This chapter reveals how the deterministic nonlinear Lordon - Goodwin model (M-1) endogenously generates cycles of absolute and relative over-accumulation of capital parallel in important aspects to the Marx industrial cycle. This model hyperbolizes the acuteness of accumulation crises. By...

This paper describes the key features of the Moroccan business cycles during the period 1980:q1-2012:q1. In particular, this paper identifies the chronologies in classical and growth cycles (expansion and contraction phases and full cycles in real gross domestic product). Using the modified BB...

Business cycles are highly irregular fluctuations in economic activity. This article attempts to determine whether there are some properties of business cycles that can make them look more regular. This is done by analysing business cycle dynamics, especially by employing and adjusting to...

Business cycles are highly irregular fluctuations in economic activity. This article attempts to determine whether there are some properties of business cycles that can make them look more regular. This is done by analysing business cycle dynamics, especially by employing and adjusting to...

Автор фиксирует в последние 60 лет теснейшую взаимозависимость смены экономических циклов Жугляра и политических процессов в США. Нарушение синхронности смены...

Автор обращает внимание на теснейшую зависимость в последние 60 лет смены экономических циклов Жугляра и политических процессов в США. В статье показано, что...

Conventional wisdom predicts that changes in macroeconomic conditions significantly affect income inequality. In this paper we hypothesize that the way in which macroeconomic conditions affect inequality depends on how these conditions influence the constituents of total inequality: inequality...

We pursue a two-fold objective in this paper. First, we try to describe comprehensively the behaviour of sectoral growth cycles in Turkish manufacturing by using several statistical measures and to analyse the co-movement between them via correlation and peak-through analysis. One of the...

Business cycle indicators are used to assess the economic situation of countries or regions. They are closely watched by the public, but are not easy to interpret. Does a current movement of the indicator signal a turning point or not? With the help of Markov Switching Models movements of...

The Ifo Business Climate is the most important indicator for the business cycle in Germany. In 1993 the connection between the two components of the business climate - business situation and business expectations - was graphically portrayed by Ifo in a 4-quadrant scheme: the Ifo Business Cycle...

The Ifo Business Climate is the most important indicator for the business cycle in Germany. In 1993 the connection between the two components of the business climate – business situation and business expectations – was graphically portrayed by Ifo in a 4-quadrant scheme: the Ifo Business...

Business cycle indicators are used to assess the economic situation of countries or regions. They are closely watched by the public, but are not easy to interpret. Does a current movement of the indicator signal a turning point or not? With the help of Markov Switching Models movements of...

One definition of the natural rate is the (time-varying) steady state equilibrium rate. Then the gap is the difference between the actual and natural rates, or the forecastable movement. Although modern business cycle theories study deviation cycles (cycles in the gap), the NBER business cycle...

Business cycles are highly irregular fluctuations in economic activity. This article attempts to determine whether there are some properties of business cycles that can make them look more regular. This is done by analysing business cycle dynamics, especially by employing and adjusting to...

As recent experience suggests, the most significant economic fluctuations are those that combine real and financial factors. This paper works out a simple model that couples a version of Goodwin׳s (1967) growth cycle model of real fluctuations with insights drawn from a model of financial...

This paper compares Kaleckian and Harrodian models of accumulation. The simplicity of the canonical Kaleckian model is appealing but more complex Harrodian specifications are preferable from a behavioral perspective. The local instability of Harrodian-inspired specifications, moreover, offers a...

This paper extends Goodwin’s growth cycle model by assuming both differential savings propensities and disequilibrium in the goods market. It is shown that both modifications entail an increase in the dimensionality of the dynamical system of the model. By applying the existence part of the...

This paper compares Kaleckian and Harrodian models of accumulation. The sim- plicity of the canonical Kaleckian model is appealing but more complex Harrodian specifications are preferable from a behavioral perspective. The local instability of Harrodian-inspired specifications, moreover, offers...

The highest rates of growth of labor productivity in the Soviet Union were observed not in the 1930s (3% annually), but in the 1950s (6%). The TFP growth rates by decades increased from 0.6% annually in the 1930s to 2.8% in the 1950s and then fell monotonously becoming negative in the 1980s. The...

This article describes the years of Goodwin’s ‘third life’ at the University of Siena, stressing in particular his main contributions to economic theory, the evolution in his political and philosophical ideas and his love of art. First, after a brief description of his arrival in Siena and...

This paper attempts to carry out a study of relative importance of anticipated and unanticipated external crises for the dynamics of economic growth. The estimations are carried out within a two equation system capturing the possibility of a common shock to external crises and growth. The effect...

We consider the seasonal distribution of turning points in the post-war growth cycles of sixteen economies. Using nonparametric tests for distributions on the circle, we cannot reject the hypothesis of a uniform distribution for the turning points for most of the countries. In the case of...

In this paper I address the following questions. - Has the business cycle become longer and shallower? And why? - How stabilizing is monetary policy. In answering these questions I summarize recent research undertaken by Adrian Pagan and myself that formalizes the procedures developed by Burns...

Recent events suggest that the death of the business cycle has been exaggerated; the issue of how one learns about and monitors the business cycle remains centre stage. Advent of the Euro and the potential for tensions when sovereign nations subsume their monetary policy into a single response...

We pursue a two-fold objective in this paper. First, we try to describe comprehensively the behaviour of sectoral growth cycles in Turkish manufacturing by using several statistical measures and to analyse the co-movement between them via correlation and peak-through analysis. One of the...

A business cycle is recognized as a growth cycle in a continuously growing economy such as Korea. This paper suggests reasonable dating rules for the reference date of a business cycle using various measures of a growth cycle. These measures are a cyclical component of the coincident composite...

Though with a very long standing history of a century the growth cycles have once again been in the limelight of thinking of modern economists of 1960 and that of 1995. However, the 21st century growth cycles have been in the focus for policy makers of both developed and developing countries...