This study employs OLS, GARCH and EGARCH regression models to test the expiration-day effects of index stock futures on market returns, volatility and trading volume for the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange (HOSE). Data used in this study is from a daily return series of the VN30-Index for the period...

In this study, we examine the effect of introducing SSE 50ETF index options trading on stock market volatility using a panel data evaluation approach. Based on the cross-sectional dependence among international stock indices and macroeconomic indicators, we estimate the counterfactual volatility...

We examine the effects of limited investor attention on stock returns by using Google search volume index to measure investor attention. We also investigate whether national culture and market development have any role in this relationship. We find that the impact of investor attention on stock...

This study compares the performances of neural network and Black-Scholes models in pricing BIST30 (Borsa Istanbul) index call and put options with different volatility forecasting approaches. Since the volatility is the key parameter in pricing options, GARCH (Generalized Autoregressive...

Existing models of option returns neglect the distribution of expected underlying asset volatility. An ensemble of six common GARCH models affords estimates of the moments of the physical—rather than the risk-neutral—distribution of anticipated—instead of historical—volatility, as well...

We use a novel definition of tail risk for option pricing purposes, based on the concept of almost stochastic dominance (ASD) in order to examine empirical “puzzles” documented in several high profile studies of the market for S&P 500 index options. We find that with one exception these...

This study tests the new Valulytics Equal Weighted Community Bank Index (the Valulyics Index) against the five Fisher tests and the three Lo tests of a valid index. Then, we compare the index with the five best known U. S. bank indexes exploring the effect of market capitalization weighting...

This paper investigates the dynamic changes in the price discovery ability and volatility spillover characteristics in the Chinese stock index futures market as trading rules were loosened step by step. The result shows that as trading restrictions were relaxed, the price discovery ability of...

To forecast future option prices, autoregressive models of implied volatility derived from observed option prices are commonly employed [see Day and Lewis (1990), and Harvey and Whaley (1992)]. In contrast, the ARCH model proposed by Engle (1982) models the dynamic behavior in volatility,...

When stock prices deviate from their fundamental values due to excess demand, investors anticipate reversals and trade in the options market to exploit the temporary misvaluation. This leads to options’ predictability of stock returns beyond the well-known informed trading channel. Using S&P...

We identify latent demand and supply in the market for index options using a VAR with sign restrictions. The time series of latent demand conveys important economic insights that are not evident from the analysis of equilibrium quantities. Using observable proxies for risk, we find that demand...

Prior theory suggests a positive relation between volatility and market depth, while past empirical research finds contrasting results. This paper examines the relation between the volatility and the limit order book depth in commodity and foreign exchange futures markets during a turbulent time...

The generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic model (GARCH) is used to estimate volatility for Nifty Index futures on day trades. The purpose is to find out if a contemporaneous or causal relation exists between volatility volume and open interest for Nifty Index futures traded on...

This paper examines the relative contribution of regular and e-mini futures market to price discovery of EUR/USD futures contracts on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), using intraday data in 2010.The relative contribution to price discovery is estimated using the information share approach...

It is known that the National Pension Service (NPS) of Korea contributes to the market stability because it tends to pursue the negative feedback trading strategy in the Korean stock market. While many studies deal with institutional investors’ trading in the financial derivatives market, the...

This study investigated the impact of the introduction of the VN30-Index futures contract on the daily returns anomaly for the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange (HOSE). Daily returns of the VN30-Index for the period 6 February 2012 through 31 December 2019 are used in this study to ascertain the new...

This paper adopts a new approach called DECO-FIAPARCH model for estimating the optimal hedge ratio (HR) in Turkish Stock Index Futures market in the presence of asymmetry and long memory. The study covers the period from May 3, 2005 until April 4, 2019, total of 3,508 daily observations. The...

This study investigates the role of oil futures price information on forecasting the US stock market volatility using the HAR framework. In-sample results indicate that oil futures intraday information is helpful to increase the predictability. Moreover, compared to the benchmark model, the...

In this paper, we examine the performance of certain short option trading strategies on the S&P500 with backtesting based on historical option price data. Some of these strategies show significant outperformance in relation to the S&P500 index. We seek to explain this outperformance by modeling...

Using an option pricing framework, we extend Stock and Wise (1990)’s and Fraser, Jennings, and King (2000)’s into a new model that shows how different forms of price indexing alter the calculation of the present values of Social Security benefits. We find that, under the current method (wage...

We test the Index options market efficiency by means of a statistical arbitrage strategy, i.e. pairs trading. Using data on five Stock Indexes of the Euro Area, we first identify any potential option mispricing based on deviations from the long-run relationship linking their implied...

We propose a novel factor model for option returns. Option exposures are estimated nonparametrically and factor risk premia can vary nonlinearly with states. The model is estimated using regressions, with minimal assumptions on factor and option return dynamics. Using index options, we...

We develop two models for index futures arbitrage that take the financing constraints faced by real-world arbitrageurs into account. Our models predict that the price of an index futures contract and the value of its underlying index should deviate further from their theoretical cost-of-carry...

The Chicago Board Options Exchange concurrently listed European-style and American-style options on the Standard and Poor's 500 Index from April 2, 1986 through June 20, 1986. This unique time period allows for a direct measurement of the early-exercise premium in American-style index options....

This paper proposes of new index of forward looking absolute deviation extracted from option prices. The new index, named ADIX, is model-free and easy to compute using at-the-money straddle prices. An empirical analysis using S&P 500 options data for the time period 1996-2019 reveals that ADIX...

Many ways exist to measure and model financial asset volatility. In principle, as the frequency of the data increases, the quality of forecasts should improve. Yet, there is no consensus about a true' or best' measure of volatility. In this paper we propose to jointly consider absolute daily...

The newly launched water futures market faces a serious illiquidity problem with scarce trading volume. We examine the causes of the illiquidity based on the futures contract design literature and empirical analysis of spot water markets in the western United States. The primary cause of...

The optimal portfolio of a utility-maximizing investor trading in the S&P 500 index and cash, subject to proportional transaction costs, becomes stochastically dominated when overlaid with a zero-net-cost portfolio of S&P 500 options bought at their ask and written at their bid price in most...

We apply the directed acyclic graph and spillover index models and find significant evidence of both implied volatility contagion and spillover. First, the global implied volatility smiles exhibit strong regional clustering. The European and American options markets form a separate contemporary...

We find public directional order imbalance of in-the-money options on S&P500 (“DOI”) negatively predicts market returns over a monthly horizon, up until three months, after controlling for established sentiment measures and market return predictors. Stocks in the High-tech industry are the...

We document a significantly positive response of delta-hedged option positions on companies entering or leaving the S&P 500 index. Our findings (i) hold for both call and put options, (ii) are robust to placebo- and risk-adjustments, and (iii) are stronger for companies that are likely subject...

How do financial markets switch from states of optimism to pessimism and vice versa? Given that a financial market is currently stable, what is the probability that it will become unstable and crash? We answer those questions in the context of a natural experiment with risk sources of...

The rise of stock indexing has raised concerns that index investing impedes arbitrage and degrades price discovery. This paper uses Russell’s reconstitution to identify the causal effect of index investing on information arbitrage and price discovery. While index investing has no discernible...