The current economic crisis has witnessed a strong deceleration in the growth of international trade. This has been even greater in the cases of the European Union and the eurozone, where the rates of export growth have even reached negative figures. In this paper, the authors examine to which...

Die deutsche Wirtschaft kühlt sich seit Anfang letzten Jahres spürbar ab. Allerdings ist die konjunkturelle Entwicklung gespalten. Das exportorientierte Verarbeitende Gewerbe, in dem etwa ein Viertel der Wertschöpfung erwirtschaftet wird, steckt in einer Rezession. Wirtschaftspolitiken, die...

Der deutschen Wirtschaft droht eine Rezession. In diesem Jahr dürfte das Wirtschaftswachstum mit 0,5% im Vergleich zum Vorjahr deutlich niedriger ausfallen als in den zurückliegenden Jahren. Im kommenden Jahr wird sich die Konjunktur wohl allmählich wieder normalisieren und der Anstieg der...

In recent years, the role attached to the autonomous components of aggregate demand has attracted rising attention, as testified by the development of the Sraffian Supermulti plier model (SSM) and the attempts to include autonomous demand in the Neo-Kaleckian model. This paper reviews and...

In der Dezember-Umfrage des Ökonomenpanels von ifo und FAZ wurden Professoren für Volkswirtschaftslehre an deutschen Universitäten nach ihrer Meinung bezüglich verschiedener Reformvorschläge für die Eurozone sowie insbesondere zur Schaffung einer gemeinsamen europäischen...

We examine the relationship between private bank deposits and macro/fiscal risk in the euro area. We test three hypotheses: First, private bank deposits relative to Germany are determined by macro/fiscal risk factors. Second, this relationship is time-varying. Third, time-variation is driven by...

Macroeconomic adjustment in the euro area periphery was more recessionary than pre-crisis imbalances would have warranted. To make this claim, this paper uses a Propensity Score Matching Model to produce counterfactuals for the Eurozone crisis countries (Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Cyprus, Spain)...

This paper investigates the relationship between public and private wages in the five largest euro area countries for the period 1997-2017. The analysis shows that there exists a positive and significant response of private wages to a public wage shock. This effect is found to be temporary and...

Focussing on repo specialness premia, using ISIN-specific transaction-by-transaction data of one-day maturity repos, we document a gradual shift from cash- to securities-driven transactions in euro area repo markets over the period 2010-2018. Compared to earlier studies focussing only on...

This paper documents, for the first time in a systematic manner, the link between labor cost and price inflation in the euro area. Using country and sector quarterly data over the period 1985Q1-2018Q1 we find a strong link between labor cost and price inflation in the four major economies of the...

Using a novel regulatory dataset of fully identified derivatives transactions, this paper provides the first comprehensive analysis of the structure of the euro area interest rate swap (IRS) market after the start of the mandatory clearing obligation. Our dataset contains 1.7 million bilateral...

This paper provides an overview of supply and demand factors influencing the availability of euro-denominated debt instruments that qualify as high-quality liquid assets (HQLA) in the euro area. The paper estimates the supply of HQLA issued by the public and private sectors as well as the...

This paper examines the evolution of public support for the euro since its introduction as a virtual currency in 1999 , using a unique set of data not available for any other currency. We focus on the role of economic factors in determining the popularity o f the euro. We find that a majority of...

No country in Europe is safe from a recession. A stabilization fund which member states pay into while the economy is strong and from which they receive grants during downturns can improve welfare in individual euro area countries. The fund should be structured in such a way that permanent...

Twenty years after the introduction of the euro, this Weekly Report uses an empirical analysis to assess the performance of monetary policy in the EMU founding states. It is often claimed that the monetary policy of the European Central Bank (ECB) cannot outperform its national predecessors, as...

As the euro area has a predominantly bank-based financial system, changes in the composition and strength of banks’ balance sheets can have very sizeable implications for the transmission of monetary policy. This paper provides an overview of developments in banks’ balance sheets,...

We study the information flow from the ECB on policy dates since its inception, using tick data. We show that three factors capture about all of the variation in the yield curve but that these are different factors with different variance shares in the window that contains the policy decision...

Negative monetary policy rates are associated with a particular friction because the remuneration of retail deposits tends to be floored at zero. We investigate whether this friction affects banks’ reactions when the policy rate is lowered to negative levels, compared to a standard rate cut in...

We analyse the cross-border propagation of prudential regulation in the euro area. Using the Prudential Instruments Database (Cerutti et al., 2017b) and a unique confidential database on balance sheets items of euro-area financial institutions we estimate panel models for 248 banks from 16...

We examine the relationship between private bank deposits and macro/fiscal risk in the euro area. We test three hypotheses: First, private bank deposits relative to Germany are determined by macro/fiscal risk factors. Second, this relationship is time-varying. Third, time-variation is driven by...

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine that started in March 2014 led Western countries and Russia to impose economic sanctions on each other, including the euro zone members. The paper investigates the impact of the sanctions on the real side of the economies of Russia and the euro area. The...

The studies summarised in this paper focus on the economic implications of euro area firms’ participation in global value chains (GVCs). They show how, and to what extent, a large set of economic variables and inter-linkages have been affected by international production sharing. The core...

This paper examines whether Euro Area countries would have faced a more favorable inflation output variability tradeoff without the Euro. We provide evidence that this claim is true for the periods of the Great Recession and the European Sovereign Debt Crisis. For the Euro Area as a whole, the...

We study determinants of sovereign portfolios of Spanish banks over a long time-span, starting in 2008. Our findings challenge the view that banks engaged in moral hazard strategies to exploit the regulatory treatment of sovereign exposures. In particular, we show that being a weakly capitalized...

We examine the relationship between private bank deposits and macro/fiscal risk in the euro area. We test three hypotheses: First, private bank deposits relative to Germany are determined by macro/fiscal risk factors. Second, this relationship is time-varying. Third, time-variation is driven by...

This dissertation deals with current account deficits and public debt in the Euro area. The thesis is in three parts. In part one, I assess movements in relative prices which are necessary to achieve an output-neutral reversal of the current account deficits that arose in Greece, Italy, Portugal...

The current global economic environment remains harsh. Global growth rates stagnated in the fourth quarter of 2018, particularly affected by foreign trade. DIW Berlin’s forecast indicates global economic growth of 3.7 percent for 2019 and 3.6 percent for 2020. Positive stimuli are expected...

We examine the degree of market power in the big four countries of the euro area using macro and firm-micro data. We focus on three main indicators of market power in and across countries: namely, the concentration ratios, the markup and the degree of economic dynamism. For the macro database we...

This paper employs an aggregate representation of an overlapping generation (OLG) model quantifying a decrease of the natural real interest rate in the range of -1.7 and -0.4 percentage points in the euro area between 1990 and 2030 due to demographics alone. Two channels contribute to this...

The asset purchase programme of the euro area, active between 2015 and 2018, constitutes an interesting special case of Quantitative Easing (QE) because the ECB’s Public Sector Purchase Programme (PSPP) involved the purchase of peripheral euro area government bonds, which were clearly not...

The paper proposes a framework for assessing the impact of system-wide and bank-level capital buffers. The assessment rests on a factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) model that relates individual bank adjustments to macroeconomic dynamics. We estimate FAVAR models individually for...

We present new evidence on the structure of euro area securities markets using a multilayer network approach. Layers are broken down by key instruments and maturities as well as the secured nature of the transaction. This paper utilizes a unique dataset of banking sector crossholdings of...

In this paper we investigate the impact of the euro integration process on the drivers of FDI inflows. We show theoretically and empirically that the single currency alters the drivers of FDI inflows across its Member States. Estimating bilateral gravity models of FDI inflows into euro area...

This paper studies the relationship between the business cycle and financial intermediation in the euro area. We establish stylized facts and study their stability during the global financial crisis and the European sovereign debt crisis. Long-term interest rates have been exceptionally high and...