Global financial markets have witnessed a secular decline in interest rates since the the mid-1990s. This development was initially largely driven by the effects of globalization on production and increased trade, resulting in lower inflationary forces, especially in developed economies. In the...

We analyze the degree of anchoring of inflation expectations in the euro area during the post-crisis period, with a focus on the time span from 2014 onwards when long-term beliefs have substantially drifted away from the policy target. Using a new estimation technique, we look at tail...

This paper analyses the distribution of long-term inflation expectations in the euro area using individual density forecasts from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters. We exploit the panel dimension in this dataset to examine whether this distribution became less stable following the Great...

In this paper we analyse the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) in the euro area as a whole and for four euro area members - Germany, France, Italy and Spain. For that purpose we use Bayesian VARs with identification based on a combination of zero and sign restrictions. Our results emphasize that...

We develop a theoretical model that features a business cycle-dependent relation between out- put, price inflation and inflation expectations, augmenting the model by Svensson (1997) with a nonlinear Phillips curve that reflects the rationale underlying the capacity constraint theory (Macklem...

Inflation in the euro area has been falling since mid-2013, turned negative at the end of 2014 and remained below target thereafter. This paper employs a Bayesian VAR to quantify the contribution of a set of structural shocks, identified by means of sign restrictions, to inflation and economic...

The euro area sovereign debt crisis has highlighted the importance of reducing public debt levels and building up sufficient fiscal buffers during normal and good times. It has also reaffirmed the need for a thorough debt sustainability analysis (DSA) to act as a warning system for national...

Revenue elasticities play a key role in forecasting, monitoring and analysing public finances under the European fiscal framework, which largely builds on cyclically adjusted indicators. This paper investigates whether there is evidence for dynamic - instead of the currently used static -...

We propose a shadow-rate term structure model for the euro area yield curve from 1999 to mid-2015, when bond yields had turned negative at various maturities. Yields in the model are constrained by a lower bound, but - as a special feature of our specification - the bound is allowed to change...

The euro area has several problems. Nevertheless, there is not only strong political support for it, but also most companies back the euro or at least do not complain. It is worthwhile to analyse which companies do profit from the euro and why most others do not oppose it. Exporting companies in...

In June 2014 the ECB became the first major central bank to lower one of its key policy rates to negative territory. The theoretical and empirical literature is silent on whether banks’ reaction would be different when the policy rate is lowered to negative levels compared to a standard...

The fiscal consolidation measures adopted in many euro area countries over 2010-13 reduced excessive domestic fiscal imbalances, but came at the cost of short-term output losses. This simultaneous tightening of fiscal policy raised concerns that such output losses might be exacerbated by...

The paper analyses the common European monetary policy based on a Mises-Hayek overinvestment framework, which is combined with the theory of optimum currency areas. It shows how since the turn of the millennium a too expansionary monetary policy contributed to unsustainable overinvestment booms...

We use industry valuation differentials across European countries to study the impact of membership in the European Union as well as the Eurozone on economic and financial integration. In integrated markets, discount rates and expected growth opportunities should be similar within one industry,...

The authors analyse 149 newly compiled monthly time series on financial market stress conditions in the euro area. With the aid of a factor model they find different sources of financial stress that are important for selecting and preparing the appropriate policy response. The existence of a...

This paper estimates a fiscal reaction function (FRF) framework for euro area countries and derives a novel approach to measure fiscal fatigue. As in previous studies, we find evidence that euro area sovereigns abide, on average, by (weak) sustainability constraints. The primary balance improves...

This paper sheds new light on the information content of monetary and credit aggregates for future price developments in the euro area. Overall, we find strong variation in the information content of these variables over time. We show that monetary and credit aggregates are very often selected...

The paper presents a model-based assessment of fiscal multipliers operating in the euro area during the period 2011-2014. The assessment is conditional on two distinct reactions of the sovereign risk premium (either responding endogenously to fiscal shocks or being an exogenous process) and two...

This paper investigates the link between sovereign ratings and macroeconomic fundamentals for a group of euro area countries which recorded rating downgrades amid the euro area sovereign debt crisis. We apply an elaborated econometric estimation technique, based on a Bayesian ordered probit...

In this paper, we study the dynamics and drivers of sovereign bond yields in euro area countries using a factor model with time-varying loading coefficients and stochastic volatility, which allows for capturing changes in the pricing mechanism of bond yields. Our key contribution is exploring...

This year and next, global GDP will grow more strongly than expected. The growth rate should be just under four percent. In developed economies, the continuing improvement in the job market situation will drive consumption. Corporate investment activity will also gain momentum. Over the forecast...

In the aftermath of the global financial and economic crisis, the ECB became deeply involved in activities aimed at stabilizing the financial system, over-leveraged banks, and over-indebted governments. This article addresses the costs of these monetary policy measures, which heavily exceed the...

Among many other issues, the global financial crisis brought to the fore the question of how monetary policy and financial stability interact . in both a positive and a normative way. Understanding this relationship and its implications for monetary policy is an ongoing process, with many...

During and after the Great Recession of 2008/09, the European Central Bank (ECB) adopted far-reaching measures, including reductions in the main refinancing rate, a long-term refinancing operation (LTRO), outright purchases of selected government bonds (SMP), and more generous collateral...

Since the financial crisis in 2007–08, central bank balance sheets in advanced economies have expanded significantly. This expansion has not led to inflation risks (at least not to date), but it has raised concerns about financial stability, which have been especially vocal in the euro area....

Over decades, if not centuries, the reputation of central banks has gone through ups and downs. The Great Moderation marked a period in which inflation came down from rather high levels. Growth and employment were at least satisfying and output variability declined substantially. Was this...

The world’s major central banks have radically altered their strategies since 2008 as they grappled with the great financial crisis and its various consequences. One view (Issing 2016) is that they have gone too far, and that their actions will result in inflation and loss of independence....

Die Finanz- und Eurokrise sind das gegenwärtig wichtigste wirtschaftliche und wirtschaftspolitische Thema, welches auch wirtschaftswissenschaftlich noch stärker untersucht und diskutiert werden sollte. Etliche Akteure haben zu diesen Krisen beigetragen, darunter auch...

In this paper, we provide evidence for a risk-taking channel of monetary policy transmission in the euro area. Our dataset covers the period 2003Q1-2016Q2 and includes, in addition to the standard variables for real GDP growth, inflation, and the main refinancing rate, indicators of bank lending...

Earlier research has shown that euro-area primary public debt markets affect secondary markets. We find that more successful auctions of euro area public debt, as captured by higher bid-to-cover ratios, lead to lower secondary-market yields following the auctions. This effect is stronger when...

We estimate the response of euro area sovereign bond yields to purchase operations under the ECB's Public Sector Purchase Programme (PSPP), using granular data on all PSPP-eligible securities at daily frequency. To avoid simultaneity bias in the estimated relationship between yields and purchase...

In this paper, we evaluate the first-stage pass-through, namely the responsiveness of import prices to the exchange rate changes, for a sample of euro area (EA) countries. Our study aims to shed further light on the role of microeconomic factors vs. macroeconomic factors in influencing the...

In this paper, we evaluate the first-stage pass-through, namely the responsiveness of import prices to the exchange rate changes, for a sample of euro area (EA) countries. Our study aims to shed further light on the role of microeconomic factors vs. macroeconomic factors in influencing the...

We use an original monthly dataset of 131 individual euro area banks to examine the effectiveness and transmission mechanism of the Eurosystem's credit support policies since the start of the crisis. First, we show that these policies have indeed been succesful in stimulating the credit flow of...