Carbon pricing is widely recognized as a key tool for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. However, if implemented without compensatory measures, it can increase poverty and inequality. The aim of this paper is to examine the role of carbon pricing in generating fiscal space for expanding social...

When structural labor supply models are unavailable or impractical, the paper proposes a practical method for incorporating behavioral responses into static taxbenefit microsimulation models. Using elasticity estimates from the literature, the proposed external evidence procedure offers a...

This report provides an up-to-date assessment of the scale and distributional impact of tax relief on public, occupational, and private pension contributions in Ireland. Using SWITCH, the ESRI's tax-benefit microsimulation model, we quantify the cost of tax relief under the current...

Trade mis-invoicing represents a significant economic challenge in Ghana, with losses estimated at 3.03 per cent of gross domestic product in 2018. We examine the potential of a universal child benefit in Ghana through a counterfactual taxation of illicit financial flows. Using microsimulation,...

As the baby boomer generation enters retirement, the payas-you-go pension system in Germany is under an increasing amount of pressure. Relevant changes, in particular higher contribution rates or lower pension levels, are causing tension between generations: Either the financial burden on the...

Social assistance for education is one of several instruments in Indonesia to support poor and vulnerable people. There are two main programs which is Family Hope Program (PKH) and Smart Indonesia Program (PIP). Analyzing the distributional impact to both programs is very important to improve...

As middle income countries grow they see an increase in demand for energy. To avoid extreme climate change as these countries develop, there will be a need to decarbonise the increased energy consumption as they grow. We use the PRICES microsimulation model to examine the impact of carbon...

This study assesses the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on catastrophic health expenditures and income inequality in Benin. A microsimulation was calibrated to estimate the impact of the pandemic under three different shock scenarios: low, moderate, and severe. The analysis relies on secondary...

The debate over universal basic income (UBI) has gained traction in the developing world in recent years. We analyse the effects of four UBI schemes on poverty and inequality measures during normal times and times of crisis in Uganda and Zambia. We use static microsimulation models and...

This paper analyses the effectiveness of tax-benefit systems in reducing poverty and inequality across 13 countries in the Global South. Using national survey data and tax-benefit microsimulation models from the SOUTHMOD project, we provide a cross-country perspective on the redistributive...

Informal care is often accompanied by a reduction or abandonment of professional activity by the caregiver. Therefore, caregiving may be associated with a lower pension for the former caregiver than for people without care obligations. There is a large gender difference in informal care...

Proponents of a basic income (BI) claim that it could bring significant reductions in financial poverty, on top of many other benefits, including greatly reduced administrative complexity and cost. Using microsimulation analysis in a comparative two-country setting, we show that the potential...

How much does society value redistribution? The common method to derive inverse-optimum welfare weights is by inverting an optimal-tax model. Our alternative imposes fewer restrictions on labor supply and enables comparisons across household types. We use a structural labor supply model to...

How much does society value redistribution? The common method to derive inverse-optimum welfare weights is by inverting an optimal-tax model. Our alternative imposes fewer restrictions on labor supply and enables comparisons across household types. We use a structural labor supply model to...

The world has faced an increasing number of global shocks that have resulted in large and unpredictable changes in global prices, particularly of food. These increases, coupled with the negative impacts of shocks to economic growth, have had damaging effects on welfare, hunger, and diets. Future...

When structural labor supply models are unavailable or impractical, the paper proposes a practical method for incorporating behavioral responses into static taxbenefit microsimulation models. Using elasticity estimates from the literature, the proposed external evidence procedure offers a...

This paper assesses the fiscal and distributional effects of personal income tax expenditures in Portugal using EUROMOD and 2022 EU-SILC microdata. We compare the 2023 tax-benefit system with a counterfactual scenario in which tax expenditures are removed to estimate first-round impacts. We find...

This paper assesses the fiscal and distributional effects of personal income tax expenditures in Portugal using EUROMOD and 2022 EU-SILC microdata. We compare the 2023 tax-benefit system with a counterfactual scenario in which tax expenditures are removed to estimate first-round impacts. We find...

This article introduces Green EUROMOD, the environmental extension of the EU's tax-benefit microsimulation model EUROMOD. It provides a novel framework for evaluating the distributional, environmental, and fiscal impacts of green policy reforms across the 27 EU Member States. The model captures...

Carbon pricing is widely recognized as a key tool for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. However, if implemented without compensatory measures, it can increase poverty and inequality. The aim of this paper is to examine the role of carbon pricing in generating fiscal space for expanding social...

Purpose and scope: This analysis assesses the cumulative impact of the Autumn Budget Statement 2025 on UK residents over the period 2026-2030. The Budget has been passed by Parliament and will be implemented beginning in April 2026. This report models policy impact on the UK population using...

This paper describes the integration of labour supply behavioural responses into UKMOD, the UK tax-benefit microsimulation model belonging to the EUROMOD family. Traditional static models quantify only the direct ("morning after") fiscal and distributional effects of policy reforms, abstracting...

In April 2013, a significant change to Child Benefit (CB) was introduced in the UK: it switched from a universal benefit to a targeted benefit. The new High Income Child Benefit Charge (HICBC) required families to repay some or all of their Child Benefit via the tax system if either partner's...

Non-take-up of social benefits occurs when eligible individuals or households fail to claim welfare support to which they are entitled. This paper provides new estimates of take-up for major UK benefits between 2008 and 2023, including Child Benefit, Pension Credit, and Universal Credit together...

Given that estimating the comprehensive and precise impacts of the COVID-19 crisis is challenging, this paper aims to quantify the overall impacts of the COVID-19 on Thai economy both at the macroeconomic and household levels. Our finding indicates that if government supports are not...

This study evaluates which type of benefit-a universal benefit, a proxy mean-tested benefit, or a categorical benefit- better cushions the poverty effects of income shocks in a developing economy. We compare the effectiveness of the three benefit schemes on poverty first conceptually and then by...

Population projections are predominantly made using the cohort-component method (CCM). The opportunities for further development within that framework are limited. Lately, with advances in technical and computational capacity, the microsimulation framework has become a serious contender. In...

This paper quantifies the effect of Poland's 1999 pension reform on the inequality of future pension benefits. The reform increases inequality, both in the upper and lower parts of the distribution. The estimates, based on the 2012 Polish Household Budget Survey, show that the Gini coefficient...

This paper evaluates two hypothetical budget-neutral reforms that shift resources from family tax expenditures to family cash transfers. We evaluate these reforms using a structural labor supply model based on the microsimulation EUROMOD model and EUSILC data. We find that both reforms have an...

Establishing an equitable and efficient tax system is essential for reducing poverty, combating inequality, and fostering sustainable economic growth. Rwanda's government has recognized this and implemented significant changes to the personal income tax schedule for 2023 and 2024 as part of...

This paper evaluates two hypothetical budget-neutral reforms that shift resources from family tax expenditures to family cash transfers. We evaluate these reforms using a structural labor supply model based on the microsimulation EUROMOD model and EU-SILC data. We find that both reforms have an...

Microsimulation models of the LOTTE system are key tools for tax policy-making in Norway and are extensively used in the budget process. The aim of this paper is to give an overview of the different modules in the LOTTE family - a non-behavioral tax-benefit model for personal income tax...

South Africa has a progressive broad-based personal income tax system with relatively few tax expenditures. The two most important are the medical contribution plus additional tax credits for medical expenses, and the deductions allowed for retirement contributions. A pertinent question for tax...

In this paper we explore options for augmenting South Africa's personal income tax revenue using two microsimulation models: PITMOD simulates the personal income tax system and is underpinned by a dataset comprising a full extract of anonymized individual-level administrative tax data; and SAMOD...

Proponents of a basic income (BI) claim that it could bring significant reductions in financial poverty, on top of many other benefits, including greatly reduced administrative complexity and cost. Using microsimulation analysis in a comparative two-country setting, we show that the potential...

This paper examines trends in household financial strain across Europe from 2006 to 2022, a period marked by three major economic shocks: the 2008 financial crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the ongoing cost-of-living crisis. Using a subjective measure of welfare, financial strain, we analyse...

As middle income countries grow they see an increase in demand for energy. To avoid extreme climate change as these countries develop, there will be a need to decarbonise the increased energy consumption as they grow. We use the PRICES microsimulation model to examine the impact of carbon...

While the body of literature on the non-take-up of public aid has grown substantially in recent years, a notable gap remains in the literature of non-take-up rates for student aid programs, where research is still extremely limited. This paper examines the non-take-up rate of Germany's federal...