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  • Search: subject_exact:"Konjunkturprognose"
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Year of publication
Subject
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Wirtschaftsprognose 11,520 Economic forecast 11,486 Prognoseverfahren 4,124 Forecasting model 3,997 Wirtschaftslage 2,082 Macroeconomic performance 1,841 Theorie 1,833 Theory 1,793 Prognose 1,788 Frühindikator 1,655 Leading indicator 1,652 Forecast 1,568 Wirtschaftswachstum 1,448 Economic growth 1,396 Welt 1,357 Konjunkturprognose 1,275 Konjunktur 1,197 World 1,155 Deutschland 1,139 USA 1,030 United States 972 Wirtschaftspolitik 821 EU-Staaten 759 Economic policy 706 Business cycle 701 EU countries 677 Zeitreihenanalyse 626 Time series analysis 606 Germany 596 Schätzung 517 Geldpolitik 516 Wirtschaftsindikator 506 Economic indicator 497 Nationaleinkommen 487 National income 486 Macroeconometrics 480 Makroökonometrie 480 Estimation 478 Monetary policy 476 Bruttoinlandsprodukt 467
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Online availability
All
Free 4,690 Undetermined 1,605 CC license 151 Digitizable 3
Type of publication
All
Book / Working Paper 7,211 Article 5,122 Journal 409 Database 2
Subcategories
All
Article in journal 4,339 Working paper 2,055 Book section 530 Government document 350 Proceedings 256 Statistics 163 Report 53 Literature review 27 Textbook 24 Review 22 Handbook 16 Annual report 7 Glossary included 7 Case study 6 Biography 4 Guidebook 1 Introduction 1 Law 1
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Language
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English 9,357 German 1,689 Russian 405 French 381 Undetermined 158 Polish 125 Spanish 122 Italian 100 Czech 85 Slovak 83 Hungarian 46 Croatian 42 Dutch 38 Swedish 31 Portuguese 25 Norwegian 22 Romanian 19 Danish 17 Bulgarian 16 Ukrainian 13 Slovenian 11 Finnish 8 Arabic 7 Serbian 7 Lithuanian 5 Afrikaans 4 Macedonian 3 Valencian 2 Indonesian 2 Kazakh 2 Modern Greek (1453-) 1 Estonian 1 Japanese 1 Korean 1 Malay (macrolanguage) 1 Albanian 1
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Author
All
Nierhaus, Wolfgang 175 Scheide, Joachim 175 Gern, Klaus-Jürgen 130 Jannsen, Nils 126 Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens 120 Groll, Dominik 117 Kooths, Stefan 117 Marcellino, Massimiliano 89 Meier, Carsten-Patrick 88 Clements, Michael P. 80 Dovern, Jonas 78 Boss, Alfred 74 Fiedler, Salomon 69 Wollmershäuser, Timo 66 Lehmann, Robert 65 Tober, Silke 65 Timmermann, Allan 62 Wohlrabe, Klaus 62 Giannone, Domenico 60 Hohlfeld, Peter 60 Potjagailo, Galina 57 Rietzler, Katja 55 Clark, Todd E. 52 Stephan, Sabine 52 Holtemöller, Oliver 51 Herzog-Stein, Alexander 48 Rossi, Barbara 48 Theobald, Thomas 46 Hendry, David F. 45 Ademmer, Martin 44 Kamps, Christophe 44 Lahiri, Kajal 44 Oskamp, Frank 41 Carstensen, Kai 40 Michelsen, Claus 40 van Roye, Björn 39 Döpke, Jörg 38 Henzel, Steffen 37 Watzka, Sebastian 37 Hinze, Jörg 35
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Institution
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OECD 194 International Monetary Fund / Research Dept 115 National Bureau of Economic Research 105 Kiel Institute for the World Economy 68 World Bank 55 European Central Bank 44 World Bank Group 38 International Monetary Fund / African Dept 36 European Commission / Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs 35 International Monetary Fund 35 International Monetary Fund / Middle East and Central Asia Dept 29 Europäische Kommission / Generaldirektion Wirtschaft und Finanzen 28 International Monetary Fund / Asia and Pacific Dept 25 Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose 24 International Monetary Fund / Western Hemisphere Dept 23 International Monetary Fund / European Dept 20 Weltbank 20 Weltbankgruppe 19 Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche 19 Internationaler Währungsfonds 18 Jerome Levy Economics Institute 16 Niederlande / Centraal Planbureau 16 Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung 16 Institute of Policy Studies <Singapur> 13 Institut für Höhere Studien 11 Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung 11 USA / Congress / Joint Economic Committee 11 Arbeitsgemeinschaft deutscher wirtschaftswissenschaftlicher Forschungsinstitute 10 Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys 10 GKI Gazdaságkutató Rt. <Budapest> 10 Institut Narodnochozjajstvennogo Prognozirovanija <Moskau> 10 Konjunkturinstitutet <Stockholm> 10 Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle 10 Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung 9 Nihon Keizai Kenkyū Sentā <Tokio> 9 Nihon-Sōgō-Kenkyūsho <Tokio> / Keizai-Gakubu 9 Prognos AG 9 Republička Zajednica za Znanstveni Rad SR Hrvatske 9 Republički Zavod za Društveno Planiranje SR Hrvatske <Zagreb> 9 USA / Congress / House of Representatives / Committee on the Budget 9
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Published in...
All
International journal of forecasting 319 ifo Dresden berichtet 164 Ifo Schnelldienst 141 ifo Schnelldienst 124 Monatsberichte / WIFO, Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung 122 OECD Economic Outlook: Statistics and Projections 117 NBER working paper series 99 Regional Economic Outlook 96 Journal of forecasting 88 Discussion paper / Centre for Economic Policy Research 80 Regional economic outlook 76 Studies on Russian economic development : the official journal of the Institute of Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of Sciences 74 European economy 72 NBER Working Paper 72 Working paper / National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. 72 Kieler Diskussionsbeiträge 68 Open Access publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 68 World economic outlook 66 Working paper 62 World Economic Outlook 57 IMF working papers 55 World Bank E-Library Archive 54 Working paper series / European Central Bank 50 Economic Updates and Modeling 48 Economic modelling 48 Wirtschaftsdienst : Zeitschrift für Wirtschaftspolitik 48 Report / IMK, Institut für Makroökonomie und Konjunkturforschung 46 DIW weekly report : economy, politics, science : a policy bulletin from the German Institute for Economic Research 44 Journal of business & economic statistics : JBES ; a publication of the American Statistical Association 44 Wirtschaftsdienst 44 European economic forecast 42 Global economics paper 40 Die Weltwirtschaft 38 Economics letters 38 Empirical economics : a journal of the Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna, Austria 38 IMK Report 37 Journal of applied econometrics 37 ECB Working Paper 36 EIU special report 36 CESifo working papers 35
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Source
All
ECONIS (ZBW) 11,748 EconStor 631 RePEc 311 USB Cologne (EcoSocSci) 40 OLC EcoSci 5 USB Cologne (business full texts) 4 BASE 2 Other ZBW resources 2 ArchiDok 1
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Showing 1 - 50 of 10,922
 
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Iran-Krieg und Energiepreisschock gefährden wirtschaftliche Erholung : Prognose der wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung 2026/2027
Breuer, Christian; Dullien, Sebastian; Herzog-Stein, … - 2026 - Abgeschlossen am 18.03.2026
Die Weltwirtschaft wird im Jahr 2026 durch den Iran-Krieg und den damit einhergehenden sprunghaften Anstieg der Energiepreise spürbar belastet. Eine anhaltende Blockade der für den globalen Rohöl- und Gashandel wichtigen Straße von Hormus und die Zerstörung von Förderkapazitäten...
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An in-depth assessment of the Central Bank of Malta's projections
Saliba, Maria Christine - 2026
This paper presents an in-depth analysis of the performance of the macroeconomic projections produced by Central Bank of Malta (CBM) staff. A real-time macroeconomic database published by the CBM is utilized, allowing for the computation of forecast errors based on the first official data...
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Forecasting Kazakhstan's GDP based on a dynamic factor model with regularization
Akhmet, Alisher - 2026
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Direct Gaussian process predictive regressions with mixed frequency data
Hauzenberger, Niko; Marcellino, Massimiliano; … - 2026
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A Novel Quarterly Macroeconomic Forecasting Framework : Illustration on the Case of Bosnia and Herzegovina
Hlédik, Tibor - 2026
This paper describes the Quarterly Macro Forecasting Framework (QMFF), which is a novel approach to macroeconomic policy analysis and forecasting. At the core of this framework is a Quarterly Projection Model, with main behavioral equations quantified as deviations of real variables from their...
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Nowcasting GDP Growth for Kenya
Danov, Nikolay - 2026
This paper develops a nowcasting model to produce timely estimates of quarterly GDP growth for Kenya. Nowcasting combines official monthly indicators with digital transaction data. Exploiting strong comovement of macroeconomic time series, a few latent factors summarize aggregate dynamics and...
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Algeria Macroeconomic Projection Model (AMPM)
Abderrahim, Mustapha - 2026
The paper describes QMPM, the Quarterly Projection Model for the Bank of Algeria that underpins the Bank’s Forecasting and Policy Analysis System. The model is designed to capture the key features of the economy, including the importance of the hydrocarbon sector, sizable fiscal policy...
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Introducing BISTRO: a foundational model for unconditional and conditional forecasting of macroeconomic time series
Koyuncu, Batuhan; Kwon, Byeungchun; Lombardi, Marco; … - 2026
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Konjunkturprognose Deutschland, Frühjahr 2026
Berlemann, Michael; Hinze, Jörg - 2026
Die deutsche Wirtschaft hatte sich zum Ende vergangenen Jahres hin stabilisiert; viele Konjunkturindikatoren entwickelten sich positiv. Die Wachstumschancen für 2026 und 2027 wurden aufgrund der von der Koalitionsregierung auf den Weg gebrachten fiskalpolitischen Ausgabenprogramme und...
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Measuring economic outlook in the news
Beck, Elliot; Eckert, Franziska; Kühne, Linus; … - 2026
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Austria's economy sees light at the end of the tunnel : economic outlook for 2025 to 2027
Ederer, Stefan; Schiman-Vukan, Stefan - 2026
Austria's economy is recovering over the projection period from a recession that, according to the revised National Accounts, proved comparably severe to Germany's. The rebound is driven by private consumption, while foreign trade in goods continues to contract for the time being. Residential...
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Outlier-robust evaluation of fixed-event macroeconomic survey expectations
Delis, Panagiotis; Kontogeorgos, Georgios - 2026
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Do anecdotes matter? : exploring the Beige Book through textual analysis from 1970 to 2025
Du, Shengwu; Haberkorn, Flora; Kitschelt, Isabel; Lee, … - 2026
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Projecting inflation tail risks in a small open economy : some evidence from Singapore
Chow, Hwee-kwan; Lee, Jordan - 2026
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German economy on the upswing-global economy continues to grow moderately
Dany-Knedlik, Geraldine; Baldi, Guido; Brehl, Nina Maria; … - 2026
After three years of subdued economic activity, the German economy is on the road to recovery. While the Iran war and erratic U.S. trade policy are weighing on growth, their impact is only moderate. Although the U.S. Supreme Court has ruled that U.S. tariffs are unlawful, this does not change...
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The life experience of central bankers and monetary policy decisions: a cross-country dataset
Madeira, Carlos - 2026
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Beating the "pros" with a semi-structural model of their own inflation forecasts
Alves, Sergio Afonso Lago; Areosa, Waldyr Dutra; … - 2026
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Forecasting economic growth with traditional methods and a simple neural network model
Li, Shujie; Feng, Yuanhua - 2026
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Nahost-Krieg trübt Konjunkturausblick : OeNB-Interimsprognose vom März 2026
Fenz, Gerhard; Fritzer, Friedrich; Graf, Bernhard; … - 2026
Nach einer zweijährigen Rezession verzeichnete Österreich 2025 ein moderates Wirtschaftswachstum von 0,7 %. Der Start in das Jahr 2026 verlief positiv. Der am 28. Februar ausgebrochene Nahost- Krieg und die in Folge gestiegenen Energiepreise bringen jedoch erneut große Unsicherheit mit sich...
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OECD Economic Outlook, Interim Report March 2026 : Testing Resilience
2026
The conflict in the Middle East is testing the resilience of the global economy that was being driven by supportive financial and fiscal conditions and increasing demand for artificial intelligence technologies. However, the recent major disruption to global energy and commodity markets has...
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Multivariate economic tail risk and scenario analysis using the survey of professional forecasters
Schick, Manuel; Opschoor, Anne - 2026
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Empirical assessment of budget multipliers for current and capital expenditures in Kazakhstan
Bukenov, Аmantay - 2026
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Erkennen von Expansionsphasen mit der IW-Konjunkturampel
Grömling, Michael; Wirths, Benjamin Paul - 2026 - Stand: Mai 2026
Die IW-Konjunkturampel wurde im Jahr 2015 entwickelt, um die Vielzahl von teilweise heterogenen Konjunkturinformationen systematisch zu bündeln und in einem aussagekräftigen Gesamtbild darzustellen. Mit diesem Verfahren werden für Deutschland, die USA, China, das Vereinigte Königreich und...
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Krieg im Nahen und Mittleren Osten führt zu deutlich erhöhter Inflation : gesamtwirtschaftliche Prognose für Österreich 2026 bis 2028 vom Juni 2026
Fenz, Gerhard; Fritzer, Friedrich; Graf, Bernhard; … - 2026
Die österreichische Wirtschaft hat zum Start ins Jahr 2026 positiv überrascht. Der Konflikt im Nahen und Mittleren Osten hat jedoch seit März die Inflation sprunghaft ansteigen lassen und dürfte die realwirtschaftliche Entwicklung zur Jahresmitte deutlich dämpfen. In Summe erwartet die...
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Potential output in Canada : 2026 assessment
Chernoff, Alex; Hajzler, Christopher; Houle, Stéphanie; … - 2026 - Last updated: May 25, 2026
Growth in potential output is expected to drop from 2.3% in 2025 to 1.2% in 2026 given slowing population growth, US tariffs and trade policy uncertainty. It is then estimated to pick up to an average of 1.5% over 2027-29 as strengthening business and government investment supports trend labour...
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Assessing global potential output growth : April 2026
De Munnik, Daniel; Hess, Kristina; Muiruri, Walter; … - 2026 - Last updated: May 25, 2026
We present the annual update of the Bank of Canada staff estimates for global potential output growth. Growth in global potential output is expected to remain broadly stable over the projection horizon at just above 3%, underpinned by the general strength in trend productivity growth, including...
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On the wisdom of crowds (of economists)
Diebold, Francis X.; Mora, Aarón; Shin, Minchul - 2026
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On the wisdom of crowds (of economists)
Diebold, Francis X.; Mora, Aarón; Shin, Minchul - 2025
Book / Working Paper
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News-based inflation expectations : LLM-assisted measurement and forecasting
Tanisa Tawichsri; Suppawong Tuarob; Nuwat Nookhwun; … - 2026
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Partisan bias in economic forecasts : experimental evidence from the presidential elections in Argentina
Mariño Fages, Diego - 2026
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Konjunkturprognose Deutschland, Sommer 2026
Berlemann, Michael; Hinze, Jörg - 2026
Nach gutem Start der deutschen Wirtschaft in dieses Jahr hinein haben sich seit Ende Februar durch den Irankrieg, insbesondere durch die Sperrung der Straße von Hormus und der damit verbundenen Energieverteuerung, die Perspektiven für Wachstum und Inflation deutlich verschlechtert. Die...
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Kalshi and the rise of macro markets
Diercks, Anthony M.; Katz, Jared Dean; Wright, Jonathan H. - 2026
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Kalshi and the Rise of Macro Markets
Diercks, Anthony M.; Katz, Jared Dean; Wright, Jonathan H. - 2026
Book / Working Paper
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Forecasting the economic effects of AI
Karger, Ezra; Kuusela, Otto; Abaluck, Jason; Bryan, Kevin; … - 2026
We elicit forecasts of how AI will affect the U.S. economy, comparing the beliefs of five groups: academic economists, employees at AI companies, policy researchers focused on AI, highly accurate forecasters, and the general public. The median respondent in each group expects substantial...
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Forecasting the Economic Effects of AI
Karger, Ezra; Kuusela, Otto; Abaluck, Jason; Bryan, Kevin A. - 2026
Book / Working Paper
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Inflation expectations in Japan : forecast revision and forecast trend
Zhai, Weiyang; Yoshida, Yūshi - 2026
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Forecasting inflation with artificial intelligence : a comparative analysis
Agostina Gonzalez, Daniela - 2026
Inflationary dynamics underscore the need for advanced methodologies to enhance forecasting accuracy. This paper explores the potential of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in generating short-term inflation forecasts for Argentina during the 2023-2024 period. The methodology leverages OpenAI's...
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Nowcasting economic activity in European regions using a mixed-frequency dynamic factor model
Barbaglia, Luca; Frattarolo, Lorenzo; Hauzenberger, Niko; … - 2026
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015668323
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Getting back on track : forecasting after extreme observations
Boug, Pål; Hungnes, Håvard; Kurita, Takamitsu - 2026
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Integrating nowcasts into an ensemble of data-driven forecasting models for SARI hospitalizations in Germany
Schienle, Melanie - 2026
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Short-term inflation projections : the new BoG'STIP model
Bragoudakis, Zacharias; Karakitsios, Alexandros; … - 2026
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Iran-Krieg durchkreuzt Hoffnung auf schnelle Erholung : Prognose-Update: die konjunkturelle Lage in Deutschland zur Jahresmitte 2026
Breuer, Christian; Dullien, Sebastian; Herzog-Stein, … - 2026 - Abgeschlossen am 15.06.202
Die Weltwirtschaft wird derzeit durch den Iran-Krieg und den damit einhergehenden Energiepreisschock belastet. In der Folge schwächt sich das Wachstum des Welthandels von 4,5 % im vergangenen Jahr auf 3,0 % in diesem Jahr ab, bevor es 2027 wieder auf 3,5 % ansteigen wird. Die deutsche...
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Reactions to the Bernanke Review from Bank of England watchers
Aikman, David; Barwell, Richard - 2026
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Carpe diem : can daily oil prices improve model-based forecasts of the real price of crude oil?
Benmoussa, Amor Aniss; Ellwanger, Reinhard; Snudden, Stephen - 2026
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The models and analysis behind the Bank of Finland's forecasts for the Finnish economy
Sariola, Mikko; Viertola, Hannu - 2026
The Bank of Finland produces forecasts for the Finnish economy using advanced modelling tools. Central to this process is its Aino model, which is a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model that integrates various aspects of the Finnish economy. The forecasts support policy decisions...
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Indonesia Economic Prospects, June 2026 : Managing Risks, Unlocking Productivity
2026
Indonesia entered 2026 with strong growth momentum, driven primarily by resilient domestic demand, with GDP expanding by 5.6 percent year-on-year in Q1 2026 - its highest since mid-2021 supported by robust household consumption, early Ramadan spending, public-sector bonuses, and the expansion of...
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Global Economic Prospects, June 2026
2026
The global economy is facing a major shock as the Middle East conflict drives sharp energy price increases. Global growth is projected to slow to 2.5 percent in 2026, with emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) facing the weakest per capita income growth since the pandemic. The effects...
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Survey design and professional forecasters : the case of uncertainty in the US SPF
Knüppel, Malte; Pavlova, Lora - 2026
Histogram forecasts of inflation and growth from the US Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) allow for an assessment of the evolution of forecast uncertainty. However, this assessment is complicated by structural breaks in measured uncertainty arising from changes in histogram bin widths...
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Forecasting with uncertain persistence
Flynn, Joel P.; Meinert, Maksim; Sastry, Karthik A. - 2026
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Short-term inflation expectations evaluation in the presence of instabilities
Caetano, Sidney Martins; Mazzeu, João H. G. - 2026
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Deutsche Wirtschaft auf Erholungskurs - Fiskalpolitik setzt Impulse. Prognose-Update: Die konjunkturelle Lage in Deutschland zur Jahresmitte 2025
Dullien, Sebastian; Breuer, Christian; Herzog-Stein, … - 2025
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ifo Konjunkturprognose Frühjahr 2025: Deutsche Wirtschaft steckt fest
Wollmershäuser, Timo; Ederer, Stefan; Fourné, Friederike - 2025
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Mit staatlichen Investitionen aus der Stagnation: Prognose der wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung 2025/2026
Dullien, Sebastian; Herzog-Stein, Alexander; Hohlfeld, Peter - 2025
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