The majority of the New Keynesian DSGE literature assumes that the macroeconomic effects of monetary policy can be satisfactorily described by an interest rate rule without addressing the details of the money supply. We investigate whether this approach remains valid in the presence of inside...

This paper studies the causes of movements in inflation and output in Switzerland over 160 years between 1855 and 2015. Aggregate supply and demand shocks are identified in a structural VAR and their evolution and effect on prices and output is discussed. Shocks to the Swiss economy have...

I provide evidence of substantial hysteresis (i.e., a situation in which temporary shocks have longrun effects) from monetary shocks on two sources of endogenous growth; human capital and technological adoption. This contribution is the first to test for the presence of this phenomenon in direct...

The nature of the relation between stock returns and the three monetary variables of interest rates (bond yields), inflation and money supply growth, while oft studied, is one that remains unclear. We argue that the nature of the relation changes over time, and this variation is largely driven...

The quantity equation is a well-established, theoretic, long-run concept that has been criticized for a variety of reasons, i.e., that no precise statements about causality or dynamics between money growth and inflation can be inferred from its components. These shortcomings can be tackled by...

This paper characterizes the relationship between monetary aggregates, inflation and economic activity in Switzerland since the mid-1970s. Traditional forms of money demand and quantity theory relationships have remained stable over the whole period. Broad money excesses over trend values,...

The paper analyses the reasons for Japan's persistently low inflation since the bursting of the Japanese bubble economy (low inflation conundrum). It is shown that Japan experienced a structural break from a high-growth period with relatively high inflation to a low-growth period with...

We study the impacts of the 2009 monetary stimulus and its interaction with infrastructure spending on credit allocation. We develop a two-stage estimation approach and apply it to China's loan-level data that covers all sectors in the economy. We find that except for the manufacturing sector,...

The purpose of this paper is to apply the theory of cycle of money to the cases of Belarus. Prior works have determined the economic characteristics of the case of Latvia, Serbia, and Bulgaria, according to the concept of the theory of cycle of money. The index of the cycle of money suggests how...

This paper conducts a theoretical comparison of the potential effectiveness, in terms of money stock controllability, of interest rate and reserve instruments. Whereas previous studies have been basically static, the present analysis is carried out in the context of a dynamic macroeconomic model...

New France, like most European colonies in the New World, suffered from a persistent shortage of metal coins. As Quebec’s imports were limited by French mercantilist policies, their standards of living were constrained by their ability to export a few primary products (mostly fur, cod, timber...

A number of studies find significant temporal variation in the interest-rate response to money announcement surprises. An unresolved question, however, is whether the response changes immediately as different policy regimes are adopted, or whether the change is gradual reflecting the...

In this study, we compare simple sum and Divisia monetary aggregates under a Taylor rule formation for the U.S. economy to figure out if there exists any improvement in the estimation of inflation and output when a theoretically convincing definition of money i.e., Divisia money, is utilized....

Standard explanations of the bivariate correlation of money and income attribute this correlation to an inability of agents to discriminate in the short run between real and nominal sources of price shocks. This paper is an empirical comparison of the standard explanation with two alternatives:...

Traditionally, the effects of monetary policy actions on output are thought to be transmitted via monetary or credit channels. Real business cycle theory, by contrast, highlights the role of real price changes as a source of revisions in spending and production decisions. Motivated by the desire...

Using a series of examples, we review the various ways in which a monetary policy characterized by the Taylor rule can inject volatility into the economy. In the examples, a particular modification to the Taylor rule can reduce or even entirely eliminate the problems. Under the modified policy,...

Researchers, using the survey conducted by Money Market Services, Inc., have found that the anticipated component in the Federal Reserve's weekly money supply announcement is negatively correlated with the post- announcement change in market yields. We prove that eliminating a (downward) bias in...

The response of short-term interest rates to weekly money announcements since the Federal Reserve's change in operating procedures on October 6, 1979, is examined in this paper. The results indicate that the response increased significantly since October 1979, and that it varies nonlinearly...

Post-1945 Europe had many of the traits observed today in Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union: price controls, shortages, black markets and a monetary overhang. The policy response in most countries was monetary reform - - the deliberate immobilization of liquid assets and in many instances an...

This paper reexamines both monthly and quarterly U.S. postwar data to investigate if the observed comovements between money, real interestrates, prices and output are compatible with the money-real interest-output link suggested by existing monetary theories of output, which include both...

Previous models of the demand for money are either inconsistent with contemporaneous adjustment of the price level to expected changes in the nominal money supply or imply implausible fluctuations in interest rates in response to unexpected changes in the nominal money supply. This paper...

Standard models of aggregate demand treat money and credit asymmetrically; money is given a special status, while loans, bonds, and other debt instruments are lumped together in a "bond market" and suppressed by Walras' Law. This makes bank liabilities central to the monetary transmission...

The puzzle of underissuance of national bank notes disappears when one disaggregates data, takes account of regulatory limits, and considers differences in opportunity costs. Banks with poor lending opportunities maximized their issuance. Other banks chose to limit issuance. Redemption costs do...

The Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England’s reliance on faulty indicators has led to suboptimal policy decisions and masked what is actually happening in the economy. The introduction of quantitative easing (QE) in 2009 has made the money supply relevant again and made a discussion...

The national accounts include the Fed's payments to the Treasury as a component of corporate taxes. These payments constituted 22% of reported corporate profits taxes in 1981. This paper discusses alternative concepts of inflationary finance. Measures for these concepts are reported for the...

This paper reviews the main issues that supply shocks pose for the conduct of monetary policy. A simple version of the Gordon-Phelps model shows that the necessary condition for actual real GNP to be maintained at its equilibrium level in the wake of a supply shock is for the change innominal...

Canada, like many countries, has recently experienced difficulties in achieving money growth stability and money supply independence. Based on the buffer-stock view of money-holding as well as the credit market approach to the money supply, this paper suggests that the problems have arisen from...

Stock and Watson's widely noted finding that money has statistically significant marginal predictive power with respect to real output (as measured by industrial production), even in a sample extending through 1985 and even in the presence of a short-term interest rate, is not robust to two...

The lack of developed financial markets and well-functioning transmission channels assigns monetary aggregates in emerging economies the potential role of nominal anchor, intermediate target, or informational variable for monetary policy. The effectiveness of this approach relies crucially on...

The response of interest rates to money announcement surprises is examined both theoretically and empirically in this paper. In the theoretical models developed, not only changes in operating procedures, but also reserve requirement systems, are found to potentially affect the response....

With the rapid proliferation of mobile telephony and the establishment of an IT-enabled payment and settlement system, Bangladesh, nowadays, is experiencing a meteoric rise in the usage of mobile financial services (MFS). As more and more people are opting to use this service, a huge number of...

This paper presents a new set of empirical regularities on the link between interest rates, money supply announcements and monetary base announcements. Among the main findings reported are: (i) unexpected increases in the announced monetary base have a significantly positive effect on interest...

Although government transfer is a well-known fiscal variable, it can significantly influence the overall supply of money in the economy. Beneficiaries of government transfer program will consume a portion of it while the rest is saved and these initial savings will then be amplified inside the...

Using optimal control theory and a vector autoregressive representation of the relationship between money and interest rates, one can derive a feedback control procedure which defines the best possible tradeoff between interest rate volatility and money supply fluctuations and which could be...

Evidence on the relationship between unanticipated money and interestrates has been provided by two types of studies. First, several researchers have investigated the relationship using quarterly data. Second, a number of researchers have examined the effect of money announcement surprises on...

I show that a determinate, finite price level can be achieved in an economy with no monetary frictions, and no commodity standard or other explicit redemption commitment. I make one small modification to a standard cash in advance model: I reopen the security market at the end of the day. With...

This paper examines the structure of expectations of the weekly money supply announcement in the late 1970s. The data used are from a weekly telephone survey of money market participants. The rationality and structure of expectations are explored with the data organized in three ways:the mean...

This paper examines the ability of a simple stylized general equilibrium model that incorporates nominal wage rigidity to explain the magnitude and persistence of the Great Depression in the United States. The impulses to our analysis are money supply shocks. The Taylor contracts model is...

Previous authors have reached puzzlingly different conclusions about the usefulness of money for forecasting real output based on closely related regression-based tests. An examination of this and additional new evidence reveals that innovations in M1 have statistically significant marginal...

This paper examines the impact of the money supply and inflation rate announcements on interest rates. Survey data on expectations of the money supply and consumer and producer price indexes are used to distinguish anticipated and unanticipated components of the announcements. This distinction...