In this paper we introduce two measures, the Systemic Liquidity Buffer (SLB) and the Systemic Liquidity Shortfall (SLS) to assess liquidity in the banking system. The SLB takes an aggregated perspective on liquidity risks in the banking system. In contrast, the SLS focusses on the problematic...

The COVID-19 pandemic has affected people's lives and increased the banking solvency risk. This research aimed to build an early warning and early action simulation model to mitigate the solvency risk using the system dynamics methodology and the Powersim Studio 10© software. The addition of an...

The paper aims to investigate the effects of financial distress risk (FDR) and related party transactions (RPT) on financial reporting quality (FRQ) in an emerging market called Iran. In this study, the ordinary least squares regression (OLS) method is employed to test the hypotheses; moreover,...

This paper reviews the theoretical literature at the intersection of macroeconomics and finance to draw lessons on the connection between vulnerabilities in the financial system and the macroeconomy, and on how monetary policy affects that connection. This literature finds that financial...

This paper reviews literature on the empirical relationship between vulnerabilities in the financial system and the macroeconomy, and how monetary policy affects that connection. Financial vulnerabilities build up over time, with both risk appetite and risk taking rising during economic...

Money market funds (MMFs) are popular around the world, with over $9 trillion in assets under management globally. From their origins in the 1970s, MMFs have operated in a niche between the capital markets and the banking system, as investment funds that offer private money-like assets with...

In this study, a new risk assessment model is developed and the evidence reasoning (ER) approach is applied to assess failure risk of knowledge-intensive services (KIS) corporates in the UK. General quantitative financial indicators alone (e.g., operational capability or profitability) cannot...

This study analyzes the influence of operating capital on a firm’s profitability in the manufacturing sector of China. The study investigates that operating capital develops a non-linear relationship with firm profitability by using the ordinary least square (OLS), fixed effect (FE), and...

The 2015 Addis Ababa Action Agenda recognized the need for policies aimed at maintaining longterm debt sustainability. This paper describes a set of commonly used definitions of debt sustainability and shows that none of them focuses on long-term debt sustainability. It then discusses concept...

This study aims to investigate the impact of banking-sector concentration on the banks' liquidity creation in GCC countries over the period from 2012 to 2018 by using a dynamic GMM panel procedure. The results suggest that increased bank competition reduces banks' liquidity creation across the...

Purpose - Despite the sophisticated regulatory regime established in Solvency II, analysts should be able to consider other less complex indicators of the soundness of insurers. The Z-score measure, which has traditionally been used as a proxy of individual risk in the banking sector, may be a...

We examine the dynamics of liquidity connectedness in the cryptocurrency market. We use the connectedness models of Diebold and Yilmaz (Int J Forecast 28(1):57-66, 2012) and Baruník and Křehlík (J Financ Econom 16(2):271-296, 2018) on a sample of six major cryptocurrencies, namely, Bitcoin...

This paper examines the usefulness of logit regression in forecasting the consumer bankruptcy of households using an imbalanced dataset. The research on consumer bankruptcy prediction is of paramount importance as it aims to build statistical models that can identify consumers in a difficult...

In this study, we apply several advanced machine learning techniques including extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), support vector machine (SVM), and a deep neural network to predict bankruptcy using easily obtainable financial data of 3728 Belgian Small and Medium Enterprises (SME’s) during...

This paper models the immediate impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Irish SMEs and extrapolates forward their performance as restrictions ease. Our baseline scenario shows a steady recovery path for the median firm. However, indicators of financial difficulties remain persistently high with the...

This paper reviews the theoretical literature at the intersection of macroeconomics and finance to draw lessons on the connection between vulnerabilities in the financial system and the macroeconomy, and on how monetary policy affects that connection. This literature finds that financial...

We develop a sovereign default risk index using natural language processing techniques and 10 million news articles covering over 100 countries. The index is a highfrequency measure of countries' default risk, particularly for those lacking marketbased measures: it correlates with sovereign CDS...

This work uses financial markets connected by arbitrage relations to investigate the dynamics of price and liquidity discovery, which refer to the cross-instrument forecasting power for prices and liquidity, respectively. Specifically, we seek to understand the linkage between the cheapest to...

Purpose: Previous research on the relationship between a firm’s distress risk and future stock returns produces inconsistent results. This study attempts to explain the conflicting results of earlier studies by showing that systematic distress risk leads to positive rewards, while unsystematic...

This article addresses the problem of pricing European options when the underlying asset is not perfectly liquid. A liquidity discounting factor as a function of market-wide liquidity governed by a mean-reverting stochastic process and the sensitivity of the underlying price to market-wide...

Quantitative models of sovereign debt predict that countries should default during deep recessions. However, empirical research on sovereign debt has found a surprisingly large share of "good times" defaults (i.e., defaults that happen when GDP is above trend). Existing evidence also indicates...

An employee's annual earnings fall by 13% the year her firm files for bankruptcy, and the present value of lost earnings from bankruptcy to six years following bankruptcy is 87% of pre-bankruptcy annual earnings. More worker earnings are lost in thin labor markets and among small firms. Ex ante...

We consider financial networks where agents are linked to each other with financial contracts. A centralized clearing mechanism collects the initial endowments, the liabilities and the division rules of the agents and determines the payments to be made. A division rule specifies how the assets...

We specify and estimate a lifecycle model of consumption, housing demand and labor supply in an environment where individuals may file for bankruptcy or default on their mortgage. Uncertainty in the model is driven by house price shocks, education specific productivity shocks, and catastrophic...