Standard consumption models assume a notional consumption flow that does not distinguish between nondurable and durable consumption. Such notional-consumption models generate notional marginal propensities to consume (MPC). By contrast, empirical work and policy discussions often highlight...

This lecture focuses on the costs of public debt when safe interest rates are low. I develop four arguments.First, I show that the current U.S. situation in which safe interest rates are expected to remain below growth rates for a long time, is more the historical norm than the exception. If the...

We show that New Keynesian models with frictionless labor supply face a challenge: given standard parameters, they cannot simultaneously match plausible estimates of marginal propensities to consume (MPCs), marginal propensities to earn (MPEs), and fiscal multipliers. A HANK model with sticky...

We calculate the social return on algorithmic interventions (specifically their Marginal Value of Public Funds) across multiple domains of interest to economists--regulation, criminal justice, medicine, and education. Though these algorithms are different, the results are similar and striking....

This paper seeks to clarify the extent to which the rule for providing public goods ought to correct for the distortionary cost of raising funds. We argue that, in evaluating public projects, the marginal cost of funds (MCF) concept must be supplemented by a symmetrical concept, which we label...

Marginal outcome tests compare the expected effects of a decision on individuals who are of different races but at the same indifference point of the decision-maker. I present a simple formalization of how such tests can detect racial bias, defined as a deviation from accurate statistical...

I study unemployment insurance (UI) in general equilibrium with incomplete markets, search frictions, and nominal rigidities. An increase in generosity raises the aggregate demand for consumption if the unemployed have a higher marginal propensity to consume (MPC) than the employed or if agents...

Marginal outcome tests compare the expected effects of a decision on individuals who are of different races but at the same indifference point of the decision-maker. I present a simple formalization of how such tests can detect racial bias, defined as a deviation from accurate statistical...

Recent debates about the optimal form of social protection programs have highlighted the potential for cash as the preferred form of transfer to low income households. However, in-kind transfers remain prevalent throughout the world. We argue that beneficiaries themselves may prefer in-kind...

The paper shows that a comparison of the appropriately-weighted sum of households' marginal willingness to pay for a public good with the net effect of the increased supply of the public good on shadow, as distinct from actual, government revenue is a generally valid rule for public good...

We present evidence that the high estimated MPCs from the leading household studies result in implausible macroeconomic counterfactuals. Using the 2008 tax rebate as a case study, we calibrate a standard medium-scale New Keynesian model with the estimated micro MPCs to construct counterfactual...

This article considers a Mann-Whitney test of distributional effects in a multivalued treatment. Specifically, we first show that, under the unconfoundedness condition, the counterfactual distributions are weighted averages, with weights satisfying some moment restrictions. We estimate the...

We establish an impossibility result for New Keynesian models with a frictionless labor market: these models cannot simultaneously match plausible estimates of marginal propensities to consume (MPCs), marginal propensities to earn (MPEs), and fiscal multipliers. A HANK model with sticky wages...

Blanchard develops four main arguments concerning the costs of public debt when safe interest rates are low.First, the current US situation in which safe interest rates are expected to remain below growth rates for a long time is more the historical norm than the exception. If the future is like...

The debate that took place at the end of 19th and the beginning of 20th century on the neoclassical income distribution theory based on the marginal productivity of the production factors is well known. The debate evolved especially around the question whether the product is exactly exhausted...

Using micro-data on firm-specific borrowing costs and wages, we demonstrate that distortions in firms' policies can be empirically measured using firm-level gaps between marginal revenue products and user costs (MRP-cost gaps). We estimate MRP-cost gaps for 4.7 million firm-year observations in...

Dispersion in marginal revenue products of inputs across plants is commonly thought to reflect misallocation, i.e., dispersion is "bad." We document that most dispersion occurs across plants within rather than between firms. In a model of multi-plant firms, we then show that dispersion can be...

First, I show that the current U.S. situation in which safe interest rates are expected to remain below growth rates for a long time, is more the historical norm than the exception. If the future is like the past, this implies that debt rollovers, that is the issuance of debt without a later...

Dispersion in marginal revenue products of inputs across plants is commonly thought to reflect misallocation, i.e., dispersion is "bad." We document that most dispersion occurs across plants within rather than between firms. In a model of multi-plant firms, we then show that dispersion can be...

This paper studies the implications of household financial choices for the effects of monetary policy on consumption. Based on data from four major euro area countries, the paper estimates the key structural parameters using a simulated method of moments approach to match moments related to...

Multivalued treatment models have typically been studied under restrictive assumptions: ordered choice, and more recently unordered monotonicity. We show how treatment effects can be identified in a more general class of models that allows for multidimensional unobserved heterogeneity. Our...

This paper studies household financial choices in four euro area countries. The goal of the analysis is to understand the sources of the differences in these choices and their implications for the impact of monetary policy on consumption. The estimation of key parameters uses a simulated method...