Der Krieg in der Ukraine schafft neue und verschärft bestehende Anpassungslasten für die gesamte Volkswirtschaft. Im folgenden Beitrag werden Orientierungspunkte für die ökonomischen Auswirkungen des Krieges auf die deutsche Wirtschaft aufgezeigt. Diese Effekte hängen von den politischen...

Die Ergebnisse der IW-Konjunkturumfrage vom Frühjahr 2022 liefern eine Einschätzung gemäß der zum Befragungszeitpunkt relevanten und erwartbaren Rahmenbedingungen für unternehmerisches Handeln. Deutliche Veränderungen dieses geoökonomischen Umfeldes - etwa durch vollständig ausfallende...

We construct several measures for the global financial cycle using dynamic factor models and data for 25 advanced and emerging countries over 1980-2019. Our results suggest that global cycles in asset prices and capital flows are highly similar and synchronized, especially during crisis...

This paper develops a novel and tractable empirical approach to estimate the cycle in schooling participation decisions, which we denominate the schooling cycle. The estimation procedure is based on unobserved components time series models that decompose higher education enrollment rates into a...

Die Wirtschaftsleistung im Euroraum hat zuletzt erstmals wieder ihr Vor-Corona-Niveau erreicht. Die konsumbezogene Mobilität war ungeachtet der hohen Infektionszahlen seit Jahresbeginn nur wenig beeinträchtigt, und Frühindikatoren zur Zuversicht von Unternehmen und Verbrauchern zeigten bis...

This paper empirically verifies that the types of capital adjustment costs serve as an important mechanism in relation to investment decision- making after confirming that the investment dispersion of Korean firms is pro-cyclical and can affect busin ess cycles. Specifically, it is found through...

The subprime crisis was quite damaging for hedge funds. Using the local projection method (Jordà 2004, 2005, 2009), we forecast the dynamic responses of the betas of hedge fund strategies to macroeconomic and financial shocks-especially volatility and illiquidity shocks-over the subprime crisis...

During the Great Recession, unemployment increased substantially across several euro area countries, with wages exhibiting a muted response. As low skilled workers lose their jobs first during a recession, the remaining employed workers result in a relatively more skilled employment pool. This...

We conduct a Monte Carlo experiment using an ad-hoc New Keynesian model and a tractable agent-based model to generate artificial credit cycle episodes. We show that fluctuations in the implicit measures of the natural rate of interest obtained using a conventional trivariate Kalman filter on...

We re-examine the Systemic Cycles of Accumulation (SCA) of Arrighi (2010) and Arrighi and Silver (1999) which provide a framework for the analysis of the cyclical patterns of geographical expansion of trade and production and the related shifts of hegemonic power within the world capitalist...

This paper studies how government transfers respond to changes in local economic activity that emerge during recessions. Local labor markets that experience greater employment losses during recessions face persistent relative decreases in earnings per capita. However, these areas also experience...

Wealth is distributed more unevenly than income, and one contributing factor might be that richer households earn higher portfolio returns. I uncover one channel that causes portfolio returns to be increasing in wealth: Poorer households consistently buy risky assets in booms-when expected...

In this paper, we examine the impact of globalization and digitalization on the Phillips curve in a sample of 18 advanced economies over two decades. Using industry-level data from the World and EU KLEMS databases, we first estimate country-industry-specific Phillips curves for each decade by...

This paper analyses how labour market heterogeneity affects unemployment, productivity and business cycle dynamics that are relevant for monetary policy. The model matches remarkably well the short and long run dynamics of skilled and unskilled workers. Skill mismatch and skill-specific labour...

The investment fund sector has expanded dramatically since the crisis of 2008-2009. As the sector grows, so do the implications of its risk-taking for the wider financial system and real economy. This paper provides empirical evidence for the existence of widespread risk-taking incentives in the...

This documentation concisely describes the dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium model that the ifo Institute currently uses for simulations and business-cycle analysis. The model consists of three countries and contains a wide range of rigidities. The model is regularly estimated by quarterly...

In this paper, I explore how optimal aggregate dynamics can be shaped by the presence of moral hazard in unemployment insurance. I also analyze the optimal provision of unemployment insurance and the implications for the amount of cross-sectional heterogeneity. The economy that I consider embeds...

Real exchange rate (RER) misalignment, which is the deviation between the actual real exchange rate from its equilibrium, occurs frequently among developing economies. Studies have shown that RER misalignment may have negative economic implications, such as a reduction in economic growth,...

This paper provides direct evidence of the importance of firm attention to macro-economic dynamics. We construct a text-based measure of firm attention to macro-economic news and document firm attention that is polarized and countercyclical. Differences in attention lead to asymmetric responses...

Empirical evidence suggests that considerable differentials in inflation rates exist across households. This paper investigates how central banks should react to household inflation heterogeneity in a tractable New Keynesian model. We include two households that differ in their consumer price...

This study on explaining aggregated recovery rates (ARR) is based on the largest existing loss and recovery database for commercial loans provided by Global Credit Data, which includes defaults from 5 continents and over 120 countries. The dependence of monthly ARR from bank loans on various...

There has been a substantial body of work modeling the co-movement of employment, vacancies, and output over the business cycle. This paper builds on this literature, and informed by empirical investigation, models worker and firm search and hiring behavior in a manner consistent with recent...

The Omicron wave of the coronavirus has impacted economies worldwide, resulting in a bleak winter. Although restrictions on economic and public life have been less severe than at the beginning of 2021 in many places-mainly due to the progress of vaccination campaigns-and there are prospects of...

After the 2008 global financial crisis, U.S. bank holding companies needing to cover larger-than-expected loan losses raised concerns that existing provision accounting may be procyclical. Most related studies have found evidence of procyclicality using either aggregate time-series data or...

Non-clearing goods markets are an important driver of capacity utilisation and total factor productivity (TFP). The trade-off between goods prices and household search effort is central to goods market matching and therefore drives TFP over the business cycle. In this paper, I develop a...

The effects of private equity buyouts on employment, productivity, and job reallocation vary tremendously with macroeconomic and credit conditions, across private equity groups, and by type of buyout. We reach this conclusion by examining the most extensive database of U.S. buyouts ever...

Using newly digitized unemployment insurance claims data we construct a historical monthly unemployment series for U.S. states going back to January 1947. The constructed series are highly correlated with the Bureau of Labor Statics' state-level unemployment data, which are only available from...