This paper identifies the "idiosyncratic basis", the residual premia computed from stripping away the hypothetical cross-currency basis (CCB) from the cross-currency credit spread (CCCS) of eligible senior corporate dollardenominated bonds relative to their hypothetical euro-denominated...

We examine the relationship between oil as a major export for the member countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and the forward levels of all GCC currencies using wavelet analysis. We find that oil and GCC forward markets have significant but weak relationships at high frequencies. We...

The purpose of this study is to examine the role of options volatility and bid-ask spread as microstructural variables in determining whether the foreign exchange market’s price formation process in response to macroeconomic announcements is characterised by changes in risk perception and...

Does the primacy of the U.S. dollar affect the pricing of risks in the currency options market? Our findings rely on a daily option panel of 15 currencies. This analysis reveals that (i) put risk premiums are negative, implying across-the-board interest in hedging foreign currency depreciations;...

During China’s transition toward a more flexible exchange rate, it is essential to further develop its foreign exchange (FX) derivatives markets to meet the growing hedging needs associated with greater exchange rate fluctuations. Although over-the-counter (OTC) FX derivatives markets already...

The theoretical nature of risk premiums in foreign currency futures markets is derived and studied empirically. Estimation problems encountered in using futures data are discussed. Since forward rates and futures prices are demonstrated to be approximately equal, and because risk premiums in...

In the first part of this chapter, we explain the main characteristics of foreign exchange (FX) swap and cross-currency swap contracts. We emphasize the importance of the valuation adjustment (XVA) approach and then map the FX swap market in terms of currencies, parties, maturities, and size....

We study the links between sovereign credit risk and the currency forward bias. In a setting of defaultable sovereign bonds, we show that the forward bias can be linked negatively to sovereign credit risk. We confirm empirically that the forward bias is negatively associated to sovereign CDS...

This paper propounds that the Forward Premium Anomaly (FPA) arises due to misspecification in the extant empirical models, where ratios of the concerned variables are studied instead of their levels themselves. We study these variables directly instead of their ratios for 22 currency pairs from...

Suppose a rational agent can invest in domestic bonds (Euro (EUR) corporates) and foreign bonds (Dollar (USD) corporates) hedged into EUR using cross-currency swaps. Let xccy represent the cross-currency basis spread of the FX hedging, where xccy measures deviations from covered interest parity...

Using transaction level data from the inter-dealer market, we find that the price impact of one standard deviation change in FX swap order flow has increased from less than one basis point prior to 2008 to about five basis points after 2008. However, the increase in price impact is confined to...

We develop exact distribution-free test procedures for joint inference about the forward rate unbiasedness hypothesis (FRUH) across multiple currencies. The procedures can be applied with either levels or differences specifications. This unified approach proceeds with sign and signed rank tests...

In this paper, we consider the Heston-CIR model with Levy process for pricing in the foreign exchange (FX) market by providing a new formula that better fits the distribution of prices. To do that, first, we study the existence and uniqueness of the solution to this model. Second, we examine the...

Kang et al. (2020) find cross-sectional evidence that short- and long-term variation of position changes are driven by liquidity demand of noncommercials and hedging demands of commercials in commodity futures markets. In this paper, we find the commercials' hedging demands drive both short-term...

Abstracting from self-protection and self-insurance e ects of export produc-tion choices, exporting rms usually have access to a number of risk sharingmarkets that have an efficient risk management role. Two of the most strikingresults achieved from the existence of risk sharing markets are the...

The aim of this study is to determine the main factors affecting the use of foreign exchange hedging instruments by Chinese firms, following their regulatory changes in the derivative markets. The original contributions to this literature include the use of a panel dataset of 316 Chinese firms...

During China's transition toward a more flexible exchange rate, it is essential to further develop its foreign exchange (FX) derivatives markets to meet the growing hedging needs associated with greater exchange rate fluctuations. Although over-the-counter (OTC) FX derivatives markets already...

This paper analyses the explanatory power of the frequency of abnormal returns in the FOREX over the period 1994-2019. The following hypotheses are tested: frequency of abnormal returns is asignificant driver of price movements (H1); it does not exhibit seasonal patterns (H2); it is stable over...

A large literature suggests that standard exchange rate models cannot outperform a random walk forecast and that the forward rate is not an optimal predictor of the spot rate. However, there is evidence that the term structure of forward premia contains valuable information for forecasting...

This paper analyzes whether and how central banks can use currency options to lower exchange rate volatility and maintain (implicit) target zones in foreign exchange markets. It argues that selling rather than buying options will result in market makers dynamically hedging their long option...

We propose a new explanation for the forward-premium and the delayed-overshooting puzzles. Both puzzles arise from a systematic under-reaction of short-term interest rate forecasts to current innovations. Accordingly, the forward premium is always a biased predictor of future depreciation; the...

Interest rate expectations are essential for exchange rate determination. Using a unique Survey data set on interest rate forecasts from 1986 to 1995 for G7 countries, we find that interest rate shocks were significantly more persistent in sample than expected by the market. This is consistent...

This paper develops a stochastic equilibrium model of an open economy incorporating speculation in the forward exchange market. The model is used to examine two issues. The first is the role of speculation in stabilizing the economy against stochastic disturbances. Much risk averse speculation...

One of the world's largest financial markets is the “global foreign exchange market,” with average daily trades in trillions of dollars. The forex market is the backbone of international trade, global investing, and is critical to support imports and exports. The exchange rate is one of the...

This paper extends the Krugman target zone model by including a realignment mechanism. Various properties of that realignment mechanism are discussed. The movement of the exchange rate is governed both by a Wiener process on fundamental and by a Poisson jump process with endogenous realignment...

Monetary and financial policies that lower the cost of credit for working capital in a currency outside of its country can provide the impetus for that currency to be used in international trade. This paper shows this in theory, by exploring the complemen-tarity in the currency used for...

Regressions of ex post changes in floating exchange rates on appropriate interest differentials typically imply that the high- interest rate currency tends to appreciate, the `forward discount puzzle.' Using data from the European Monetary System, we find that a large part of the forward...

In this paper we illustrate and explain the relationship between interest rates (or forward rates) and discount factors. We present the forward-discount factor relationship, which is popular and widely used in financial markets for yield curve construction, and derive the exact formulae using a...

Non-deliverable forward (NDF) markets in many Asian emerging market currencies are large, rapidly growing, and often exceed onshore markets in transaction volume. NDFs tend to price significant depreciation during market stress episodes including COVID-19. Spillovers from NDFs to onshore markets...

The forward premium is a notoriously poor predictor of exchange rate movements. This failure must reflect deviations from risk neutrality and/or rational expectations. In addition, a mechanism is needed that generates the appropriate correlation between the forward premium and shocks arising...

This paper examines the cross-dynamics of volatility term structures implied by foreign exchange options. The data used in the empirical analysis consist of daily observations of implied volatilities for OTC options on the euro, Japanese yen, British pound, Swiss franc, and Canadian dollar,...

This paper considers a multivariate t version of the Gaussian dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) model proposed by Engle (2002), and suggests the use of devolatized returns computed as returns standardized by realized volatilities rather than by GARCH type volatility estimates. The t-DCC...

We introduce a new weekly database of spot and forward US-UK exchange rates as well as interest rates to examine the integration of forward exchange markets during the classical gold standard period (1880-1914). Using threshold autoregressions (TAR), we estimate the transactions cost band of...

The hypothesis that the forward rate is an unbiased predictor of the future spot rate has been consistently rejected in recent empirical studies. This paper examines several sources of measurement error and misspecification that might induce biases in such studies. Although previous inferences...

Survey data on a broad cross section of 17 currencies are used to determine whether the forward discount moves primarily in response to changes in expectations of depreciation, or in the risk premium. We find that changes in expected depreciation are quantitatively significant. However we also...