This paper examines “fat tails puzzle” in the financial markets. Ignoring the rate of convergence in Central Limit Theorem (CLT) provides the “fat tail” uncertainty. In this paper, we provide a review of the empirical results obtained “fat tails puzzle” using innovative method of...

We study the treatment effect of grade retention using a panel of French junior high-school students, taking unobserved heterogeneity and the endogeneity of grade repetitions into account. We specify a multistage model of human-capital accumulation with a finite number of types representing...

Diese Dissertation ist in drei Kapitel sowie eine Einleitung unterteilt. Die Einleitung führt in das Themengebiet ein, fasst die Kapitel zusammen und zeigt deren Zusammenhänge auf. Jedes Kapitel beschäftigt sich mit der Analyse von Finanzzeitreihen. Dabei wird insbesondere den „stylized...

Everyone remembers a plot where a disadvantaged individual facing the prospect of failure, spends more effort, turns around the game and wins unexpectedly. Most tournament theories, however, predict the opposite pattern and see the disadvantaged agent investing less effort. We show that 'turn...

We study the treatment effect of grade retention, using a panel of French junior highschool students, taking unobserved heterogeneity and the endogeneity of grade repetitions into account. We specify a multi-stage model of human-capital accumulation with a finite number of types representing...

In this paper, expected utility, defined by a Taylor series expansion around expected wealth, is maximized. The coefficient of relative risk aversion (CRRA) that is commensurate with a 100% investment in the risky asset is simulated. The following parameters are varied: the riskless return, the...

We derive a Gaussian approximation result for the maximum of a sum of high dimensional random vectors. Specifically, we establish conditions under which the distribution of the maximum is approximated by that of the maximum of a sum of the Gaussian random vectors with the same covariance...

We derive a central limit theorem for the maximum of a sum of high dimensional random vectors. More precisely, we establish condi- tions under which the distribution of the maximum is approximated by the maximum of a sum of the Gaussian random vectors with the same covariance matrices as the...

We develop a new direct approach to approximating suprema of general empirical processes by a sequence of suprema of Gaussian processes, without taking the route of approximating empirical processes themselves in the sup-norm. We prove an abstract approximation theorem that is applicable to a...

This paper extends the Bayesian Model Averaging framework to panel data models where the lagged dependent variable as well as endogenous variables appear as regressors. We propose a Limited Information Bayesian Model Averaging (LIBMA) methodology and then test it using simulated data. Simulation...

In this paper we derive the asymptotic behaviour of the survival function of both random sum and random maximum of log-normal risks. As for the case of finite sum and maximum investigated in Asmussen and Rojas-Nandayapa (2008) also for the more general setup of random sums and random maximum the...

We obtain two characterizations of the Gaussian distribution on a Hilbert space from samples of random size.

We derive forecast confidence bands using a Global Projection Model covering the United States, the euro area, and Japan. In the model, the price of oil is a stochastic process, interest rates have a zero floor, and bank lending tightening affects the United States. To calculate confidence...

This paper presents the design aspects and probabilistic approach for the generation reliability evaluation of an alternative resource: municipal waste water (MWW) based micro-hydro power plant (MHPP). Annual and daily flow duration curves have been obtained for design, installation,...

There is strong evidence that interest rates and bond yield movements exhibit both stochastic volatility and unanticipated jumps. The presence of frequent jumps makes it natural to ask whether there is a premium for jump risk embedded in observed bond yields. This paper identifies a class of...

In this paper, we construct an intermediate distribution linking the Gaussian and the Cauchy distribution. We provide the probability density function and the corresponding characteristic function of the intermediate distribution. Because many kinds of distributions have no moment, we introduce...