Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the US, EU, and likeminded countries swiftly imposed an expanded set of primary and secondary export restrictions on Russia. This paper assesses the effectiveness of those measures and their ongoing refinement and modification over time...

There are still a number of UN arms embargoes in place to prevent the flow of arms and military material into conflict zones. Although the UN Security Council is not generally deadlocked on this issue, it has only taken relevant decisions to re-design the embargoes in a few cases over the last...

In November 2015, Turkey’s unexpected downing of a Russian military jet in Syria prompted Russia to impose a swift and comprehensive embargo on specific Turkish exports. This study leverages this quasi-natural experiment to estimate both the immediate and longer-term effects of the imposition...

We propose a data-based approximation of the effects of trade sanctions. We validate the approximation by comparing it with exact responses simulated from a canonical multi-country multi-sector model. The approximation is palatable for a broad range of elasticities of substitution, except for...

In a controversial policy paper, Bachmann et al. (2022) argued back in March 2022 that the economic effects for Germany of a complete immediate stop of energy imports from Russia would be small, between 0.5% and 3% of GDP. Baqaee et al. (2022) even presented 0.3% GDP loss in the case of an...

The COVID-19 pandemic as well as the Russian invasion of Ukraine have had profound effects on the global energy landscape, with some of the longer-lasting effects still unfolding. This paper discusses how these events have reshaped the supply side of the global oil market by focusing on...

This paper examines the impact of coalitions on the economic costs of the 2012 Iran and 2014 Russia sanctions. By estimating and simulating a quantitative general equilibrium trade model under different coalition setups, we (i) dissect welfare losses for sanctions senders and target; (ii)...

In this paper, we focus on the impact of a occasionally binding quantity constraint on fossil fuel imports and compare the effects with those of an exogenous fossil fuel markup price shock. We show that while both shocks have similar responses to GDP and CPI inflation, they differ with respect...

We provide quantitative evidence that the primary effects of economic sanctions are accompanied by strong extraterritorial effects – estimates of the former effects may be significantly biased if the latter effects are not taken into account. An econometric analysis of the U.S. embargo on Cuba...

Sanctions are meant to coerce political adversaries through economic measures. However, evidence for their effectiveness is scarce. In this paper we assess the impact of sanctions on a democracy - France - by studying the electoral consequences of the sanctions and countersanctions imposed...

In 2019 and the early months of 2020, global trade faced two major albeit very different shocks, namely the United States-China trade war and the cascading response of the countries around the world to the COVID-19 pandemic. While the former situation involved a pair of centrally-placed trading...

Strong harvest shortfall and high world market prices prompted the Russian government to implement a wheat export ban in 2010 aiming to dampen domestic wheat prices. Building on regional price and trade data of Russia's wheat producing regions, we find strengthened domestic wheat market...

This brief aims to contribute to the ongoing discussion on the use of sanctions as a coercive tool of international policymaking, focusing on the economic effects of the sanctions on the Russian Federation ('Russia') following its invasion of Ukraine. Using computable general equilibrium...

This paper shows the impact of immigration and ethnic diversity on corporate behavior. I use the lifting of the trade embargo against Vietnam as an exogenous shock to product market competition, I show that immigrant networks formed before the embargo was lifted is the channel through which...

Unlike produced commodities, the extraction and sale of oil or natural gas is an "asset swap": assets stored in the ground are converted into financial assets. The value of assets in the ground is reduced by the amount taken out and sold. This is important for assessing the coercive power of the...

Companies and countries have needed to adapt their activities to the consequences of the Russian war in Ukraine. The analysis in this article shows that both the Russian war in Ukraine and the subsequent trade restrictions have become a powerful trigger, significantly increasing the level of...

This paper examines the impact of coalitions on the economic costs of the 2012 Iran and 2014 Russia sanctions. By estimating and simulating a quantitative general equilibrium trade model under different coalition set-ups, we (i) dissect welfare losses for sanction-senders and target; (ii)...

This paper examines the impact of coalitions on the economic costs of the 2012 Iran and 2014 Russia sanctions. By estimating and simulating a quantitative general equilibrium trade model under different coalition set-ups, we (i) dissect welfare losses for sanction-senders and target; (ii)...

Palm oil is the world's most widely used vegetable cooking oil. Indonesia and Malaysia produce 57% and 27% of palm oil available in the global market, respectively. In addition to being a popular source of cooking oil, palm oil is also processed into biodiesel and used as an ingredient for...

The US set an oil export ban after the Iranian crisis in the 1970s due to energy security issues. Since US oil production has been continuously diminishing, there had not been many issues until recently. However, after the hydraulic fracturing technology was introduced to development of shale in...

Western powers have discussed and implemented several policies in response to the full scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. One such possible answer was an immediate embargo on all Russian energy exports to the EU. While seen as a strong measure against Russia's war effort, some...

Dieser Artikel reagiert kritisch auf die Forderung einer Gruppe namhafter Wirtschaftsethiker, Unternehmen sollten um ihrer gesellschaftlichen Verantwortung willen sämtliche Geschäftsbeziehungen mit Russland sofort und beinahe ausnahmslos unterbinden. Gegen diese Forderung werden drei Einwände...

In this essay, I outline a method to compute the economic impact of a sudden stop of natural gas imports from Russia. First, I estimate the reduction in the short-run supply of natural gas for the economy and the industry sector. Second, I use model simulations to analyse the effect of a sudden...

In der politischen Debatte um die richtige Reaktion des Westens auf den russischen Angriffskrieg auf die Ukraine steht neben den bereits beschlossenen Sanktionen ein sofortiges Gasembargo als Mittel im Raum, um den wirtschaftspolitischen Druck auf Russland zu erhöhen. Hier ist insbesondere...

We show that the exchange rate may appreciate or depreciate depending on the specific mix of sanctions imposed, even if the underlying equilibrium allocation is the same. Sanctions that limit a country's imports tend to appreciate the country's exchange rate, while sanctions that limit exports...

"Prompted by geostrategic rivalry and the war in Ukraine, COVID-19 and the climate transition, trade policy is increasingly being weaponized. This trend towards protectionist capture and retaliation is self-sabotaging and bad for growth. But there is another way.In this hard-hitting book, Ken...