This paper focuses on the estimation and testing of multiple breaks that occur at unknown dates in multivariate long memory time series regression models, allowing for fractional cointegration. A likelihood-ratio based approach for estimating the breaks in the parameters and in the covariance of...

Many economic panel and dynamic models, such as rational behavior and Euler equations, imply that the parameters of interest are identified by conditional moment restrictions. We introduce a novel inference method without any prior information about which conditioning instruments are weak or...

Bayesian decisions are observationally identical to decisions with judgment. Decisions with judgment test whether a judgmental decision is optimal and, in case of rejection, move to the closest boundary of the confidence interval, for a given confidence level. The resulting decisions condition...

We consider fully modified least squares estimation for systems of cointegrating polynomial regressions, i. e., systems of regressions that include deterministic variables, integrated processes and their powers as regressors. The errors are allowed to be correlated across equations, over time...

We propose the double robust Lagrange multiplier (DRLM) statistic for testing hypotheses specified on the minimizer of the population continuous updating objective function. The (bounding) χ2 limiting distribution of the DRLM statistic is robust to both misspecification and weak identification,...

This paper focuses on the estimation and testing of multiple breaks that occur at unknown dates in multivariate long memory time series regression models, allowing for fractional cointegration. A likelihood-ratio based approach for estimating the breaks in the parameters and in the covariance of...

To address a key issue in functional time series analysis on testing the randomness of an observed series, we propose an IID test for functional time series by generalizing the Brock-Dechert-Scheinkman (BDS) test, which is commonly used for testing nonlinear independence. Similarly to the BDS...

Spatial unit roots can lead to spurious regression results. We present a brief overview of the methods developed in Müller and Watson (2024) to test for and correct for spatial unit roots. We also introduce a suite of Stata commands (-spur-) implementing these techniques. Our commands exactly...

Textbook theory predicts that t-ratios decline towards zero in regressions when there is increasing collinearity between two independent variables. This article shows that this rarely happens if the two variables are endogenous, and coefficients increase greatly with more collinearity. The...

Because finite sample inference for inequality indices based on asymptotic methods or the standard bootstrap does not perform well, Davidson and Flachaire (Journal of Econometrics, 2007) and Cowell and Flachaire (Journal of Econometrics, 2007) proposed inference based on semiparametric methods...

All parameters in structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) models are locally identified when the structural shocks are independent and follow non-Gaussian distributions. Unfortunately, standard inference methods that exploit such features of the data for identification fail to yield correct...

Women are underrepresented in academia in general and economics in particular. I introduce a test to detect an under-researched form of hiring bias: implicit quotas. I derive a test under the null hypothesis of gender-blind hiring that requires no additional information about individual hires...

Many economic panel and dynamic models, such as rational behavior and Euler equations, imply that the parameters of interest are identified by conditional moment restrictions. We introduce a novel inference method without any prior information about which conditioning instruments are weak or...

Researchers may want to know whether an observed statistical relationship is either meaningfully negative, meaningfully positive, or small enough to be considered practically equivalent to zero. Such a question can not be addressed with standard null hypothesis significance testing, nor with...

This report is part of the 2-year exploratory research project MITICA (MonItoring Transport Infrastructures with Connected and Automated vehicles). It presents the experimental loading testing undertaken on the Reinforced Concrete (RC) platform that represents the full-scale bridge-like...

Purpose - This study aims to find suitable replacements for hypothesis testing and variable-importance measures. Design/methodology/approach - This study explores under-used predictive methods. Findings - The study's hypothesis testing can and should be replaced by predictive methods. It is the...

We present a statistical test for the long-term calibration in rating systems that can deal with overlapping time windows as required by the guidelines of the European Banking Authority (EBA), which apply to major financial institutions in the European System. In accordance with regulation,...

In mid-2016, all journals of the American Economic Association (AEA) stopped including significance stars in their regression tables. This policy aimed to reduce the emphasis on statistical significance and shift focus toward the broader economic importance of research findings. This study...

We implement a quantitative empirical test of the fiscal theory of the price level (FTPL) model via indirect inference, comparing it to a standard New Keynesian model. The FTPL alternative creates a serious instability problem because it triggers a 'doom loop'in which inflation pushes up...