Purpose - In this paper we examine the validity of the J-curve hypothesis in four Southeast Asian economies (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand) over the 1980-2017 period. Design/methodology/approach - We employ the linear autoregressive distributed lags (ARDL) model that captures...

Startups face a trade-off between short-term profitability versus long-term growth where investors tolerate prolonged financial losses. We present a new theory and empirical evidence about the existence and shape of so-called J-curves. The theory predicts that investors facing better exit...

This study examines the impact of exchange rate on trade flow in Nigeria from 1986 to 2021. The study utilises linear and nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL and NARDL) models to test the J-Curve hypothesis and the Marshall-Lerner condition in Nigeria. The study found symmetric...

This study examines the J-Curve phenomenon of a developing country for the case of Ghana and its major trade partners: Switzerland (Swiss) and China. Using quarterly bilateral data from Q1-1995 to Q4-2018 to investigate the impact of currency depreciation on the bilateral trade balance in the...

This paper aims to empirically examine the drivers of the bilateral balance of the trade model for the Georgian-Chinese economy from 2000 to 2020 and the influence of the Georgia-China free trade agreement on the Georgian-Chinese balance of trade. The Error Correction Model (ECM) of the ARDL was...

This paper examines asymmetries in the J-curve effects of real exchange rate on Kenya's trade balance by using panel data for bilateral trade with 30 trading partners. The data covers the period from 2006q1 to 2018q4 and the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimation technique, under both the linear and...

Exchange Rate (ER) stability is an important factor in determining the economic position of an economy. Speculation in the exchange rate shows the poor performance of a country. A change in the exchange rate may affect the inflation as well as interest rate in the country and Pakistan in not an...

This paper 'goes back to basics' in empirical analysis of the J-Curve. First, we document strong violations in the distributional assumptions that underlie nearly all previous work on this issue. Second, we employ distribution-free, non-parametric statistical tests to characterize the data and...

The literature of trade balance and exchange rate devaluation have enjoyed enormous reviews with different decays ranging from aggregation bias, specification bias to the exclusion of effects of structural breaks on bilateral trade flows. This motivates this study to investigate the J-curve...

This paper examines asymmetries in the J-curve effects of real exchange rate on Kenya’s trade balance by using panel data for bilateral trade with 30 trading partners. The data covers the period from 2006q1 to 2018q4 and the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimation technique, under both the linear...

Based on an empirical gravity model of sectoral bilateral trade, we uncover three features of bilateral trade balances. First, the difficulty of gravity models in fitting the observed level of bilateral balances is likely due to the presence of unobservable bilateral trade costs. Second, the...

This paper examines the relationship between exchange rate and trade balance in determining whether the J-Curve phenomenon hold in the short and long-run for Sierra Leone during the period 2002Q2 – 2019Q4. The econometric technique commenced with an assessment of unit root to ascertain the...

Chapter 1: Reforms, state building and the legacy -- Chapter 2: The Soviet Union – the twilight -- Chapter 3: 1991-2003: early Post-Soviet Transition and the Revolution of Roses -- Chapter 4: Georgia’s J-curve. How to rebound? -- Chapter 5: Russia -- Chapter 6: Public leadership -- Chapter...

African countries have over the years experienced persistent current account deficits. The role of asymmetries in explaining the response of trade balance to exchange rate movement has not received adequate attention as linear models dominate extant empirical literature. In this paper, we...

A limited number of studies have tested the J-Curve phenomenon using bilateral trade data between the United States and its major trading partners. In this paper, we test the J-Curve hypothesis by using quarterly bilateral data over the 1973-98 period between Japan and its nine major trading...

There is a common belief that currency depreciation worsens the trade balance in the short run and improves it in the long run resulting in the so called J-curve phenomenon. Early studies employed aggregate data and provided mixed results. Recent studies, however, have employed disaggregated...

This study researches the effects of changes in the exchange rate on the trade balance after the transition to the floating exchange rate in the Turkish economy. For this purpose, ARDL and ECM models have been developed by using quarterly data from 2003 through 2018. The starting point of the...