Participants in the maritime industry place much interest in the Forward Freight Agreements (FFA/FFAs), being an indispensable tool for hedging shipping freight risk. Our paper innovates by directly comparing the FFA predictions with their actual future settlement prices as well as by examining...

The main purpose of this comprehensive study is to determine the optimal hedge ratios and hedging effectiveness of different futures contracts traded on the Borsa Istanbul (BIST), namely the BIST 30 equity index, US dollar–Turkish lira currency futures (USD-TRY), euro–Turkish lira (EUR-TRY)...

US dairy futures markets of milk, butter, cheese, and dry whey exhibit unique volatility patterns under the Federal Milk Marketing Order pricing scheme. We show dairy volatilities have a relatively low connectedness among themselves and a commodity index. Dairy futures markets respond to...

We analyze the lead-lag relationship between VIX futures and SPX futures on a sample of high-frequency data. We find that the two futures markets are weakly connected when market volatility is low. In contrast, when volatility is high, their prices are highly negatively correlated and with the...

The introduction of derivatives on Bitcoin enables investors to hedge risk exposures in cryptocurrencies. Because of volatility swings and jumps in cryptocurrency prices, the traditional variance-based approach to obtaining hedge ratios is infeasible. As a consequence, we consider two extensions...

Using daily returns on 34 futures contracts over the 2010-2022 period, we examine the factors driving these returns. We show that all commodities can be grouped by their drivers into intuitive groups based on their factorization into 1) food, 2) metals and oil and 3) precious metals. The three...

The Green Paradox posits that fossil fuel markets respond to changing expectations about climate legislation, which limits future consumption, by shifting consumption to the present through lower present-day prices. We demonstrate that oil futures responded negatively to daily changes in the...

Perpetual futures are contracts without expiration date in which the anchoring of the futures price to the spot price is ensured by periodic funding payments from long to short. We derive explicit expressions for the no-arbitrage price of various perpetual contracts, including linear, inverse,...

This paper uses high frequency data to detect shifts in financial markets' perception of the Federal Reserve stance on inflation. We construct daily revisions to expectations of future nominal interest rates and inflation that are priced into nominal and inflation-protected bonds, and find that...

We study the pricing of uncertainty shocks using a wide-ranging set of options that reveal premia for macroeconomic risks. Portfolios hedging macro uncertainty have historically earned zero or even significantly positive returns, while those exposed to the realization of large shocks have earned...

This paper investigates how technical trading systems exploit the momentum and reversal effects in the S&P 500 spot and futures market. When based on daily data, the profitability of 2580 technical models has steadily declined since 1960, and has been unprofitable since .the early 1990s....

Over the last years, farmers have been increasingly exposed to income risk due to the volatility of the commodities prices. Among others, hedging in futures markets (i.e., financial markets) represents an available strategy for producers to cope with income risks at farm level. To better...

This paper examines the relative contribution of regular and e-mini futures market to price discovery of EUR/USD futures contracts on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), using intraday data in 2010.The relative contribution to price discovery is estimated using the information share approach...

Conventional collateral requirements are highly conservative but are not explicitly designed to deal with systemic risk. This paper explores the adequacy of conventional collateral levels against systemic risk in the Canadian futures market during the 2008 crisis. Our results show that...

This paper considers the problem of model uncertainty in the case of multi-asset volatility models and discusses the use of model averaging techniques as a way of dealing with the risk of inadvertently using false models in portfolio management. Evaluation of volatility models is then considered...

This paper considers a multivariate t version of the Gaussian dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) model proposed by Engle (2002), and suggests the use of devolatized returns computed as returns standardized by realized volatilities rather than by GARCH type volatility estimates. The t-DCC...

"The highly successful first edition of Following the Trend: Diversified Managed Futures Trading presented a systematic asset management methodology employed by the CTA industry, explaining their strategies in such a way as to enable the reader to emulate their success. This fully updated new...

While an extensive amount of literature exists on the role of futures markets in influencing various dynamics of spot markets, the question whether they stabilize or destabilize the underlying spot market is unresolved. This study addresses this concern and investigates the impact of SSFs...

This paper studies the effect of new gold derivatives products, including Gold-D and Gold Online Futures, on the futures price volatility of existing gold futures with two contract sizes, 50 baht-weight and 10 baht-weight, using symmetric and asymmetric GARCH family models, namely: GARCH (1,1),...

In this paper, we propose an innovative VIX model which takes future market information available to the traders into account. The future information is modeled by an initially enlarged filtration in our setup. We derive an explicit representation for the anticipative VIX process and obtain the...

This study investigates the lead-lag relationship between the price movements of VIX futures and VIX index levels. As a proxy for the futures, the front month VIX futures contract is used. A Johansen cointegration approach with a vector error correction model and Granger causality analysis are...

We demonstrate how a machine learning algorithm can be applied to predict and explain modern market microstructure phenomena. We investigate the efficacy of various microstructure measures and show that they continue to provide insights into price dynamics in current complex markets. Some...

We study the pricing of shocks to uncertainty and volatility using a novel and wide-ranging set of options contracts. If uncertainty shocks are viewed as bad by investors, portfolios that hedge them should earn negative premia. Empirically, however, such portfolios have historically earned...