This paper explores post-pandemic developments and analyses post-COVID matching dynamics in the Nordic labour markets. It also discusses the role of institutions and the policies implemented to address labour market mismatch in the region. The COVID-19 pandemic brought about a recession, with a...

There is still a lack of knowledge on how to effectively help the long-term unemployed into employment. We evaluate a wide range of active labour market policies for this target group, using a dynamic matching approach. Measures vary considerably in the extent to which they improve labour market...

We analysed a new counselling and support programme for people with low employment prospects in Austria. The Austrian Public Employment Service introduced regional pilots to investigate whether a new counselling strategy could improve labour market outcomes for this group. Eligible unemployed...

This paper studies the predictability of long-term unemployment (LTU) and analyzes its main determinants using rich administrative data in Sweden. Compared to using standard socio-demographic variables, the predictive power more than doubles when leveraging the rich data environment. The largest...

As we reach a post pandemic calming in the United States, and as we recall Covid-19’s immediate unemployment peak at record highs, it begs the question as to how our pandemic-driven recession compared to recession patterns witnessed during the 2008 economic crisis. By virtue of their wealth of...

Does unemployment duration matter for the measurement of economic slack and inflationary pressure? Using an empirical Phillips curve specification that is augmented to feature unemployment duration, we demonstrate that it is necessary to control for state-dependence in the Phillips curve in...

Purpose: Social spending is at the forefront of the tools used to repair the damage caused by the global epidemic. However, one of the most critical questions in recent days is as follows: what are the effects of social expenditures in eliminating unemployment? The primary purpose of this...

This paper aims to identify the factors contributing to the unusually high prevalence of over-indebtedness and debt enforcement proceedings in the Czech Republic at the granular geographic level of extended-powers municipalities (ORP). The main reason for this level is simple, not to lose...

This paper studies the predictability of long-term unemployment (LTU) and analyzes its main determinants using rich administrative data in Sweden. Compared to using standard socio-demographic variables, the predictive power more than doubles when leveraging the rich data environment. The largest...

This paper studies the predictability of long-term unemployment (LTU) and analyzes its main determinants using rich administrative data in Sweden. Compared to using standard socio-demographic variables, the predictive power more than doubles when leveraging the rich data environment. The largest...

In a randomized field experiment, we provide personalized suggestions about suitable alternative occupations to long-term unemployed job seekers in the UK. The suggestions are automatically generated, integrated in an online job search platform, and fed into actual search queries. Effects on the...

The duration of unemployment spells in Greece is investigated by looking at developments over time and by estimating duration models for unemployed men using data from the 2005 Greek Labour Force Survey (LFS). The prolongation of spells since the 1990s reflects the rise in the overall...

Hiring subsidies are widely used to create (stable) employment for the long-term unemployed. This paper exploits the abolition of a hiring subsidy targeted at long-term unemployed jobseekers over 45 years of age in Belgium to evaluate its effectiveness in the short and medium run. Based on a...

we created a workshop using a holistic service delivery model that incorporates both traditional job-search elements and non-traditional behavioral health interventions for helping the long-term unemployed (LTU) return to the workforce. Given the scale and challenges of the LTU population and...

We created a workshop using a holistic service delivery model that incorporates both traditional job-search elements and non-traditional behavioral health interventions for helping the long-term unemployed (LTU) return to the workforce. Given the scale and challenges of the LTU population and...

While the study of human work and the workplace occupies a central place in scientific thought and discourse, less attention is given to the unemployment phenomenon and far less to the long term unemployment experience. Focusing on the latter, this paper offers a conceptual framework and a...

In a randomized field experiment, we provide personalized suggestions about suitable alternative occupations to long-term unemployed job seekers in the UK. The suggestions are automatically generated, integrated in an online job search platform, and fed into actual search queries. Effects on the...

In this paper, we compare two popular statistical learning techniques, logistic regression and random forest, with respect to their ability to classify jobseekers by their likelihood to become long-term unemployed. We study the performance of the two methods before the COVID-19 pandemic as well...

Hiring subsidies are widely used to create (stable) employment for the long-term unemployed. This paper exploits the abolition of a hiring subsidy targeted at long-term unemployed jobseekers older than 45 years of age in Belgium to evaluate its effectiveness in the short and medium run. Based on...

The German government is planning to reform Hartz IV by replacing it with a simpler and more accessible system known as Bürgergeld. Using a random-based survey of eight job centers in North Rhine-Westphalia, this Weekly Report considers the perspectives of the long-term unemployed: What do they...

Ireland's Probability of Exit (PEX) statistical profiling model predicts the likelihood that a claimant will still be unemployed 12 months after the day that they make their initial unemployment benefit claim. The model was initially developed by the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI)...

"After receiving a PhD in mathematics from MIT, Larry spent three decades working in the tech industry, most recently in the area of speech recognition. And today, in his late-fifties and after a prolonged bout of unemployment, Larry is a cashier at a department store, earning just above the...

Mit dem "Teilhabechancengesetz" wurden zum Jahresbeginn 2019 die Instrumente "Eingliederung von Langzeitarbeitslosen" (§16e SGB II) sowie "Teilhabe am Arbeitsmarkt" (§16i SGB II) eingeführt. Beide Instrumente richten sich gleichermaßen an langzeitarbeitslose Leistungsberechtigte, die auch...

We estimate the labour market and health effects of a long-term unemployment (LTU) subsidy targeted to middle aged disadvantaged workers. In order to do so, we exploit a Spanish reform introduced in July 2012 that increased the age eligibility threshold to receive the subsidy from 52 to 55....

This paper addresses the question of why high unemployment rates tend to persist even after their proximate causes have been reversed (e.g., after wages relative to productivity have fallen). We suggest that the longer people are unemployed, the greater is their cumulative likelihood of falling...

The paper critically examines the New Keynesian explanation of hysteresis based on the role of long-term unemployment. We first examine its analytical foundations, according to which rehiring long-term unemployed individuals would not be possible without accelerating inflation. Then we...

This paper proposes a new econometric estimation method for analyzing the probability of leaving unemployment using uncompleted spells from repeated cross-section data, which can be especially useful when panel data are not available. The proposed method-of-moments-based estimator has two...

This paper shows the importance of European Social Fund’s (ESF) countermeasures for reintegrating long-term unemployed persons aged 50+ in Austria since their number has increased in recent years. Four research questions are defined, which deal with the theoretical background, the ESF's...

We investigate the effectiveness of three different job-search and training programmes for German long-term unemployed persons. On the basis of an extensive administrative data set, we evaluated the effects of those programmes on various levels of aggregation using Causal Machine Learning. We...

Hiring subsidies are widely used to create (stable) employment for the long-term unemployed. This paper exploits the abolition of a hiring subsidy targeted at long-term unemployed jobseekers over 45 years of age in Belgium to evaluate its effectiveness in the short and medium run. Based on a...