This study applied supervised machine learning algorithms to macro-fiscal panel data from 20 EU member states (2000-2024) to model and predict fiscal stress episodes in the Eurozone. Conventional frameworks for assessing public debt sustainability often rely on static thresholds and linear...

This paper explores the relationship between working capital management (WCM) strategies and business performance during the COVID-19 crisis. Data from 1,067 non-financial European firms from 33 countries distributed across 6 economic sectors in the period from 2015 to 2021, feed Ordinary Least...

This article evaluates the asymmetric impact of exchange rate volatility on the exports of nine ECOWAS countries to the Eurozone. By comparing Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and Nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) models, the study concludes that the effect of volatility on ECOWAS-Eurozone exports...

This study investigates the impact of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) on monetary policy flexibility, the effective lower bound (ELB), and negative interest rate policies (NIRPs), specifically in the case of the digital euro (DE). Through a combination of theoretical modeling and...

Two years after the COVID-19 pandemic, the Greek economy seems to have overcome the turmoil of the pandemic crisis as well as that of the following energy crisis. Nevertheless, it would be wrong to assume that the Greek economy has returned to a sound state, since this was not really the case...

The number of digital currencies has increased significantly in recent years. So-called central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), created by central banks, are at the forefront of this development. Combining the advantages of an electronic means of payment - namely the speed and efficiency of...

The 1992 Maastricht Treaty, laid the foundations for the current European Union with its single market in goods, services, capital and labour and established the framework for the creation of the single currency. We study countries that differ in the extent to which they share a common currency...

The paper finds that the post-pandemic inflation surge and subsequent decline from 2021 to 2024 had no significant impact on public support for the Euro for the EA-19 and for most individual member states of the EA-19. From 2021 to 2024, net public support for the euro remained remarkably stable...

This paper applies the Growth-at-Risk (GaR) framework to assess downside risks to euro area GDP growth, and it examines its usefulness for stress testing. Supervisory stress-test scenarios are often criticized for being either too mild or implausibly severe, raising questions about calibration....

Economic theory has recently begun to consider the economic impact of narratives. Narrative economics can also be extended to the analysis of the economic-political effect of narratives in the context of the European core-periphery divide, which intensified after the European sovereign-debt...

This paper studies the emergence of sovereign bond yield spreads in the Eurozone prior to the financial crisis. While spreads were close to zero in European government debt markets until the mid-2000s, they have persistently widened since then in many member states. We employ a...

Die EZB und die Europäische Kommission treiben die Einführung eines digitalen Euros offensiv voran. Obwohl viele Details zur technischen Ausgestaltung und Funktionalität noch offen sind, wird damit geworben, dass eine digitale Gemeinschaftswährung mit einer Reihe von Vorteilen für Europa...

This report offers a strategic view on the economic and inflation environment in the euro area as part of the monetary policy strategy assessment 2025. It reassesses the factors shaping the inflation and economic environment in light of the recent inflation experience, analyses changes in...

Following the Global Financial Crisis of 2007-8, Ireland, Slovenia, and Spain set up public Asset Management Companies (AMCs), purchasing delinquent loans equal to 44%, 16%, and 10% of GDP, respectively. Though deemed successful, it's unclear if this was de facto traditional capital and...

This study investigates how Chinese ownership in European ports affects trade flows between China and Eurozone countries, set against the backdrop of recent global economic disruptions that have emphasized the crucial role of maritime trade and port efficiency. An augmented gravity model was...

This study reviews new perceptions of an imminent decline of the international role of the US dollar and implications for the euro. It considers developments in international reserves, invoicing, debt and payment systems. Strengths and weaknesses of the US and euro area economies are discussed...

The euro area experienced an unprecedented surge of inflation in 2021 and 2022 followed by a decline in 2023 and 2024. The ECB raised policy rates too late. Simple rules would have prescribed an earlier response. The policy easing since summer 2024, however, is quite in line with such rules....

The article reviews the latest version of the proposal for a new Stability and Growth Pact of the European Union, as accepted by the European Parliament in April 2024. After summarising the main changes, the macroeconomic evaluation attempts to gauge whether the main goal of the Pact –...

The reform of the European fiscal rules came into force on 30 April 2024. The new rules, like the former ones, impose a depressive bias on domestic fiscal policies, leaving Member States' no fiscal room for manoeuvre. At the same time, the European Pillar of Social Rights sets ambitious targets...

What has led to the growing disillusionment with the European project? What have we learned from the process of Europeanisation, and can these lessons guide us in the present? To answer these questions, the article offers a long-term view of the diverging trajectories of Central and Peripheral...

This paper examines the rise of non-bank financial intermediaries (NBFIs) and its implications for financial stability and monetary policy transmission in the Euro Area and the United States. While the U.S. financial system has long been market-based, the Euro Area has experienced a striking...

This study focusses on the transmission of carbon pricing mechanisms in shaping trade dynamics between the Eurozone and key partners: the USA and China. Using Bayesian variable selection methods and a Time-Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions (TV-SVAR) model, the research identifies the key...

Public debt has increased steadily over the years, leaving many countries at risk of debt distress and even pushing some to default. This paper analyses the impact of sovereign default on post-default debtto-GDP ratios in 144 countries from 1980 to 2019. Applying the entropy balancing method, we...

In the ECB's Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the fourth quarter of 2025, expectations for headline HICP inflation were revised slightly upwards for 2025 but remained unchanged for 2026, 2027 and the longer term. Expectations for core inflation expectations, as measured by the HICP...

In the ECB's Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the fourth quarter of 2025, expectations for headline HICP inflation were revised slightly upwards for 2025 but remained unchanged for 2026, 2027 and the longer term. Expectations for core inflation expectations, as measured by the HICP...

The Eurosystem's digital euro project aims to adapt central bank money to the digital age, addressing the current challenges of the European payments ecosystem. As payment habits evolve, the use of cash declines and digital transactions become the norm, the need for a public digital means of...

In the ECB's Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the third quarter of 2025,1 expectations for headline HICP inflation were revised downwards for 2025 and 2026 but remained unchanged for 2027 and the longer term. At the same time, core inflation expectations, as measured by the HICP...