This paper explores a development strategy for peripheral economies by advocating for a paradigm shift from traditional economic models that rely on accumulating foreign reserves. It proposes the job guarantee policy, an automatic stabilizer based on a reserve pool of employed individuals, as a...

Lebanon's longstanding fixed exchange rate regime collapsed in the wake of the country's 2019 financial crisis. This paper examines the underlying causes of the collapse, offering a new policy framework based on a floating exchange rate system and detailing its superior qualities. However, the...

The aim of this paper is to investigate how the central bank of Mexico - a prototypical emerging market economy (EME) - adjusted its reaction coefficients according to an estimated Taylor-type rule in response to the COVID-19 pandemic and the posterior surge in inflation. To do so, we estimate a...

This paper explores a development strategy for peripheral economies by advocating for a paradigm shift from traditional economic models that rely on accumulating foreign reserves. It proposes the job guarantee (JG) policy, an automatic stabilizer based on a reserve pool of employed individuals,...

This paper investigates the cyclicality of international reserves and their role in macroeconomic stabilization. We challenge two widely held assumptions: (1) central banks typically manage IR counter-cyclically—accumulating reserves during booms and drawing them down during downturns; and (2)...

This study examines the floating rate channel-a mechanism through which monetary policy affects firms' investment and credit demand based on their exposure to variable rate loans. Using a granular loan-level dataset from the euro area, we find that firms with variable rate loans significantly...

We use a theoretical model to set up the conditions for a country to attain monetary stability by allowing for two freely tradable currencies to circulate in parallel. For this parallel system to function properly, confidence in the good behavior of the monetary authorities in charge of the two...

In the Mundell-Fleming framework, standard monetary policy and exchange rate flexibility fully insulate economies from shocks. However, that framework abstracts from many real world imperfections, and countries often resort to unconventional policies to cope with shocks, such as COVID-19. This...

We provide a theory on currency dynamics, capital flows and conditions for emerging market economy central bank asset purchases to leave room for manoeuvre for conventional monetary policy. Local-currency asset purchases ease financial conditions and boost banks’ foreign borrowing capacity....

Purpose: Providing a structured literature review on the flexiblization of exchange rate regime in emerging countries with a focus on recent studies conducted in the field, in order to identify promising opportunities of future research. Design/methodology/approach: Starting with a review of the...

Under a floating exchange rate and integrated financial markets an optimizing central bank acting under discretion to achieve domestic objectives generates a positive co-movement between the domestic and the foreign interest rate in a small open economy. A high degree of positive co-movement...

Using a new equity price-based measure of the global financial cycle, this paper evaluates the relative importance of global financial shocks for quarterly equity returns and output growths in a large sample of advanced and emerging economies, as well as in South Korea and China--two countries...

This paper assesses the stabilization properties of fixed versus flexible exchange rate regimes and aims to answer this research question: Does greater exchange rate flexibility help an economy's adjustment to weather shocks? To address this question, the impact of weather shocks on real per...

This paper investigates inconsistencies between countries' official exchange rate regime declarations (the so-called de jure exchange rate regimes) and their actual policy (de facto exchange rate regimes). These exchange rate regime gaps decrease the credibility of monetary policy and are...

This working paper was written by Yin-wong Cheung (University of California, Santa Cruz) and Kon S. Lai (California State University, Los Angeles).This study investigates whether greater nominal exchange rate flexibility aids real exchange rate adjustment based on data from dual exchange rates...

This working paper was written by Kang Shi (The Chinese University of Hong Kong) and Juanyi Xu (Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, and Simon Fraser University).This paper develops a small open economy model with sticky prices to show why a flexible exchange rate policy is not...

Milton Friedman was a strong proponent of flexible exchange rates accompanied by a domestic monetary rule. He believed that such a combination would deliver superior economic performance and would also be more consistent with democratic principles than a regime based on fixed exchange rates and...

This paper assumes that the major industrial countries (and probably most other major countries) will continue to employ inflation targeting and allow their exchange rates to float, in the sense of accepting no obligation to hold the rate at any particular level. However, it points out that...

Milton Friedman’s famous 1953 essay, “The case for flexible exchange rates,” deals entirely with advanced nations. An interesting question is what Friedman thought about exchange rate and monetary regimes in emerging economies. In this paper I investigate how his views on the subject...

This paper investigates the nonlinearity of exchange rate pass-through in the Brazilian economy during the floating exchange rate period (2000-2018) using a Markov-switching new Keynesian DSGE model. We find evidence of two distinct regimes for the exchange rate pass-through and for the...

We provide a theory on currency dynamics, capital flows and conditions for central bank asset purchases to leave room for manoeuvre on conventional monetary policy. Asset purchases ease financial conditions and boost banks’ foreign borrowing capacity. The ensuing capital inflows lead to an...

A classic argument for flexible exchange rates is that the exchange rate plays a 'shock-absorber' role in an open economy vulnerable to country-specific shocks. This paper presents a sharp counter-example to this argument within a very conventional open economy model. Countries are subject to...

Almost all developed economies at some time during the 1970s seemed supply-constrained. Even much of measured excess capacity was arguably redundant due to energy price shocks, environmental policy, and other structural flux of the 1970s. Little analytical work has been carried out on the...

This study analyzes the dynamics of exchange market pressure in Turkey by employing the Markov regime switching model for the period from January 2006 to December 2019. Our findings show that there are two regimes in the foreign exchange market, characterized as low- and high-pressure periods....

This paper assesses the stabilization properties of fixed versus flexible exchange rate regimes and aims to answer this research question: Does greater exchange rate flexibility help an economy’s adjustment to weather shocks? To address this question, the impact of weather shocks on real per...

The Central Bank of Algeria has announced a managed float of the Algerian dinar since 1994. Yet, there are some substantial differences between various de facto classifications of Algeria's exchange rate regime. This study looks into the exchange rate regime of Algeria, aiming to identify de...