This paper introduces Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimation for Long Memory Stock Transaction Data of unknown underlying distribution. The moments with conditional heteroscedasticity have been discussed. In a Monte Carlo experiment, it was found that the QML estimator performs as well as CLS and...

This paper maps out the trade relationship in goods between the two largest trading blocs in the global economy - the EU and US. We use detailed product category information to provide an in-depth description of current trade flows between the two markets, with a particular focus on how Irish-US...

Despite its importance for development, long-term finance is particularly scarce in countries with lower income levels. This not only results in unrealised growth and employment creation at the national level and at the level of individual firms, but also undermines a broader shift towards...

The paper reexamines the empirical relationship between external indebtedness and the interest premium on government bonds. We use a broad sample of countries between 1980-2017 that includes advanced, emerging and less-developed economies. We show that the relationship is strongly...

I develop a computational method for solving and estimating heterogeneous agent macro models with aggregate shocks. The main challenge is that the aggregate state vector contains the distribution of agents, which is typically infinite‐dimensional. I approximate the distribution with a flexible...

This paper studies dynamic discrete choices by relaxing the assumption of rational expectations. That is, agents' subjective expectations about the state transition are unknown and allowed to differ from their objectively estimable counterparts. We show that agents' subjective expectations and...

We estimate a Heterogeneous-Agent New Keynesian model with sticky household expectations that matches existing microeconomic evidence on marginal propensities to consume and macroeconomic evidence on the impulse response to a monetary policy shock. Our estimated model uncovers a central role for...

Many studies estimate the impact of exposure to some quasi-experimental policy or event using a panel event study design. These models, as a generalized extension of 'difference-in-differences' or two-way fixed effect models, allow for dynamic lags and leads to the event of interest to be...

Since the Great Recession, the main evolution in monetary policy has been its attempts to affect the medium and the long-term interest rates with instruments other than the policy rate. Consequently, measuring the stance of monetary policy by a single interest rate becomes problematic. This...

The superstar firms model provides a compelling explanation for two simultaneously occurring phenomena: the rise of concentration in industries and the fall of labor shares. Our empirical analysis confirms two of the underlying assumptions of the model: the market share increases and the labor...

We consider a general class of observation-driven models with exogenous regressors for double bounded data that are based on the beta distribution. We obtain a stationary and ergodic beta observation-driven process subject to a contraction condition on the stochastic dynamic model equation. We...

This paper describes a moments estimator for a standard state-space model with coefficients generated by a random walk. A penalized least squares estimation is linked to the GLS (Aitken) estimates of the corresponding linear model with time-invariant parameters. The VC estimates are moments...

I study potentials and gaps, permanent and transitory fluctuations in macroeconomic variables using the Smets and Wouter (2007) model. Model-based gaps display low frequency variations; possess more than business cycle fluctuations; have similar frequency representation as potentials, and are...

A large body of literature estimates the relative wage impacts of immigration on low- and high-skill natives, but it is unclear how these effects map onto changes of the wage distribution. I document the movement of foreign-born workers in the U.S. wage distribution, showing that, since 1980,...

This study focuses on estimating the returns to education in non-farm self-employed businesses in the Indian context, using nationwide individual- and household-level data provided by the India Human Development Survey for the year 2011/12. Given that different studies have used different types...

Longitudinal studies have documented improvements in parents' life satisfaction due to childbearing, followed by postpartum adaptation back to baseline. However, the details underlying this process remain largely unexplored. Based on past literature, set-point theory, and results from an...

We estimate the impact of a negative trade shock on labour market outcomes and educational choices of workers. We exploit the Canadian lumber exports crisis beginning in 2007 in a quasiexperimental design. We find that the employment probability of forestry industry workers decreased by 4.1...

How much does inequality matter for the business cycle and vice versa? Using a Bayesian likelihood approach, we estimate a heterogeneous-agent New-Keynesian (HANK) model with incomplete markets and portfolio choice between liquid and illiquid assets. The model enlarges the set of shocks and...

Experiences during the Great Recession support the view that the UK labor market is relatively flexible. Unemployment rose less and recovered faster than in most other European economies. However, this success has been accompanied by a stagnation of productivity and wages; an open question is...

The added worker effect (AWE) measures the entry of individuals into the labor force due to their partners' job loss. We propose a new method to calculate the AWE, which allows us to estimate its effect on any labor market outcome. We show that the AWE reduces the fraction of households with two...

This article develops a Bayesian approach for estimating panel quantile regression with binary outcomes in the presence of correlated random effects. We construct a working likelihood using an asymmetric Laplace (AL) error distribution and combine it with suitable prior distributions to obtain...

Paid parental leave schemes have been shown to increase women's employment rates but decrease their wages in case of extended leave durations. In view of these potential trade-offs, many countries are discussing the optimal design of parental leave policies. We analyze the impact of a major...

Foreign direct investment (FDI) is generally considered a driving factor to economic growth. Nevertheless, empirical evidence is rather mixed, reporting a positive, neutral, or even negative relationship of FDI with growth. Our investigation concentrates on the impact of FDI inflows on growth...

Previous studies used general government data to examine whether national governments' electoral motives and ideology influenced budget composition in OECD countries. General government data includes, however, the state and local level. Using new data for general and central government over the...

This paper evaluates the effect of foreign takeover on wages of workers in German establishments, using rich linked employer-employee data from 2003 to 2014. To identify a causal effect of foreign takeover, we combine propensityscore matching with a difference-in-difference estimator. We find...

This paper examines how employee earnings at small firms respond to a cash flow shock in the form of a government R&D grant. We use ranking data on applicant firms, which we link to IRS W2 earnings and other U.S. Census Bureau datasets. In a regression discontinuity design, we find that the...

In this paper, we test for the existence of a common component in agricultural land auctions in eastern Germany during the price boom 2007-2018 and discuss respective policy implications. Using a large, detailed dataset of auctions, we can rely on professional appraisals of the auctioned good...

Matching-type estimators using the propensity score are the major workhorse in active labour market policy evaluation. This work investigates if machine learning algorithms for estimating the propensity score lead to more credible estimation of average treatment effects on the treated using a...

Equivalence scales are often used to adjust household income for differences in characteristics that affect needs. For example, a family of two is assumed to need more income than a single person, but not double due to economies of scale in consumption. However, in comparing economic well-being...

We estimate Okun's law, the negative relationship between output and the unemployment rate, at the sector level for the US, the UK, Japan, and Switzerland to test several hypotheses that may explain why the aggregate Okun's coeffcients are different across countries. Specifically, we show that...

For governments who want to improve their economies via fiscal, monetary, trade or exchange rate policies, the tradeoff between the inflation rate and the unemployment rate is extremely important. This tradeoff has become known as the Phillips curve. Among economists there is no consensus on how...

There is a long tradition in literature that banks can play a special role in the propagation of economic fluctuations. Theory suggests many channels through which financial system affects, and is affected by, economic growth. One of the most important empirical studies on this topic shows a...

We construct risks around consensus forecasts of real GDP growth, unemployment, and inflation. We find that risks are time-varying, asymmetric, and partly predictable. Tight financial conditions forecast downside growth risk, upside unemployment risk, and increased uncertainty around the...

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the impact of trade openness and the factors based on the gravity model on the bilateral trade flows between Thailand and Japan. The factors consist of GDP, distance, trade openness, and exchange rate. Bilateral trade is composed of two flows: Thailand’s...

This paper studies the role of the exchange rate regime for trade of new products. It first provides VAR evidence that a rise in external productivity shifts trade away from new products and more so in fixed regimes. Then, it presents a model with firm dynamics in line with this evidence. We...

A limited number of studies have investigated the impacts of education on non-cognitive skills, yet they offer mixed results. A few studies suggest no impact, but others report positive impacts of education on non-cognitive skills. In this paper, we apply the elimination of Social Security...

This paper examines the impact of trade liberalization on firms' product and labor market power. We estimate the prevalence and intensity of firm-level price-cost markups and either wage markups or wage markdowns. We take the dependence between these model-consistent measures of product and...

Per capita GDP has limited use as a well-being indicator because it does not capture many dimensions that imply a "good life", such as health and equality of opportunity. However, per capita GDP has the virtues of easy interpretation and can be calculated with manageable data requirements....

Financial liberalization is theoretically known to be an important driver of economic growth; the emergence of new industries, the availability of money in the circulation and how it affects prices, extent of international trade in the countries among others are necessities that any economy...