After the 2008 financial crisis, macroeconomic positions and growth prospects weakened in the advanced economies; emerging market economies (EMEs) improved however. Offshore, local-currency bonds of EMEs became popular as result, with many EMEs exploiting the opportunity. India also launched its...

In the present paper we propose a new method, the Penalized Adaptive Method (PAM), for a data driven detection of structure changes in sparse linear models. The method is able to allocate the longest homogeneous intervals over the data sample and simultaneously choose the most proper variables...

Do regulations decrease dealer ability to intermediate trades? Using a unique data set of dealer-bond-level transactions, we link changes in liquidity of individual U.S. corporate bonds to dealers’ transaction activity and balance sheet constraints. We show that, prior to the financial crisis,...

This paper investigates the dynamic linkages in terms of the first and second moments between stock and bond returns, within a wide range of advanced economies, over the different phases of the recent financial crisis. The adopted empirical framework is a bivariate volatility model, where...

The post-crisis period has seen a considerable shift in the composition and drivers of international bank lending and international bond issuance, the two main components of global liquidity. The sensitivity of both types of flows to U.S. monetary policy rose substantially in the immediate...

Ever since the emergence of regular and predictable issuance of coupon-bearing Treasury debt in the 1970s, thirty years has marked the outer boundary of Treasury bond maturities. However, longer-term bonds were not unknown in earlier years. Seven such bonds, including one with a forty-year term,...

This paper investigates the long-term determinants of Indian government bonds' (IGB) nominal yields. It examines whether John Maynard Keynes's supposition that short-term interest rates are the key driver of long-term government bond yields holds over the long-run horizon, after controlling for...

This paper investigates the joint dynamics of nominal bond yields, real bond yields and dividend yields from the 80s up to the aftermath of the financial crisis by mapping them on a set of macro factors. It builds on an existing discrete time affine Gaussian model of the term structure model of...

In this paper, we study the dynamics and drivers of sovereign bond yields in euro area countries using a factor model with time-varying loading coefficients and stochastic volatility, which allows for capturing changes in the pricing mechanism of bond yields. Our key contribution is exploring...

Recent calculations have suggested that the German federal government has saved roughly EUR 90-100 billion, cumulatively, due to low bond yields since the onset of the Euro crisis. In order to determine the contribution of the "flight to quality" to this sum, we define the flight to quality as a...

This paper explores the extent to which changes to long-term interest rates in major advanced economies have influenced long-term government bond yields in Emerging Asia. To gauge long-term interest spillover effects, the paper uses VAR variance decompositions with high frequency data. Our...

How much do term premiums matter for explaining the dynamics of the term structure of interest rates? A lot. We characterize the expected path of nominal and real short-rates as well as inflation using the universe of U.S. surveys of professional forecasters covering more than 500 survey-horizon...

This paper first develops a new approach, which is based on the Nelson-Siegel term structure factor-augmented model, to compute the VaR of bond portfolios. We then applied the model to examine whether information contained on macroeconomic variables and financial shocks can help to explain the...

We analyze the impact of market frictions on trading volume and liquidity premia of finite maturity assets when investors differ in their trading needs. Our equilibrium model generates a clientele effect (frequently trading investors only hold short-term assets) and predicts i) a hump-shaped...

During the European financial crisis, the European Central Bank implemented a series of unconventional monetary policy measures. We argue that these unconventional monetary policy measures created soft budget constraints for the Eurozone countries by lowering their bond yield spreads. This...

We develop an empirical model of heterogeneous agents to study the dynamics of the European sovereign bonds market. Agents make use of different information from the CDS market and the historical price movements of the sovereign bonds for their trading decisions. Subject to the perceived risk,...

In this paper, we propose a new method to assess the impact of sovereign ratings on sovereign bond yields. We estimate the impulse response of the interest rate, following a change in the rating. Since ratings are ordinal and moreover extremely persistent, it proves difficult to estimate those...

This paper proposes a forecasting model that combines a factor augmented VAR (FAVAR) methodology with the Nelson and Siegel (NS) parametrization of the yield curve to predict the Brazilian term structure of interest rates. Importantly, we extract the principal components for the FAVAR from a...

We compute joint sovereign default probabilities as coincident systemic risk indicators. Instead of commonly used CDS spreads, we use government bond yield data which provide a longer data history. We show that for the more recent sample period 2008--2015, joint default probabilities based on...

In Poland, more than 90% of electricity production is based on coal fuel. Meanwhile, the financial situation of the mining industry is quite challenging. Companies in this sector are in debt, generating losses caused by a sharp drop in coal prices and a simultaneous increase in extraction costs...

With the announcement to intervene on financial markets to restore the monetary transmission mechanism, the ECB has attenuated the pressure of the markets on the endangered peripheral countries of the Eurozone. Critics argue that by eliminating the markets’ disciplining interest mechanism,...

Systematische Abweichungen zwischen gehandelten Marktpreisen und fundamentalen Werten von Wertpapieren zeigen bis heute, dass Kapitalmärkte weder vollkommen noch effizient sind. Sowohl die Finanzmarktforschung als auch die Investmentpraxis befassen sich weiter mit der Suche nach geeigneten...

We describe and assess two dimensions of the current state of bond market development in developing Asia: the role of bond markets in overall financial systems and a comparison of the salient features of bond market development in developing Asia and other regions. We highlight key drivers and...

A consensus has recently emerged that a number of variables in addition to the level, slope, and curvature of the term structure can help predict interest rates and excess bond returns. We demonstrate that the statistical tests that have been used to support this conclusion are subject to very...

Cover -- Contents -- I. Introduction -- II. A Portfolio Model -- 2.1. The Demand for Assets -- 2.2. Equilibrium Conditions -- III. FX Intervention, Capital Controls, and the Policy Rate -- 3.1. Sterilized Intervention -- 3.2. Capital Controls -- 3.3. Policy Rate -- 3.4. Some Remarks on the...