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Wage dynamics, unemployment, and inflation: enhancing 4gm semi-structural model

Ramos-Veloza, Mario A.; Naranjo-Saldarriaga, Sara; … - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015617555

Oil, gas, pandemics, and war : the drivers of inflation

Corrado, Luisa; Grassi, Stefano; Paolillo, Aldo; … - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015655580

The price of delay : supply chain disruptions and pricing dynamics

Baslandze, Salome; Fuchs, Simon - 2026 - Original version: August 2025, this version: March 2026

We study how supply chain disruptions shape consumer prices. We develop a simple model showing how disruptions that cause delivery delays affect pricing through product availability, beyond standard cost pass-through, and extend it to a setting with strategic interactions across firms....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015609841

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The price of delay : supply chain disruptions and pricing dynamics

Baslandze, Salome; Fuchs, Simon - 2025

Book / Working Paper

The price of delay : supply chain disruptions and pricing dynamics

Baslandze, Salomé; Fuchs, Simon - 2025

Book / Working Paper

The price of delay : supply chain disruptions and pricing dynamics

Baslandze, Salomé; Fuchs, Simon - 2025

Book / Working Paper

Beating the "pros" with a semi-structural model of their own inflation forecasts

Alves, Sergio Afonso Lago; Areosa, Waldyr Dutra; … - 2026 - Last updated: March 10, 2026

Professional inflation forecasts contain valuable information but exhibit information frictions. We extract improved forecasts by explicitly modeling these frictions using the US Survey of Professional Forecasters data, and find that forecast rigidity increases systematically with horizon,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015612295

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Beating the "pros" with a semi-structural model of their own inflation forecasts

Alves, Sergio Afonso Lago; Areosa, Waldyr Dutra; … - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Inflation and human capital investment decisions

Rodríguez-Planas, Núria; Westergren, Kerstin - 2026

This study investigates the impact of inflation on human capital investment decisions. Using a specially designed survey we estimate the causal effect of recent price level increases on the graduation plans of over 1,200 U.S. university students. We find that inflation caused over half of the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015616386

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Inflation and human capital investment decisions

Rodríguez-Planas, Núria; Westergren, Kerstin - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Inferring prices from quantities

Argente, David; Hsieh, Chang-tai; Lee, Munseob - 2026

Measuring aggregate inflation is subject to two opposing biases: unobserved quality and variety growth, and the use of incorrect weights when new varieties are misclassified. We show that it is possible to measure an aggregate price index free of these biases when we have a subset of products...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015616668

Index methodology for transaction data in the Dutch CPI

Chessa, Antonio G. - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015595483

State dependence of monetary policy during global supply chain disruptions

Bai, Xiwen; Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús; Li, Yiliang; … - 2026

We study how global supply chain disruptions affect monetary policy transmission. Post-pandemic evidence indicates surging transportation costs, goods-market imbalances, and rising prices. We develop a model in which logistical bottlenecks (upstream slack coexisting with downstream shortages)...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015596593

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State dependence of monetary policy during global supply chain disruptions

Bai, Xiwen; Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús; Li, Yiliang; … - 2026

Book / Working Paper

State dependence of monetary policy during global supply chain disruptions

Bai, Xiwen; Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús; Li, Yiliang; … - 2026

Book / Working Paper

State dependence of monetary policy during global supply chain disruptions

Bai, Xiwen; Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús; Li, Yiliang; … - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Climate change, climate policy, and the macroeconomy

Ploeg, Frederick van der; Rezai, Armon - 2026

A review is presented of the macroeconomics of climate change and policy. The review starts with a tractable workhorse model of the macroeconomics of climate and carbon pricing. It then discusses extensions to multiple countries. A discussion of the effects of macroeconomic and climate...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015603793

The complex trilogy of shadow economy, inflation, and economic growth

Rdhaounia, Narimen; El Weriemmi, Malek; Kouni, Mohamed - 2026

This article investigates the dynamic interrelationships between the shadow economy, inflation, and economic growth in 15 countries of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region over the period 1991-2017. The study employs a simultaneous equations framework estimated through the Three-Stage...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015604708

Attention to the macroeconomy

Link, Sebastian; Peichl, Andreas; Pfäuti, Oliver; … - 2026 - Original version: December 2023, this version: January 2026

We measure which economic topics are top of mind using quarterly German household and firm panels from 2020 to 2024, a period that spans the post-pandemic inflation surge and the subsequent disinflation. With these data, we study the determinants and consequences of having inflation top of mind....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015605200

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Attention to the macroeconomy

Link, Sebastian; Peichl, Andreas; Roth, Christopher; … - 2023

Book / Working Paper

Attention to the macroeconomy

Link, Sebastian; Peichl, Andreas; Roth, Christopher; … - 2023

Book / Working Paper

Attention to the macroeconomy

Link, Sebastian; Peichl, Andreas; Roth, Christopher; … - 2023

Book / Working Paper

Attention to the macroeconomy

Link, Sebastian; Peichl, Andreas; Roth, Christopher; … - 2023

Book / Working Paper

Economic implications for Europe of a potential reintegration of Iran into the world economy

Ghodsi, Mahdi; Felbermayr, Gabriel; Kariem, Heider; … - 2026

How would fundamental political change in Iran, leading to a democratic system with a free and rulesbased economic order, affect Germany and the EU economically? In the event of change, sanctions could be scaled back, allowing Iran to rejoin the global economy. This study quantifies the economic...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015605932

Aging and the price level : irreversible capital, demographic transitions, and the shifting phillips curve

Deng, Yongheng; Inoue, Tomoo; Nishimura, Kiyohiko; … - 2026 - This Draft: March 26, 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015620220

Quantifying macroeconomic spillovers : the role of trade linkages in propagating conflict shocks

Eydam, Ulrich; Leupold, Florian - 2026

Geopolitical conflicts generate macroeconomic spillovers that extend beyond directly affected countries through trade and commodity linkages. This paper quantifies these effects for Germany, France, Italy, and Spain using a monthly Trade-Related Conflict Exposure (TRCE) index for 2009–2023...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015620636

New evidence on consumer price rigidity in Poland

Macias, Paweł; Stelmasiak, Damian; Szafranek, Karol; … - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015625694

Impact of macro-economic factors on CEO compensation : evidence from JSE-listed banks

Marozva, Rudo Rachel; Maloa, Frans - 2026

The debate over CEO compensation persists despite extensive efforts by academics and technocrats to understand its determinants. Most research has focused on how firm-specific characteristics and CEO-specific traits influence CEO compensation. However, the results have been contradictory,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015626013

Inflation inattention and the consumption gap

Di Bartolomeo, Giovanni; Ferlaino, Francesco; Serpieri, … - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015638015

When wording changes what we find : the impact of inflation expectations on spending

Assenza, Tiziana; Huber, Stefanie J.; Mogilevskaja, Anna; … - 2026

We use a randomized experiment in the Bundesbank Online Panel-Households (n ≈ 3, 900) to show that the estimated link between inflation expectations and household consumption flips sign depending on survey wording. This finding reconciles prior contradictory results and has direct implications...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015639077

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When wording changes what we find : the impact of inflation expectations on spending

Assenza, Tiziana; Huber, Stefanie J.; Mogilevskaja, Anna; … - 2025

Book / Working Paper

Geopolitical risk in the euro area : measurement and transmission

Bondarenko, Yevheniia; Kang, Nayeon; Lewis, Vivien; … - 2026

Geopolitical risk is a major concern for the euro area, yet widely used measures largely reflect a US perspective. We introduce a geopolitical risk indicator tailored to the euro area using local European news sources. Shocks to this index have significant recessionary and inflationary...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015639117

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Geopolitical risk in the euro area : measurement and transmission

Bondarenko, Yevheniia; Kang, Nayeon; Lewis, Vivien; … - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Geopolitical risk in the euro area : measurement and transmission

Bondarenko, Yevheniia; Kang, Nayeon; Lewis, Vivien; … - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Monetary policy in the Euro Area, when Philips curves ... are curves

Ascari, Guido; Carrier, Alexandre; Gasteiger, Emanuele; … - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015640484

Private canaries : the value of private-sector data for U.S. monetary policy making

Feroli, Michael; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Greig, Fiona; … - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015640945

Supply chain uncertainty, energy prices, and inflation

Merendino, Alfonso; Monacelli, Tommaso - 2026

Using U.S. and Euro area data, we document that (i) the pass-through of energy prices to inflation is state-dependent - stronger when supply chain uncertainty is elevated - and (ii) in such states, energy prices become more informative about logistical conditions. We develop a model in which...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015641450

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Supply chain uncertainty, energy prices and inflation

Merendino, Alfonso; Monacelli, Tommaso - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Strategically delayed price adjustment in oligopoly and aggregated price dynamics

Pasche, Markus - 2026

It is shown that staggered and sticky price adjustment is possible without ad hoc frictions, and without suspending full price flexibility. I consider an oligopoly with n price-setting firms which can strategically choose the timing of price decisions and thus the stage in a n-stage Stackelberg...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015644068

Macroeconomic policies for AI

Fornaro, Luca; Wolf, Martin - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015664940

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Macroeconomic policies for AI

Fornaro, Luca; Wolf, Martin - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Macroeconomic policies for AI

Fornaro, Luca; Wolf, Martin - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Learning about inflation and exchange rates

Beuermann, Diether W.; Bottan, Nicolas L.; Hoffmann, Bridget - 2026

We study how expert forecasts about inflation and nominal exchange rates affect households' inflation perceptions, exchange rate beliefs, and later durable-goods holdings in a small open economy. Using a randomized information experiment in Suriname, we provide households with expert forecasts...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015656704

Reflections on aspects of macroeconomic policies in the spirit of Geoff Harcourt

Arestis, Philip; Sawyer, Malcolm C. - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015651676

Expectations, credibility, and the persistence of currency aubstitution

Alawin, Mohammad - 2026

This study examines why currency substitution proves so difficult to reverse, even after countries succeed in stabilizing inflation. Focusing on Bolivia, Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey-economies that endured severe inflationary episodes before implementing stabilization programs-the paper asks a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015652131

Climate change and India's inflation, fiscal space and growth

SenGupta, Swapnanil; Atal, Aakansha - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015653146

The impact of the 2026 Iran war on U.S. inflation : a scenario analysis

Kilian, Lutz; Plante, Michael; Richter, Alexander W.; … - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015653629

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The impact of the 2026 Iran war on U.S. inflation : a scenario analysis

Kilian, Lutz; Plante, Michael; Richter, Alexander W.; … - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Internal and external determinants of inflation in GCC countries : evidence from a panel PMG-ARDL model

Alsabhan, Talal H. - 2026

The inflation rate has shown an upward trend globally, specifically after COVID-19, and the economies of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) are not an exception. A heightened inflation in the modern globalized world is indeed undesirable due to its enormous adverse consequences on all sectors of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015633192

Artificial intelligence and monetary policy : a framework and perspective on cyclical transmission, structural transition, and financial stability

Lenzu, Simone - 2026

I develop a framework analyzing how artificial intelligence (AI) reshapes monetary policy through three interrelated channels: cyclical transmission, structural transition, and financial stability. In the short run, AI can alter inflation dynamics by changing how supply and demand disturbances...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015633708

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Artificial intelligence and monetary policy : a framework and perspective on cyclical transmission, structural transition, and financial stability

Lenzu, Simone - 2026

Book / Working Paper

The missing link between inflation and macroeconomic fundamentals : evidence from Türkiye

Buyun, Burak; Fidan, İlayda İsabetli - 2026

This study investigates the structural relationship between inflation and key macroeconomic fundamentals in Türkiye, an emerging economy characterized by persistently high and divergent inflation dynamics. Using monthly data for the 2011-2024 period, we apply the Kapetanios, Shin, and Snell...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015633819

Determinants of tax ratio and reform efforts in Southeast Asia : evidence from a Toda-Yamamoto causality approach

Yossinomita, Yossinomita; Hartanti, Rina; Saputri, … - 2026

This study analyzes tax reform and its determining factors affecting the tax ratio in Indonesia, Malaysia, India, and Singapore by using the Toda-Yamamoto causality approach. The findings reveal five significant causal relationships in Indonesia, including the impact of inflation (I) on the tax...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015636803

Sticky prices for inflationary economies : a tractable linear approximation to menu cost models with trend inflation

Adams, Jonathan - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015636939

The emergence of wage-price spirals : implications for monetary policy response

Boymatova, Mushtariy - 2026

This paper examines the interaction between nominal wage dynamics and consumer price inflation in Uzbekistan, with the aim of assessing the risk of wage-price spirals in an emerging market context. Using quarterly data covering the period from 2007 to 2025, the analysis investigates whether wage...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015637319

Drivers of wage and employment growth in recent years : a supply and demand decomposition

Dvorkin, Maximiliano A.; Marks, Cassie - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015667301

The option value of money

Isch-Taudien, Remo; Monnet, Cyril - 2026

An intrinsically useless asset can have value not because it serves as a medium of exchange today, but because it could in the future- this is the option value of money. We characterize the private and social option values of cryptocurrency in a model with a possibly selfinterested government...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015667290

Measuring cost of living inequality during an inflation surge

Chen, Tao; Levell, Peter; O'Connell, Martin - 2026

We study the welfare cost of inflation during the 2021–2023 UK inflation surge using household scanner data on fast-moving consumer goods. We develop and implement a non-homothetic, index number-based decomposition of inflation-driven welfare changes into exposure, substitution, and income...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015668140

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Measuring cost of living inequality during an inflation surge

Chen, Tao; Levell, Peter; O'Connell, Martin - 2025

Book / Working Paper

Labor productivity, effort and the euro-area business cycle

Lewis, Vivien; Villa, Stefania - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015668211

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Labor productivity, effort and the Euro Area business cycle

Lewis, Vivien; Villa, Stefania - 2023

Book / Working Paper

Labor productivity, effort and the euro area business cycle

Lewis, Vivien; Villa, Stefania; Wolters, Maik H. - 2019

Book / Working Paper

Macro-imbalances and bank lending: A case of Kenya's banking industry

Agung, Raphael; Muli, Anthony; Ndwiga, David; Njoroge, … - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015397846

ECB monetary policy strategy 2025: A strategic view on the economic and inflation environment in the euro area

2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015432209

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ECB monetary policy strategy 2025: a strategic view on the economic and inflation environment in the euro area

2025

Book / Working Paper

Monitoring von Preisen, Kosten und Margen in landwirtschaftlichen Wertschöpfungsketten : Konzept, Struktur und Interpretation

Margarian, Anne - 2025

Der vorliegende Bericht zum Thünen-Monitoring von Preisen, Kosten und Margen in landwirtschaftlichen Wertschöpfungsketten diskutiert die methodischen und konzeptionellen Hintergründe des Monitorings und bietet Interpretationshilfen. Er ermöglicht eine informierte Nutzung des umfangreichen...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015526784

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Monitoring von Preisen, Kosten und Margen in landwirtschaftlichen Wertschöpfungsketten: Konzept, Struktur und Interpretation

Margarian, Anne - 2025

Book / Working Paper

Fueling economies through credit and industrial activities : a way of financing sustainable economic development in Brazil

Batrancea, Larissa M.; Nichita, Anca; Tulai, Horia; … - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015618155

Pandemic and war inflation : lessons from the international experience

Lipínska, Anna; Martínez-García, Enrique; … - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015546311

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Pandemic and war inflation : lessons from the international experience

Lipínska, Anna; Martínez-García, Enrique; … - 2025

Book / Working Paper

The GATT vs Inflation : Tokyo Drift

Greenland, Andrew; Lake, James; Lopresti, John - 2025

This paper demonstrates that ignoring the source of variation in tariff levels yields misleading conclusions regarding the effects of tariff changes. Specifically, we show that changes in the ad valorem equivalent (AVE) tariff are insufficient to quantify the magnitude or sign of the effect of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015508575

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The GATT vs Inflation : tokyo drift

Greenland, Andrew; Lake, James; Lopresti, John - 2025

Book / Working Paper

Inflation, fiscal policy, and inequality : the impact of the post-pandemic price surge and fiscal measures on European households

Amores, Antonio F.; Basso, Henrique S.; Bischl, … - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015168665

The long-term effects of inflation on inflation expectations

Braggion, Fabio; Meyerinck, Felix von; Schaub, Nic; … - 2025

We study the long-term effects of inflation surges on inflation expectations using Germany as a laboratory. Households living in areas with higher local inflation during the hyperinflation of the 1920s expect higher inflation today, even after controlling for known determinants of historical...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015203041

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The long-term effects of inflation on inflation expectations

Braggion, Fabio; Meyerinck, Felix von; Schaub, Nic; … - 2024

Book / Working Paper

The Long-term Effects of Inflation on Inflation Expectations

Braggion, Fabio; Meyerinck, Felix von; Schaub, Nic; … - 2023

Book / Working Paper

Effects of energy prices on food consumer price inflation

Moessner, Richhild - 2025

This paper studies the effects of country-specific energy prices on food consumer price inflation (CPI) within a cross-country Phillips curve framework. It considers a panel of 36 OECD member and candidate economies using quarterly data from the start of 1994 to the end of 2021. We find that...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015204019

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Effects of Energy Prices on Food Consumer Price Inflation

Moessner, Richhild - 2025

Book / Working Paper

The granular origins of inflation

Alvarez-Blaser, Santiago; Auer, Raphael A.; Lein, Sarah; … - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015206736

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The granular origins of inflation

Alvarez-Blaser, Santiago; Auer, Raphael A.; Lein, Sarah; … - 2025

Book / Working Paper

The Granular Origins of Inflation

Alvarez-Blaser, Santiago; Auer, Raphael A.; Lein, Sarah; … - 2025

Book / Working Paper

Rising rates, rising risks? : Unpacking the U.S. stock market response to inflation and Fed Hikes (2015-2025)

Abid, Ihsen - 2025

This study investigates the dynamic relationship between key macroeconomic indicators, specifically inflation (CPI), the Federal Funds Rate, GDP growth, unemployment, and money supply, and U.S, stock market returns, represented by the S&P 500 index, over the period January 2015 to June 2025, The...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015548920