This paper studies the predictability of long-term unemployment (LTU) and analyzes its main determinants using rich administrative data in Sweden. Compared to using standard socio-demographic variables, the predictive power more than doubles when leveraging the rich data environment. The largest...

In this paper, we compare two popular statistical learning techniques, logistic regression and random forest, with respect to their ability to classify jobseekers by their likelihood to become long-term unemployed. We study the performance of the two methods before the COVID-19 pandemic as well...

In a randomized field experiment, we provide personalized suggestions about suitable alternative occupations to long-term unemployed job seekers in the UK. The suggestions are automatically generated, integrated in an online job search platform, and fed into actual search queries. Effects on the...

Hiring subsidies are widely used to create (stable) employment for the long-term unemployed. This paper exploits the abolition of a hiring subsidy targeted at long-term unemployed jobseekers older than 45 years of age in Belgium to evaluate its effectiveness in the short and medium run. Based on...

Ireland's Probability of Exit (PEX) statistical profiling model predicts the likelihood that a claimant will still be unemployed 12 months after the day that they make their initial unemployment benefit claim. The model was initially developed by the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI)...

The German government is planning to reform Hartz IV by replacing it with a simpler and more accessible system known as Bürgergeld. Using a random-based survey of eight job centers in North Rhine-Westphalia, this Weekly Report considers the perspectives of the long-term unemployed: What do they...

Mit dem "Teilhabechancengesetz" wurden zum Jahresbeginn 2019 die Instrumente "Eingliederung von Langzeitarbeitslosen" (§16e SGB II) sowie "Teilhabe am Arbeitsmarkt" (§16i SGB II) eingeführt. Beide Instrumente richten sich gleichermaßen an langzeitarbeitslose Leistungsberechtigte, die auch...

We integrate social exclusion, operationalized in terms of long-term unemployment, into the theory of optimal redistributive taxation. Our results show how an optimal mix of education policy, public employment, and support to the unemployed, in conjunction with optimal income taxation,...

We investigate the effectiveness of three different job-search and training programmes for German long-term unemployed persons. On the basis of an extensive administrative data set, we evaluated the effects of those programmes on various levels of aggregation using Causal Machine Learning. We...

Hiring subsidies are widely used to create (stable) employment for the long-term unemployed. This paper exploits the abolition of a hiring subsidy targeted at long-term unemployed jobseekers over 45 years of age in Belgium to evaluate its effectiveness in the short and medium run. Based on a...

This paper shows the importance of European Social Fund’s (ESF) countermeasures for reintegrating long-term unemployed persons aged 50+ in Austria since their number has increased in recent years. Four research questions are defined, which deal with the theoretical background, the ESF's...

Hiring subsidies are widely used to create (stable) employment for the long-term unemployed. This paper exploits the abolition of a hiring subsidy targeted at long-term unemployed jobseekers over 45 years of age in Belgium to evaluate its effectiveness in the short and medium run. Based on a...

Many European countries have implemented policies to revive their domestic service sectors. A common goal of these reforms has been to create employment for disadvantaged groups on the domestic labor market. I evaluate a Swedish policy where domestic service firms receive a 50% tax deduction on...

While unemployment rates in Europe declined after the global financial crisis until 2018/2019, the incidence of long-term unemployment, the share of people who have been unemployed for 1 year to the total unemployed, remained high. Moreover, the COVID-19 pandemic could aggravate the long-term...

Mit dem "Teilhabechancengesetz" wurden zum Jahresbeginn 2019 die Instrumente "Eingliederung von Langzeitarbeitslosen" (§16e SGB II) sowie "Teilhabe am Arbeitsmarkt" (§16i SGB II) eingeführt. Beide Instrumente richten sich gleichermaßen an langzeitarbeitslose Leistungsberechtigte, die auch...

The paper critically examines the New Keynesian explanation of hysteresis based on the role of long-term unemployment. We first examine its analytical foundations, according to which rehiring long-term unemployed individuals would not be possible without accelerating inflation. Then we...

We estimate the labour market and health effects of a long-term unemployment (LTU) subsidy targeted to middle aged disadvantaged workers. In order to do so, we exploit a Spanish reform introduced in July 2012 that increased the age eligibility threshold to receive the subsidy from 52 to 55....

Hiring subsidies are widely used to create (stable) employment for the long-term unemployed. This paper exploits the abolition of a hiring subsidy targeted at long-term unemployed jobseekers over 45 years of age in Belgium to evaluate its effectiveness in the short and medium run. Based on a...

While unemployment rates in Europe declined after the global financial crisis until 2018/19, the incidence of long-term unemployment, the share of people who have been unemployed for more than one year to the total unemployed, remained high. Moreover, the COVID-19 pandemic could aggravate the...

This study investigates whether and to what extent further unemployment experience for youths who are already long-term unemployed imposes a penalty on subsequent labor market outcomes. We propose a flexible method for analyzing the effect on wages aside of transitions from unemployment and...

In a number of papers A.J. Oswald (1996, 1997) argues that high rates of home ownership may imply inferior labour market outcomes. This paper tests the Oswald hypothesis in a panel of 42 Belgian districts since the 1970s. The use of data going back to 1970 allows us to embed the Oswald...

The impact of the administration of unemployment benefits on time spent unemployed is a neglected issue in discussion of incentive effects in Central and Eastern Europe. We use Labour Force Survey data, administrative registers and inspection of benefit office practices to show that there is...

We report empirical evidence from the first field experiments to be conducted in Germany with program and control groups between 1999 and 2002. The evaluated program called "Targeted Negative Income Tax (TNIT)" is a time-restricted employee subsidy for means-tested welfare recipients. We focus...

This paper evaluates counselling programmes in an equilibrium matching model where workers are heterogeneous in skill levels. Job search effort, labour demand and wages are endogenous. When wages are bargained over, raising the effectiveness of or the access to counselling programmes pushes...

This paper studies the role of long-term unemployment in the determination of prices and wages. Labor market theories such as insider-outsider models predict that this type of unemployed are less relevant in the wage formation process than the newly unemployed. This paper looks for evidence of...

This paper proposes a new econometric estimation method for analyzing the probability of leaving unemployment using uncompleted spells from repeated cross-section data, which can be especially useful when panel data are not available. The proposed method-of-moments-based estimator has two...

In this paper we investigate whether unemployment traps exist and are significant in the transition from unemployment into employment in Belgium. In order to assess them, we use panel data sample selection models. Specifically, we estimate a parametric random effects models composed by a wage...

The issues of persistence in the observed labour market status of men are investigated using the British Household Panel Survey for the period 1991-97. The paper extends previous work in many directions. In particular, problems of endogenous initial conditions, and unobserved heterogeneity, are...

Welfare reform in Australia centres on the concept of both economic and social participation. The policy concern is that people who fail to participate in economic and social life may become entrenched in disadvantage. In 2000 - 2001, a randomized trial was conducted by the Department of Family...

The paper attempts at disentangling the main sources of the rise in the Italian unemployment rate over the last four decades on the basis of a small model a la Layard-Nickell, identified and estimated using a structural VAR approach. Unemployment movements are assumed to be driven by fully...

Using a large panel of administrative records this study confirms the predictions of the ranking model of Blanchard and Diamond (1994) that an individual's probability of leaving unemployment decreases with unemployment duration and increases with economic growth. However, the ranking model of...

This paper examines the determinants of unemployment duration in a competing risks framework with two destination states, namely, inactivity and employment. The major innovation is our recognition of defective risks. We first use a polynomial hazard function to test for the presence of...

In this paper we analyze the processes of labor market exclusion and (re-)inclusion, using a Danish register-based data set covering the period 1981-1990. The analysis is performed by estimation of reduced form transition models, the parameters of which are interpreted within the framework of...

This paper analyzes the importance of financial disincentives for workers in Denmark. Based on a panel survey which is merged to a number of administrative registers it is possible to calculate precise measures of the economic incentives for labor force participants between employment in a full...

This paper develops a model that shows why high-skilled workers move more and are therefore unemployed less than low-skilled workers. The model can explain the paradoxical empirical regularity that higher owner-occupation rates are associated with higher levels of unemployment although...

This paper addresses the question of why high unemployment rates tend to persist even after their proximate causes have been reversed (e.g., after wages relative to productivity have fallen). We suggest that the longer people are unemployed, the greater is their cumulative likelihood of falling...

Statistical models can help public employment services to identify factors associated with long-term unemployment and to identify at-risk groups. Such profiling models will likely become more prominent as increasing availability of big data combined with new machine learning techniques improve...