We use long-run annual cross-country data for 10 macroeconomic variables to evaluate the long-horizon forecast distributions of six forecasting models. The variables we use range from ones having little serial correlation to ones having persistence consistent with unit roots. Our forecasting...

Previous work using mostly self-reports shows large, positive effects of early-life exposure to Food Stamps on self-sufficiency, health, and well-being-lasting well into adulthood. We combine this same adoption timing with administrative data on earnings, employment, and use of disability...