According to the last proposals of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, banks or insurance companies under the advanced measurement approach (AMA) must use four different sources of information to assess their operational risk capital requirement. The fourth includes ’business...

Using daily observations of the index and stock market returns for the Peruvian case from January 3, 1990 to May 31, 2013, this paper models the distribution of daily loss probability, estimates maximum quantiles and tail probabilities of this distribution, and models the extremes through a...

This paper develops a Monte-Carlo backtesting procedure for risk premia strategies and employs it to study Time-Series Momentum (TSM). Relying on time-series models, empirical residual distributions and copulas we overcome two key drawbacks of conventional backtesting procedures. We create...

This paper attempted to calculate the market risk in the Tehran Stock Exchange by estimating the Conditional Value at Risk. Since the Conditional Value at Risk is a tail-related measure, Extreme Value Theory has been utilized to estimate the risk more accurately. Generalized Autoregressive...

This paper develops a Monte-Carlo backtesting procedure for risk premia strategies and employs it to study Time-Series Momentum (TSM). Relying on time-series models, empirical residual distributions and copulas we overcome two key drawbacks of conventional backtesting procedures. We create...

In this paper the authors introduce a new hybrid approach based on the Extreme Value Theory (EVT) to joint estimation of Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) for high quantiles of return distributions. The approach is suitable for measuring market risk in the emerging markets. It is...

In this study, we compare the out-of-sample forecasting performance of several modern Value-at- Risk (VaR) estimators derived from extreme value theory (EVT). Specifically, in a multi-asset study covering 30 years of stock, bond, commodity and currency market data, we analyse the accuracy of the...

One of the key components of financial risk management is risk measurement. This typically requires modeling, estimating and forecasting tail-related quantities of the asset returns' conditional distribution. Recent advances in the financial econometrics literature have developed several models...

According to the last proposals of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, banks or insurance companies under the advanced measurement approach (AMA) must use four different sources of information to assess their operational risk capital requirement. The fourth includes 'business environment...

One of the key components of financial risk management is risk measurement. This typically requires modeling, estimating and forecasting tail-related quantities of the asset returns’ conditional distribution. Recent advances in the financial econometrics literature have developed several...

Over the last three decades, the world economy has been facing stock market crashes, currency crisis, the dot-com and real estate bubble burst, credit crunch and banking panics. As a response, extreme value theory (EVT) provides a set of ready-made approaches to risk management analysis....

The last global financial crisis (2007–2008) has highlighted the weaknesses of value at risk (VaR) as ameasure of market risk, as this metric by itself does not take liquidity risk into account. To address this problem, the academic literature has proposed incorporating liquidity risk into...

Using daily observations of the index and stock market returns for the Peruvian case from January 3, 1990 to May 31, 2013, this paper models the distribution of daily loss probability, estimates maximum quantiles and tail probabilities of this distribution, and models the extremes through a...

Pareto processes are suitable to model stationary heavy-tailed data. Here, we consider the auto-regressive Gaver-Lewis Pareto Process and address a study of the tail behavior. We characterize its local and long-range dependence. We will see that consecutive observations are asymptotically tail...

The Bulletin of EU & US Inflation and Macroeconomic Analysis (BIAM) is a monthly publication that has been reporting real time analysis and forecasts for inflation and other macroeconomic aggregates for the Euro Area, the US and Spain since 1994. The BIAM inflation forecasting methodology stands...

Pareto processes are suitable to model stationary heavy-tailed data. Here, we consider the auto-regressive Gaver–Lewis Pareto Process and address a study of the tail behavior. We characterize its local and long-range dependence. We will see that consecutive observations are asymptotically tail...

We study whether prices of traded options contain information about future extreme market events. Our option-implied conditional expectation of market loss due to tail events, or tail loss measure, predicts future market returns, magnitude, and probability of the market crashes, beyond and above...

During the Global Financial Crisis, regulators imposed short-selling bans to protect financial institutions. The rationale behind the bans was that "bear raids", driven by short-sellers, would increase the individual and systemic risk of financial institutions, especially for institutions with...

In this study, we compare the out-of-sample forecasting performance of several modern Value-at- Risk (VaR) estimators derived from extreme value theory (EVT). Specifically, in a multi-asset study covering 30 years of stock, bond, commodity and currency market data, we analyse the accuracy of the...

In this paper the authors introduce a new hybrid approach based on the Extreme Value Theory (EVT) to joint estimation of Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) for high quantiles of return distributions. The approach is suitable for measuring market risk in the emerging markets. It is...