline gas exports to the EU...

The oil and gas trade is one of the main ways to promote regional economic development by improving the effectiveness of resource allocation. While regional energy cooperation could lead to growth in the energy trade, blind investment will reduce effective yields. Kazakhstan and China maintain a...

Middle East and North Africa (MENA) gas exporters are facing long-term market and regulatory challenges in Europe. The near three-year continuous decline in Europe’s gas demand since the beginning of the Ukraine crisis is a key challenge for these exporters who are concerned about whether this...