Does the current account improve or deteriorate following a monetary policy expansion? We examine this issue theoretically and empirically. We show that a standard open economy DSGE model predicts that the current account response to a monetary policy shock depends on the degree of economic...

This paper considers the interdependence of monetary and macroprudential policy in a New Keynesian business cycle model under the zero lower bound constraint. Entrepreneurs borrow in nominal terms from banks and are subject to idiosyncratic default risk. The realized loan return to the bank...

This paper investigates how monetary policy interventions by the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve affect the stock market perception of bank systemic risk. In a first step, we identify monetary policy shocks using a structural VAR approach by exploiting the changes of the volatility...

We analyze the interaction between monetary policy in the US and the global economy, using a global vector autoregressive model with time-varying parameters and stochastic volatility (TVP-SV-GVAR). We find that a contractionary US monetary policy shock leads to a persistent fall in international...

The Flexible System of Global Models (FSGM) is a group of models developed by the Economic Modeling Division of the IMF for policy analysis. A typical module of FSGM is a multi-region, forward-looking semi-structural global model consisting of 24 regions. Using the three core modules focused on...

Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden form a tightly integrated region which has strong ties with the euro area as well as some exposure to Russia. Using the IMF’s Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal model (GIMF), we examine spillovers the region could face, focusing on possible...

The paper analyses the empirical relationship between bank risk and sovereign credit risk in the euro area. Using structural VAR with daily financial markets data for 2003-13, the analysis confirms two-way causality between shocks to sovereign risk and bank risk, with the former being overall...

Diese Dissertation beschäftigt sich mit den makroökonomischen Konsequenzen der Annahme heterogener Firmen. Die geldpolitischen Implikationen stehen dabei im Vordergrund. In den ersten beiden, theoretisch ausgerichteten Kapiteln liegt der Fokus auf der Tatsache, dass Firmen unterschiedlich...

Output gap estimates are subject to a wide range of uncertainty owing to data revisions and the difficulty in distinguishing between cycle and trend in real time. This is important given the central role in monetary policy of assessments of economic activity relative to capacity. We show that...

Russian monetary policy has been challenged by large and continuous private capital outflows and a sharp drop in oil prices during 2014, with both ongoings having put a significant depreciation pressure on the ruble and having led the central bank to eventually give up its exchange rate...

Our paper addresses the issue on the interaction between monetary and macroprudential policies in small open economies for different exchange rate regimes. The need for macroprudential policy arises from exacerbated macroeconomic fluctuations due to frictions in the financial system as in...

We study the impact of monetary policy on the supply of bank credit when bank lending is also denominated in foreign currencies. Accessing a comprehensive supervisory dataset from Hungary, we find that the supply of bank credit in a foreign currency is less sensitive to changes in domestic...

In this paper we estimate the effect of government consumption shocks on GDP using a panel of 21 developing economies. Our goal is to better understand the reasons for the low fiscal multipliers found in the literature by performing estimations for alternative exchange rate regimes,...

Economic research has considered Private Debt a determinant of GDP growth for years. By keeping this perspective, the objective of this work is to understand how much of the GDP response to a monetary shock is due to the variation of private debt. This is the marginal contribution of private...

In this paper we estimate the effect of government consumption shocks on GDP using a panel of 21 developing economies. Our goal is to better understand the reasons for the low fiscal multipliers found in the literature by performing estimations for alternative exchange rate regimes,...

Greater international economic interconnectedness over recent decades has been changing inflation dynamics. This paper presents evidence that the expansion of global value chains (GVCs), ie cross-border trade in intermediate goods and services, is an important channel through which global...

We document that observed international input-output linkages contribute substantially to synchronizing producer price inflation (PPI) across countries. Using a multi-country, industry-level dataset that combines information on PPI and exchange rates with international and domestic input-output...

In this paper we show how interbank market frictions can play an important role in propagating and enhancing the effects of shocks in a currency union, and discuss the efficacy of two unconventional policy measures; multi-period central bank refinance operations and large scale asset purchases....

This paper proposes a novel mechanism by which changes in the distribution of money holdings have real effects. Specifically, I develop a flexible-price model of segmented asset markets that generates real aggregate effects of monetary policy through the dependence of optimal markups on the...

We estimate the response of euro area sovereign bond yields to purchase operations under the ECB's Public Sector Purchase Programme (PSPP), using granular data on all PSPP-eligible securities at daily frequency. To avoid simultaneity bias in the estimated relationship between yields and purchase...

We use a behavioral macroeconomic model to analyze how structural reforms affect the economy in the short and in the long run. We consider two types of structural reforms. The first one increases the flexibility of wages and prices; the second one raises potential output in the economy. We find...

This paper uses a "trendy" approach to understand UK inflation dynamics. It focuses on the time series to isolate a low-frequency and slow-moving component of inflation (the trend) from deviations around this trend. We find that this slow-moving trend explains a substantial share of UK inflation...

We argue that the time-varying regional distribution of housing equity influences the aggregate consequences of monetary policy through its effects on mortgage refinancing. Using detailed loan-level data, we show that regional differences in housing equity affect refinancing and spending...

We ask whether recent changes in monetary policy due to the financial crisis will be temporary or permanent. We present evidence from two surveys - one of central bank governors, the other of academic specialists. We find that central banks in crisis countries are more likely to have resorted to...

Investment growth in emerging market and developing economies has slowed sharply since 2010. This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the causes and implications of this slowdown and presents a menu of policy responses to improve investment growth. It reports four main results. First, the...

Federal Reserve Chairman William McChesney Martin famously declared that the Federal Reserve "is in the position of the chaperone who has ordered the punch bowl removed just when the party was really warming up." This paper uses the punch bowl metaphor to analyze how the Federal Reserve can...

Dynamic factor models and external instrument identification are two recent advances in the empirical macroeconomic literature. This paper combines the two approaches in order to study the effects of monetary policy shocks. I use this novel framework to re-examine the effects found by Forni and...

In a highly interlinked global economy a key question for policy makers is how foreign shocks and policies transmit to the domestic economy. We develop a semi-structural multi-country model with rich real and financial channels of international shock propagation for the euro area, the US, Japan,...

This study tests for the state-dependent response of monetary policy to increases in overall financial stress and financial sector-specific stress across a panel of advanced and emerging economy central banks. We use a factor-augmented dynamic panel threshold regression model with (estimated)...

Nonbank financial institutions (NBFIs) have substantially increased their market share since 1980s. In spite of the growing importance of NBFIs, they have received much less attention in the monetary transmission mechanism. This paper examines if monetary policy affects NBFIs in the similar way...

This paper investigates the long-term determinants of Indian government bonds' (IGB) nominal yields. It examines whether John Maynard Keynes's supposition that short-term interest rates are the key driver of long-term government bond yields holds over the long-run horizon, after controlling for...