We construct a macro DSGE model of the eurozone and its two main regions, the North and the South, with the aim of matching the macro facts of these economies by indirect inference and using the resulting empirically-based model to assess possible new policy regimes. The model we have found to...

This paper evaluates the impact of the March 2020 European Central Bank recommendation that banks do not pay dividends or buy back shares on their market values. It documents a causal negative impact on bank share prices of around 7% during the two weeks following its announcement. The...

This paper investigates to what extent the introduction of negative monetary policy rates altered the competitive behaviour in the euro area banking sector. Specifically, it analyses the effect that negative policy rates had on euro area banks' market power in comparison to banks that have not...

Topic analysis of the European Central Bank (ECB) press conferences reveals meaningful communication patterns. Similar press conferences are clustered in time ¦ The revisions to the ECB narrative accompany the changes in policy direction. Market volatility increases when the ECB substantially...

We study how monetary policy affects local market competition in a union of countries experiencing different economic conditions: the euro area. We find that when monetary conditions tighten (loosen), from the point of view of an individual economy, market concentration increases (declines)....

How is the price level determined in a monetary union when the common monetary policy pegs the nominal interest rate? How are the price levels in the member countries determined? We extend the fiscal theory of the price level to the case of a heterogenous monetary union. Price level determinacy...

The COVID-19 pandemic had disastrous effects on health and economic activity worldwide, including in the Euro Area. The application of mandatory lockdowns contributed to a sharp fall in production and a rise in unemployment, inducing an expansionary fiscal and monetary response. Using a uniquely...

In this paper we augment the Bayesian unobserved components model of the EU Commission to estimate the cyclical component of total factor productivity (TFP gap) with a factor structure to include a wide array of business cycle indicators. We demonstrate that this model extension considerably...

Differences in labour market institutions and regulations between countries of the monetary union can cause divergent responses even to a common shock. We augment a multi-country model of the euro area with search and matching framework that differs across Ricardian and hand-to-mouth households....

This paper compares within-sample and out-of-sample fit of a DSGE model with rational expectations to a model with adaptive learning. The Galí, Smets and Wouters model is the chosen laboratory using quarterly real-time euro area data vintages, covering 2001Q1-2019Q4. The adaptive learning model...

This report looks backwards to the worldwide use of (enhanced) lender of last resort (LOLR) and market maker of last resort (MMLR) facilities during the global financial and the pandemic crises. It discusses how LOLR and MMLR facilities have worked; looking ahead, it considers what benefits and...

Output gap revisions can be large even after many years. Real-time reliability tests might therefore be sensitive to the choice of the final output gap vintage that the real-time estimates are compared to. This is the case for the Federal Reserve's output gap. When accounting for revisions in...

Since early 2021, consumer price inflation has risen sharply across the advanced economies, including the US, the euro area and Denmark. We argue that the surge in inflation in the three economies in 2021-22 reflects multiple factors, including the Covid19 pandemic in 2020-21 and the Russian war...

Part of the present inflation is caused by the breakdown of globalization, in particular supply chains, part is caused by the Corona Pandemic, in particular lockdowns, part is caused by the Ukrainian War, part is caused by European sanctions, and part - and not the smallest one - is caused by...

This paper provides a comprehensive empirical analysis of the role of discretionary fiscal policy for inflation differentials across the 19 euro area countries over the period 1999-2019. The results confirm existing (older) literature that it is difficult to find robust evidence of the fiscal...

This paper investigates determinants of convergence in GDP per capita in the euro area and the EU between 1995 and 2021. It finds that the COVID-19 crisis temporarily slowed convergence but the estimated negative impact is significantly smaller than during the global financial crisis. Diverging...

This study discusses recent and current conditions relating to financial stability in the euro area, developing, in particular, on the impact of the current “inflation crisis” on financial stability vulnerabilities. Furthermore, it addresses two related priorities for the Single Resolution...

Recent developments in the monetary situation in West Africa, in particular the transformation for the CFA franc area and the project to build a single currency for the CEDEAO/ECOWAS, require a systematic review of the assumptions underlying the formation of monetary unions. The article provides...

We show that "zombie credit" - cheap credit to impaired firms - has a disinflationary effect. By helping distressed firms to stay afloat, such credit creates excess production capacity, thereby putting downward pressure on product prices. Granular European data on inflation, firms, and banks...

This paper focuses on the critical differences, but also some commonalities, between the EU and three countries in Northeast Asia - the People's Republic of China (PRC), the Republic of Korea, and Japan ‒ in responding to financial crises. The EU's response is naturally multilateral, but the...

Using two measures of the fiscal position, the cyclically adjusted primary budget balance (CAPB) and the total budget balance, we assess the Twin Deficit Hypothesis for the Euro Area in the period 1995-2020. Furthermore, we estimate time-varying coefficients of the current account balance...

The pandemic that erupted in 2020 generated a significant increase in public debt, which is likely to draw the attention of economic policy and the economic profession to the evolution and sustainability of debt. This study first shows how the gross sovereign nominal consolidated government debt...

Das Konditionalitätsprinzip hat sich in der Europäischen Union von einem Element ihrer auswärtigen Politik zu einem Instrument der Governance in der EU entwickelt. Dabei können verschiedene Typen der Konditionalität in der EU unterschieden werden: a) die Eintrittskonditionalität; b) die...

We examine the sustainability of public finances and its determinants for 19 Eurozone countries from 1995 to 2020. We conclude for the existence of panel cointegration between government revenues and expenditures; primary government balance and one-period lagged public debt-to-GDP ratio; and...

The Russian government's attack on Ukraine and the spiral of sanctions that has been set in motion have heightened inflationary pressure - especially in Europe. The EU's high dependency on Russian oil and gas imports harbours the risk that inflation in Europe will rise significantly and that the...

The decline of "natural real interest rates" during the last three decades is a common phenomenon in all advanced economies and can be explained by a number of structural factors: the downward trend in potential growth; population ageing, which has led to higher savings rates in many countries;...

The rapid recovery of demand combined with supply constraints has led to rising prices during the past months. This is evident in oil and gas markets, but also in international trade, which has been thrown out of step by bottlenecks at Asian ports. This situation creates a trade-off for the...