This paper investigates the impact of hurricanes on school attendance in Jamaica from 1892 to 1942, a period marked by significant natural disasters, including four category two hurricanes. By integrating monthly school attendance data from the fourteen Jamaican parishes with assessments of...

This paper explores a development strategy for peripheral economies by advocating for a paradigm shift from traditional economic models that rely on accumulating foreign reserves. It proposes the job guarantee (JG) policy, an automatic stabilizer based on a reserve pool of employed individuals,...

Modern monetary theory argues that all governments that issue their own currency have the same policy space. The present paper argues that this position is wrong. For it to be valid, abstraction must be made from the gravitational force of the US dollar that stems from its backing mass of...

In July 1991, India began to dismantle its long-standing, highly restrictive import control regime and move toward a more open economy. How were policymakers able to dislodge and replace an entrenched system with powerful vested interests behind it? Standard explanations for policy change -...

This report provides an overview of the technical assistance provided by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to the Banco de la República to support the authorities in reviewing the regulatory framework and formulating development strategies for the foreign exchange market

This paper analyzes the unanalized topic in macroeconomic (monetary) politics, which is the emergence of the currency crisis as a consequence of targeting inflation. Many central banks adopted inflation targeting under a pressure from the IMF. Sudden depreciation of exchange rate which results...

I estimate how monetary policy affects the exchange rate in Norway using a local projection instrumental variables (LP-IV) framework with high-frequency monetary policy surprises as instruments. I find that a surprise increase in the Norwegian policy interest rate leads to an immediate...

This paper explores the intricate relationship between profit rates, exchange rates, and terms of trade in the Brazilian economy from 2000 to 2023. Building on Weisskopf's (1979) decomposition of the profit rate, we demonstrate how exchange rates and terms of trade affect profit share, the...

The article analyzes why exchange rate stability has been prioritized in Mexico and why the national currency has appreciated; which policies and factors have made this possible, the costs and consequences of the strong peso, and its sustainability and temporality are also examined. Mexico's...

This paper uses a multi-methodological approach to measure the fiscal costs of monetary and exchange rate policy distortions in Zimbabwe. It identifies three channels through which these policy distortions affect tax revenue: the Olivera-Tanzi Effect (inflation-related tax payment lags), an...

The traditional approach to monetary policy, which relied on one instrument to achieve a single goal, has proven ineffective during recent periods of global instability. In response to the challenges that this traditional framework could not address, non-standard monetary policy instruments have...

Recently, there has been increasing research interest in the historical composition of central bank reserves. However, studies in this area is hindered by a lack of data, as such data spanning multiple centuries is only available for a small number of countries. This paper presents an empirical...

Central banks increasingly act as market-makers-of-last-resort, yet the impact and exit of such interventions remain poorly understood. Using euro-area data, we analyze the cycle of market freeze, intervention, and exit in short-term debt markets. A run on money market funds (MMFs) triggered a...

We delve into Venezuela's 2018-2019 hyperinflation episode to examine the policy constraints autocratic governments face during extreme economic distress. We develop a simple model that reflects dynamics in a segmented foreign exchange (FX) market and allows us to understand how media coverage...

In 1960, South Korea's exports were about 1 percent of GDP, and its ability to import depended almost entirely on U.S. aid. After changing its foreign exchange policies in the mid-1960s, Korea's exports surged to more than 10 percent of GDP by the end of the decade. This paper explores the...

Voluminous theoretical and empirical research shows that real exchange rate (RER) undervaluation could be conducive to economic development. Why do countries then often avoid the pursuit of policies that facilitate undervaluation or even intentionally pursue RER overvaluation? We address this...

This paper investigates the impact of hurricanes on school attendance in Jamaica from 1892 to 1942, a period marked by significant natural disasters, including four category two hurricanes. By integrating monthly school attendance data from the fourteen Jamaican parishes with assessments of...

This study examines the impact of exchange rate stability on the economic growth of South Africa from 2000 to 2023, a period characterised by significant political and economic changes. Exchange rate stability is critical for developing countries, affecting key macroeconomic variables such as...

The Great Depression is the canonical case of a widespread currency war, with more than 70 countries devaluing their currencies relative to gold between 1929 and 1936. What were the currency war’s effects on trade flows? We use newly-compiled, highfrequency bilateral trade data and gravity...

Aim: The study evaluated the impact of devaluation and goods price variation on trade flows in a sample of 47 countries consisting of developing and developed nations from 1990 to 2023. Design/Research methods: The estimation techniques adopted in this work are the Panel Structural VAR (PSVAR),...

The share of U.S. dollar assets in the official foreign exchange reserve portfolios of central banks is sometimes taken as an indicator of dollar status. We show that the observed decline in the aggregate share of U.S. dollar assets does not stem from a systematic shift in currency preferences...

The Russian authorities have been battling strong depreciation pressures, with the rouble having lost around 30% of its value since early 2023 (and inflationary pressures having risen strongly). The main reason for this is the declining supply of foreign exchange from foreign trade transactions,...

This paper analyzes the effectiveness of foreign exchange intervention (FXI) in mitigating economic and financial shocks in India by applying the Integrated Policy Framework (IPF). It highlights how FXI can be a complementary tool in mitigating the tradeoff between output and inflation,...

In a 157 emerging markets and developing countries sample, remittances continue to grow fast, outpacing other financial inflows (as a share of GDP), particularly in Asia. Without alternative policy instruments, foreign exchange interventions (FXIs) have often been the authorities' go-to tool to...

The AREAER provides a comprehensive description of restrictions on international trade and payments, capital controls, and measures implemented in the financial sector, including prudential measures that may affect capital flows for all IMF members. It also provides information on the...

Prof. Dr. Jürgen Stark war von 2006 bis 2012 Chefvolkswirt und Mitglied im Direktorium der Europäischen Zentralbank (EZB). Am 9. September 2011 kündigte er an, „aus persönlichen Gründen“ zurückzutreten. Er sah im Ankauf von Staatsanleihen eine Mandatsüberschreitung der EZB, die seiner...

This paper empirically examines the effect of the central banks independence on exchange rate volatility by using a large data-set for the E7 (7 emerging countries) covering the period 1998-2017. This paper applies the time-varying panel causality analysis to obtain country-based results. The...

This working paper contrasts the neo-Keynesian and post-Keynesian theories of monetary policy for an open economy, highlighting the irrelevance of the orthodox theory and the explanatory capacity of heterodoxy for an emerging economy such as Mexico. It focuses on the role of the central bank and...

This paper assesses the impact of pegging the CFA franc to the euro - at a fixed parity - on real GDP per capita in the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) and the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CAEMC) countries. Using a set of 35 annual country-level panel data...

This paper evaluates gains from international monetary policy cooperation between the financial center and periphery countries in a two-country open economy model consistent with global financial cycles. Compared to the non-cooperative Nash equilibrium, the optimal cooperative equilibrium...

This study examines the dynamics of the Russian currency against the US dollar, exploring its responses to geopolitical risk, domestic policies, and oil and gas price shocks. Based on our quantile and time-frequency analyses from January 1998 to July 2022, focused on a subsample that covers the...

In China, money, currency and payment transactions are manifestations of state sovereignty and political power. The primary objective of Chinese monetary policy is to maintain domestic stability, expand the scope of its own influence internationally, and reshape the global financial and monetary...

The electoral campaign of Argentina's new president Javier Milei has revived the debate over the pros and cons of dollarization. Critics argue that dollarizing would force Argentina to import the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, regardless of whether the Fed's policies are appropriate for...