Like many newer EU Free Trade Agreements, the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) includes commitments concerning labour and social standards and environment and climate policy under the title the 'Level Playing Field'. This title includes non-regression provisions, which prohibit reducing or...

This paper develops a dynamic real-options model of tariff deterrence in which the exporting country, though subject to the importing country's market power, assumes the role of leader in a Stackelberg framework under uncertainty by acting preventively to dissuade the importer from imposing a...

This paper examines the trade dimensions of the policy instruments employed by the United States to secure critical minerals supply chains. Drawing on policy statements, executive orders, tariff schedules, and six bilateral critical minerals agreements announced in 2025, it assesses how US trade...

Export controls play a prominent role in the ongoing technological race between the United States and China. This study investigates the short-term direct effects of US export controls on US exports as well as the indirect effects of these measures on the exports of third countries. We collect...

This study is based on real options theory and uses a sample of Chinese listed companies from 2000 to 2016 to investigate the dynamic process and mechanisms by which trade policy uncertainty affects the upgrading of enterprises within the global value chain (GVC). The article finds that trade...

How should a developing country such as South Africa respond to the USA's "Liberation Day" Tariffs of April 2025 and subsequent shocks? Combining the GTAP-Dynamic (GDyn) Computable General Equilibrium model with an expanded Decision Support Model (DSM), we simulate five policy response scenarios...

This paper leverages Sri Lanka's 2021 chemical fertilizer import ban to quantify the costs of restricted fertilizer access for agriculture, trade, and welfare. Leveraging trade and production data, satellite-based yield estimates, and event studies, we document sharp declines in fertilizer...

This paper investigates the implications of trade policy uncertainty (TPU) in the United States for current account balance (CAB) dynamics, given renewed interest in pursuing trade policy measures to address persistent current account deficits. We examine whether TPU, a distinct source of policy...

Global growth is projected at 3.3 percent for 2026 and 3.2 percent for 2027, revised slightly up since the October 2025 World Economic Outlook. Technology investment, fiscal and monetary support, accommodative financial conditions, and private sector adaptability offset trade policy shifts....

• The EU-India FTA generates mutual economic gains of 0.12-0.13% of GDP for both partners, with bilateral trade surging by 41-65%. • Since the 50 percentage points tariffs imposed by the US cost India 1.6% of GDP, the EU-India FTA provides a crucial hedge while the EU demonstrates commitment...

The EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) came into force on 1 October 2023, introducing reporting requirements for importers of covered products and, from 2026, an obligation to pay a fee on the carbon content of imported goods. This paper uses indices of ad valorem tariffs to assess the...

• The 2025 US tariffs are an own goal: American importers and consumers bear nearly the entire cost. Foreign exporters absorb only about 4% of the tariff burden - the remaining 96% is passed through to US buyers. • Using shipment-level data covering over 25 million transactions valued at...

We use global tariffs to reveal the weights that nations implicitly place on the welfare of their trading partners relative to their own. Our estimated welfare weights suggest that formal and informal rules of the world trading system make countries internalize the impact of their policies onto...

This Policy Brief evaluates the trade policy of Donald Trump during the first year of his second presidential term. The administration pursued a strongly protectionist agenda, implementing new tariffs on a wide range of products and trading partners, including long‑standing allies such as the...

The objective of this study is to explore the time-varying shock transmission mechanism between aggregated financial stress indices (FSIs) of developed economies (the U.S., the U.K., the European Union (EU) and Japan) and the emerging economy of China. We employ a novel Time-Varying Parameter...

Agriculture provides the raw materials needed to feed and clothe a global population of 8.3 billion, as well as the basic materials required for many other purposes. However, this comes at the cost of polluting the air, soil, water and natural habitats, and damaging biodiversity. The costs of...

Quantitative international trade models are essential tools for policy analysis. This paper provides guidance for quantifying and solving trade models for policy simulations using the popular programming languages Python, Julia, Matlab, and R. The solution follows simple linear steps and can...

The fourth review of the trade policies and practices of Papua New Guinea takes place on 11 and 13 February 2026. The basis for the review is a report by the WTO Secretariat and a report by the Government of Papua New Guinea.

The fourth review of the trade policies and practices of The Gambia takes place on 4 and 6 February 2026. The basis for the review is a report by the WTO Secretariat and a report by the Government of The Gambia.

China's resurgent trade surplus has revived concern in the United States and Europe, but its development consequences for low and middle income (LMIC) countries remain underappreciated. This paper documents a "China Squeeze": the compression of industrialization space available to poorer...

We use global tariffs to reveal the weights that nations implicitly place on the welfare of their trading partners relative to their own. Our estimated welfare weights suggest that formal and informal rules of the world trading system make countries internalize the impact of their policies onto...