In this paper, we compare two popular statistical learning techniques, logistic regression and random forest, with respect to their ability to classify jobseekers by their likelihood to become long-term unemployed. We study the performance of the two methods before the COVID-19 pandemic as well...

Hiring subsidies are widely used to create (stable) employment for the long-term unemployed. This paper exploits the abolition of a hiring subsidy targeted at long-term unemployed jobseekers older than 45 years of age in Belgium to evaluate its effectiveness in the short and medium run. Based on...

In a randomized field experiment, we provide personalized suggestions about suitable alternative occupations to long-term unemployed job seekers in the UK. The suggestions are automatically generated, integrated in an online job search platform, and fed into actual search queries. Effects on the...

The German government is planning to reform Hartz IV by replacing it with a simpler and more accessible system known as Bürgergeld. Using a random-based survey of eight job centers in North Rhine-Westphalia, this Weekly Report considers the perspectives of the long-term unemployed: What do they...

Statistical models can help public employment services to identify factors associated with long-term unemployment and to identify at-risk groups. Such profiling models will likely become more prominent as increasing availability of big data combined with new machine learning techniques improve...

We integrate social exclusion, operationalized in terms of long-term unemployment, into the theory of optimal redistributive taxation. Our results show how an optimal mix of education policy, public employment, and support to the unemployed, in conjunction with optimal income taxation,...

Hiring subsidies are widely used to create (stable) employment for the long-term unemployed. This paper exploits the abolition of a hiring subsidy targeted at long-term unemployed jobseekers over 45 years of age in Belgium to evaluate its effectiveness in the short and medium run. Based on a...

Hiring subsidies are widely used to create (stable) employment for the long-term unemployed. This paper exploits the abolition of a hiring subsidy targeted at long-term unemployed jobseekers over 45 years of age in Belgium to evaluate its effectiveness in the short and medium run. Based on a...

Overcoming long-term unemployment is a challenging task in which trust of the long-term unemployed in their caseworkers is a key issue. However, research about drivers of this trust is a white spot in the literature. The paper closes this gap. Embedded in a theoretical model at the...

In this paper, we compare two popular statistical learning techniques, logistic regression and random forest, with respect to their ability to classify jobseekers by their likelihood to become long-term unemployed. We study the performance of the two methods before the COVID-19 pandemic as well...

In a randomized field experiment, we provide personalized suggestions about suitable alternative occupations to long-term unemployed job seekers in the UK. The suggestions are automatically generated, integrated in an online job search platform, and fed into actual search queries. Effects on the...

The German government is planning to reform Hartz IV by replacing it with a simpler and more accessible system known as Bürgergeld. Using a random-based survey of eight job centers in North Rhine-Westphalia, this Weekly Report considers the perspectives of the long-term unemployed: What do they...

Mit dem Bürgergeld plant die Ampel-Koalition eine Reform des Hartz-IV-Systems mit Erleichterungen für Leistungsbeziehende. Dieser Wochenbericht nimmt auf Basis einer zufallsbasierten Befragung in acht Jobcentern in Nordrhein-Westfalen die Perspektive von Langzeitarbeitslosen ein: Wie schätzen...

Ireland's Probability of Exit (PEX) statistical profiling model predicts the likelihood that a claimant will still be unemployed 12 months after the day that they make their initial unemployment benefit claim. The model was initially developed by the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI)...

Mit dem Bürgergeld plant die Ampel-Koalition eine Reform des Hartz-IV-Systems mit Erleichterungen für Leistungsbeziehende. Dieser Wochenbericht nimmt auf Basis einer zufallsbasierten Befragung in acht Jobcentern in Nordrhein-Westfalen die Perspektive von Langzeitarbeitslosen ein: Wie schätzen...

This paper studies the effect of state-owned enterprises on the dynamics of the Chinese urban labor market. Using longitudinal monthly panel data, we document very low dynamics in the labor market, especially in the state sector. We develop and calibrate an equilibrium search and matching model...

Individual unemployment spells are frequently interrupted by short casual employment, by participation in active labour market policy (ALMP) measures or by periods outside the labour force. Such episodes end unemployment spells but afterwards the person gets often unemployed again, and the...

Hiring subsidies are widely used to create (stable) employment for the long-term unemployed. This paper exploits the abolition of a hiring subsidy targeted at long-term unemployed jobseekers over 45 years of age in Belgium to evaluate its effectiveness in the short and medium run. Based on a...

We integrate social exclusion, operationalized in terms of long-term unemployment, into the theory of optimal redistributive taxation. Our results show how an optimal mix of education policy, public employment, and support to the unemployed, in conjunction with optimal income taxation,...

Hiring subsidies are widely used to create (stable) employment for the long-term unemployed. This paper exploits the abolition of a hiring subsidy targeted at long-term unemployed jobseekers over 45 years of age in Belgium to evaluate its effectiveness in the short and medium run. Based on a...

Mit dem "Teilhabechancengesetz" wurden zum Jahresbeginn 2019 die Instrumente "Eingliederung von Langzeitarbeitslosen" (§16e SGB II) sowie "Teilhabe am Arbeitsmarkt" (§16i SGB II) eingeführt. Beide Instrumente richten sich gleichermaßen an langzeitarbeitslose Leistungsberechtigte, die auch...

This paper evaluates counselling programmes in an equilibrium matching model where workers are heterogeneous in skill levels. Job search effort, labour demand and wages are endogenous. When wages are bargained over, raising the effectiveness of or the access to counselling programmes pushes...

This paper studies the role of long-term unemployment in the determination of prices and wages. Labor market theories such as insider-outsider models predict that this type of unemployed are less relevant in the wage formation process than the newly unemployed. This paper looks for evidence of...

This paper proposes a new econometric estimation method for analyzing the probability of leaving unemployment using uncompleted spells from repeated cross-section data, which can be especially useful when panel data are not available. The proposed method-of-moments-based estimator has two...

In this paper we investigate whether unemployment traps exist and are significant in the transition from unemployment into employment in Belgium. In order to assess them, we use panel data sample selection models. Specifically, we estimate a parametric random effects models composed by a wage...

The issues of persistence in the observed labour market status of men are investigated using the British Household Panel Survey for the period 1991-97. The paper extends previous work in many directions. In particular, problems of endogenous initial conditions, and unobserved heterogeneity, are...

Welfare reform in Australia centres on the concept of both economic and social participation. The policy concern is that people who fail to participate in economic and social life may become entrenched in disadvantage. In 2000 - 2001, a randomized trial was conducted by the Department of Family...

The paper attempts at disentangling the main sources of the rise in the Italian unemployment rate over the last four decades on the basis of a small model a la Layard-Nickell, identified and estimated using a structural VAR approach. Unemployment movements are assumed to be driven by fully...

Using a large panel of administrative records this study confirms the predictions of the ranking model of Blanchard and Diamond (1994) that an individual's probability of leaving unemployment decreases with unemployment duration and increases with economic growth. However, the ranking model of...

This paper examines the determinants of unemployment duration in a competing risks framework with two destination states, namely, inactivity and employment. The major innovation is our recognition of defective risks. We first use a polynomial hazard function to test for the presence of...

In this paper we analyze the processes of labor market exclusion and (re-)inclusion, using a Danish register-based data set covering the period 1981-1990. The analysis is performed by estimation of reduced form transition models, the parameters of which are interpreted within the framework of...

This paper analyzes the importance of financial disincentives for workers in Denmark. Based on a panel survey which is merged to a number of administrative registers it is possible to calculate precise measures of the economic incentives for labor force participants between employment in a full...

This paper develops a model that shows why high-skilled workers move more and are therefore unemployed less than low-skilled workers. The model can explain the paradoxical empirical regularity that higher owner-occupation rates are associated with higher levels of unemployment although...

Statistical models can help public employment services to identify factors associated with long-term unemployment and to identify at-risk groups. Such profiling models will likely become more prominent as increasing availability of big data combined with new machine learning techniques improve...