Search Results - subject_exact:"Inflation expectations"

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A new model of trend inflation using disaggregates, survey expectations, and uncertainty

Tallman, Ellis W.; Zaman, Saeed - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015619060

When global energy costs travel : domestic trade network channel to inflation expectations

Chronopoulos, Dimitris K.; Gül, Selçuk; Kazdal, Abdullah - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015568326

Upward bias in inflation perceptions: persistence, drivers, implications

Andre, Peter; Schaffranka, Claudia; Weber, Michael - 2026 - Manuscript completed in February 2026

This paper examines the persistent upward bias in euro area households' inflation perceptions and expectations, even when realized inflation is near the ECB's target. It discusses behavioural and informational drivers of this bias, its implications for consumption, wage setting, and monetary...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015607760

Inflation targeting and the dynamics of inflation risk premia in South Africa's bond market

Allison, Chloë; Wet, Theuns de - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015624793

Households' inflation expectations and consumption in macroeconomic models : a negative real income channel

Mašek, Frantisek - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015625682

How food prices shape inflation expectations and the monetary policy response

Bonciani, Dario; Masolo, Riccardo M.; Sarpietro, Silvia - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015637873

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How food prices shape inflation expectations and the monetary policy response

Bonciani, Dario; Masolo, Riccardo; Sarpietro, Silvia - 2024

Book / Working Paper

Monetary policy according to households : perceptions, reactions, and channels

Grigoli, Francesco; Sandri, Damiano; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; … - 2026

This paper studies how households perceive the transmission of monetary policy and how these perceptions affect their decisions. Using a large-scale survey of over 25,000 U.S. households combined with randomized information treatments, we measure how households expect changes in the federal...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015638512

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Monetary policy according to households : perceptions, reactions, and channels

Grigoli, Francesco; Sandri, Damiano; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; … - 2026

Book / Working Paper

The association between time discounting, hyperbolic discounting, and inflation expectations : evidence from large-scale survey data

Ogura, Kota; Yamaguchi, Manaka; Aizawa, Sakiho; Khan, … - 2026

Inflation expectations play a central role in monetary policy effectiveness, yet relatively little is known about how individual behavioral traits shape expectation formation. This study examines whether time discounting and hyperbolic discounting, key dimensions of intertemporal preferences,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015639017

Inflation expectations : the impact of priming in survey questions

Odendaal, Hanjo; Reid, Monique; Siklos, Pierre L. - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015639511

The role of inflation expectations in the path to 3% : understanding expectations formation and calibrating the models

Foresto, Anis; Reid, Monique; Steinbach, Rudi; … - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015639521

The role of inflation perceptions in consumer inflation expectations : evidence from the euro area

Bussière, Matthieu; Gilbert, Johanna; Grishchenko, Olesya - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015653252

Wage-price links and inflation expectations : time-varying evidence from the US and UK

Korkos, Ioannis - 2026

Links between wages, prices, and inflation expectations are examined for the United States (US) and United Kingdom (UK) using time-varying Granger causality tests applied to monthly (US 1983-2025; UK 2001-2025) and quarterly (US 1967-2025; UK 1985-2025) data. Pass-through is episodic and sector-specific...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015653680

Forecasting inflation with artificial intelligence : a comparative analysis

Agostina Gonzalez, Daniela - 2026

Inflationary dynamics underscore the need for advanced methodologies to enhance forecasting accuracy. This paper explores the potential of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in generating short-term inflation forecasts for Argentina during the 2023-2024 period. The methodology leverages OpenAI's...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015653867

Echoes of hyperinflation : the link between past exposure and formation of expectations

Akgündüz, Yusuf Emre; Cilasun, Seyit Mümin; Deryol, Ahmet - 2026

This paper studies how lifetime inflation exposure shapes individuals' inflation expectations, perceptions, and financial behavior. Using a large individual-level dataset from Türkiye spanning 2014 to 2024, combined with detailed measures of past inflation experiences, we show that individuals...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015632407

Anchoring inflation expectations : a teaching treatment and its persistence through the 2025 German federal election

Gockel, Christine; Strohsal, Till - 2026

We study how inflation expectations can be anchored through different forms of communication and whether such anchoring survives political change. Using a two-wave panel RCT around the 2025 German federal election, we show that providing the ECB's target and projections lowers expectations by...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015635198

Oil and petrol prices, inflation perceptions, and inflation expectations : evidence from New Zealand

Vatsa, Puneet - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015636658

Inflation expectations in Japan : forecast revision and forecast trend

Zhai, Weiyang; Yoshida, Yūshi - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015573566

Facts or feelings? : the role of relatable narratives in shaping inflation expectations

Ludolph, Melina; Giang Hong Nghiem; Tonzer, Lena - 2026

We examine whether combining factual information on inflation levels and forecasts with a narrative can persistently shape consumers’ inflation expectations. In a preregistered randomized controlled trial with a representative sample of 3,000 German consumers, participants received either...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015662959

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Facts or feelings? : the role of relatable narratives in shaping inflation expectations

Ludolph, Melina; Giang Hong Nghiem; Tonzer, Lena - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Pandemic and war inflation : lessons from the international experience

Lipínska, Anna; Martínez-García, Enrique; … - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015546311

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Pandemic and war inflation : lessons from the international experience

Lipínska, Anna; Martínez-García, Enrique; … - 2025

Book / Working Paper

The long-term effects of inflation on inflation expectations

Braggion, Fabio; Meyerinck, Felix von; Schaub, Nic; … - 2025

We study the long-term effects of inflation surges on inflation expectations using Germany as a laboratory. Households living in areas with higher local inflation during the hyperinflation of the 1920s expect higher inflation today, even after controlling for known determinants of historical...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015203041

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The long-term effects of inflation on inflation expectations

Braggion, Fabio; Meyerinck, Felix von; Schaub, Nic; … - 2024

Book / Working Paper

The Long-term Effects of Inflation on Inflation Expectations

Braggion, Fabio; Meyerinck, Felix von; Schaub, Nic; … - 2024

Book / Working Paper

The Long-term Effects of Inflation on Inflation Expectations

Braggion, Fabio; Meyerinck, Felix von; Schaub, Nic; … - 2023

Book / Working Paper

Nonlinear estimation of a New Keynesian model with endogenous inflation de-anchoring

Hecker, Dominik; Wolters, Maik H. - 2025

We estimate a New Keynesian model that allows endogenous transitions between a target equilibrium, with inflation fluctuating around the central bank's target and interest rates typically positive, and a low-inflation equilibrium, where the effective lower bound binds and de-anchored...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015548895

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Nonlinear estimation of a New Keynesian model with endogenous inflation de-anchoring

Hecker, Dominik; Wolters, Maik H. - 2025

Book / Working Paper

Media tone : the role of news and social media on heterogeneous inflation expectations

Heikkinen, Joni; Heimonen, Kari - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015374189

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Media tone : the role of news and social media on heterogeneous inflation expectations

Heikkinen, Joni; Heimonen, Kari - 2024 - This version: 04/09/2024

Edition: This version: 04/09/2024

Book / Working Paper

Do inflation expectations become more anchored during a disinflation episode? : evidence for euro area firms

Baumann, Ursel; Ferrando, Annalisa; Georgarakos, Dimitris; … - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015210555

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Do Inflation Expectations Become More Anchored During a Disinflation Episode? Evidence for Euro Area Firms

Baumann, Ursel; Ferrando, Annalisa; Georgarakos, Dimitris; … - 2025

Book / Working Paper

War-associated geopolitical risks and uncertainty : implications for real wages

Nasir, Muhammad Ali; Spencer, David A. - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015338007

Heterogeneous attention to inflation and monetary policy

Shabalina, Ekaterina; Tzaawa-Krenzler, Mary - 2025

We study how heterogeneous attention to inflation across households affects the transmission of monetary policy. Using household-level surveys for the US and Australia, we first show that households' attention to inflation varies across income levels. Specifically, we find that high-income...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015340149

Insights from indian households' qualitative inflation expectations

Roshin Paul P; Ghosh, Taniya - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015175830

Homeownership and attention to inflation : evidence from information treatments

Piccolo, Jessica; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy - 2025

This paper examines how homeownership status shapes attention to inflation and its impact on durable consumption. Using randomized controlled trials on U.S. households (2021-2023), we document systematic heterogeneity in responses to inflation-related information. Homeowners exhibit greater...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015329563

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Homeownership and attention to inflation : evidence from information treatments

Piccolo, Jessica; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy - 2025

Book / Working Paper

Homeownership and Attention to Inflation : Evidence from Information Treatments

Piccolo, Jessica; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy - 2025

Book / Working Paper

Homeownership and attention to inflation : evidence from information treatments

Piccolo, Jessica; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy - 2025

Book / Working Paper

Inflation since the pandemic : lessons and challenges

Hajdini, Ina; Shapiro, Adam Hale; Smith, Andrew Lee; … - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015471199

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Inflation since the pandemic : lessons and challenges

Hajdini, Ina; Shapiro, Adam Hale; Smith, Andrew Lee; … - 2025

Book / Working Paper

Televised inflation : measuring TV news coverage and its effect on household expectations

Çekin, Semih Emre; Polattimur, Hamza - 2025

This paper introduces a novel TV news index specifically designed to track coverage of rising inflation across major US TV channels: ABC, CBS, CNN, and Fox News. The index is generated daily and aggregated into a monthly measure. Using this index, we analyze the impact of TV news on inflation...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015473068

What can we learn from the distributions of inflation expectations across European households?

Kourtellos, Andros; Statheas, Christos Antonios; … - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015474043

Attention to food prices and the upward bias in inflation expectations

Kusenda, Ondrej; Marenčák, Michal - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015449554

Uncertainty and rounding in expectation surveys

Dovern, Jonas; Glas, Alexander - 2025

This paper examines whether the rounding of survey responses in the case of probabilistic question formats is related to expectation uncertainty. Using data from a survey on macroeconomic expectations of private households in Germany, we analyze self-reported reasons for rounding probabilistic...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015451424

Whose inflation expectations forecast best? : alternatives based on survey and financial data

Reid, Monique; Siklos, Pierre L. - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015406272

Perceiving central bank communications through press coverage

García, Pilar; Torres, Diego - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015406816

Inflation, Expectations and Monetary Policy : What Have We Learned and to What End?

Coibion, Olivier; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy - 2025

We review recent research and experiences linking inflation and expectations, emphasizing what has been learned since 2020. One clear lesson is that the inflation expectations of most economic agents have been and remain unanchored. The unanchored nature of inflation expectations, in combination...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015409889

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Inflation, expectations and monetary policy : what have we learned and to what end?

Coibion, Olivier; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy - 2025

Book / Working Paper

Inflation, expectations and monetary policy : what have we learned and to what end?

Coibion, Olivier; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy - 2025

Book / Working Paper

Gasoline price expectations as a transmission channel for gasoline price shocks

Anderl, Christina; Caporale, Guglielmo Maria - 2025

This paper uses data on 5-year gasoline price expectations from the US Michigan Survey of Consumers to investigate their role as a transmission channel for gasoline price shocks. Specifically, a Structural VAR model is estimated to carry out counterfactual analysis which shows that gasoline...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015409524

A KISS for central bank communication in times of high inflation

Hoffmann, Mathias; Mönch, Emanuel; Pavlova, Lora; … - 2025 - This draft: March 24, 2025

During the post-pandemic inflation surge, many central banks actively used communication about the inflation outlook as a policy tool to limit spillovers from realized to expected inflation. We present novel survey evidence showing that the ECB's guidance about the projected inflation path...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015410642

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A KISS for central bank communication in times of high inflation

Hoffmann, Mathias; Mönch, Emanuel; Pavlova, Lora; … - 2025 - This draft: June 3, 2025

Edition: This draft: June 3, 2025

Book / Working Paper

A kiss for central bank communication in times of high inflation

Hoffmann, Mathias; Mönch, Emanuel; Pavlova, Lora; … - 2025

Book / Working Paper

Do natural disasters and the announcement of ENSO events have an impact on market-based measures of inflation expectations?

Bermudez-Cespedes, Juan Pablo; Melo-Velandia, Luis Fernando - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015413140

How heterogeneous are the inflation expectations?

Moučka, Jakub; Němec, Daniel - 2025

This paper investigates the heterogeneity of inflation expectations among households, firms, and professionals across 14 economies. Using Bayesian model averaging and panel data regressions, we identify key determinants of inflation expectations, assess their stability over time, and evaluate...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015437353

How stable are inflation expectations in the euro area? : evidence from the euro-area financial markets

Grishchenko, Olesya V.; Moraux, Franck; Pakulyak, Olga - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015438029

The dynamics of long-run inflation expectations : a market-based perspective

Cole, Anna; Kozlowski, Julian; Martorana, Joseph - 2025

This paper analyzes market-based probability distributions for long-run inflation expectations derived from inflation derivatives. We construct forward-looking distributions for five-year-ahead inflation to assess the likelihood that inflation will fall above, below, or near the Federal...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015439104

A quasi-experiment in monetary policy : the impact of unexpected easing on inflation expectations and firm behavior

Akarsu, Okan; Aktuğ, Emrehan; Aldan, Altan; Seven, Ünal - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015460162

Navigating regimes : does knowledge of current inflation matter for households?

Flaccadoro, Marco; Rondinelli, Concetta; Villa, Stefania - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015461645

Where do they care? : the ECB in the media and inflation expectations

Larsen, Vegard Høghaug; Maffei-Faccioli, Nicolò; … - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015444583

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Where do they care? : the ECB in the media and inflation expectations

Larsen, Vegard Høghaug; Maffei-Faccioli, Nicolò; … - 2023

Book / Working Paper

Where do they care? : the ECB in the media and inflation expectations

Larsen, Vegard Høghaug; Maffei-Faccioli, Nicolò; … - 2023

Book / Working Paper

How do supply shocks to inflation generalize? : evidence from the pandemic era in Europe

Acharya, Viral V.; Crosignani, Matteo; Eisert, Tim; … - 2025

We document how the interaction of supply chain pressures, elevated household inflation expectations, and firm pricing power contributed to the pandemic-era surge in consumer price inflation in the euro area. Initially, supply chain disruptions raised inflation, particularly in manufacturing,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015445074

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How Do Supply Shocks to Inflation Generalize? Evidence from the Pandemic Era in Europe

Acharya, Viral V.; Crosignani, Matteo; Eisert, Tim; … - 2023

Book / Working Paper

How do supply shocks to inflation generalize? : evidence from the pandemic era in Europe

Acharya, Viral V.; Crosignani, Matteo; Eisert, Tim; … - 2023

Book / Working Paper

Consumer wealth and price expectations

Dias, Rodrigo S.; Sharma, Eesha; Fitzsimons, Gavan J. - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015445546

Speaking of inflation : the influence of fed speeches on expectations

Granziera, Eleonora; Larsen, Vegard Høghaug; … - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015484437

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Speaking of inflation : the influence of fed speeches on expectations

Granziera, Eleonora; Larsen, Vegard Høghaug; … - 2025

Book / Working Paper

Speaking of inflation : the influence of fed speeches on expectations

Granziera, Eleonora; Larsen, Vegard Høghaug; … - 2025

Book / Working Paper

Identification of key consumer categories of goods and services as factors in the formation of perceived inflation

Akpanov, A. - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015562246

Inflation expectations and price-setting decisions : insights from the housing market

Guglielminetti, Elisa; Loberto, Michele - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015562314

From tweets to transactions : high-frequency inflation expectations, consumption, and stock returns

Born, Benjamin; Lamersdorf, Nora; Schuster, Jana-Lynn; … - 2025

Using modern natural language processing, we construct a high-frequency inflation expectations index from German-language tweets. This index closely tracks realized inflation and aligns even more closely with household survey expectations. It also improves short-run forecasts relative to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015563809

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From tweets to transactions : high-frequency inflation expectations, consumption, and stock returns

Born, Benjamin; Lamersdorf, Nora; Schuster, Jana-Lynn; … - 2025

Book / Working Paper