Using Monte Carlo experiments, we examine the performance of indirect inference tests of DSGE models in small samples, using various models in widespread use. We compare these with tests based on direct inference (using the Likelihood Ratio). We find that both tests have power so that a...

In this study we evaluate the forecast performance of model averaged forecasts based on the predictive likelihood carrying out a prior sensitivity analysis regarding Zellner’s g prior. The main results are fourfold: First the predictive likelihood does always better than the traditionally...

It is argued that standard impulse response analysis based on vector autoregressive models has a number of shortcomings. Although the impulse responses are estimated quantities, measures for sampling variability such as confidence intervals are often not provided. If confidence intervals are...

A major application of rescaled adjusted range analysis (RS analysis) is the study of price fluctuations in financial markets. There, the value of the Hurst constant, H, in a time series may be interpreted as an indicator of the irregularity of the price of a commodity, currency or similar...