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Fiscal policy in a permanent liquidity trap : evidence from japan

Albonico, Alice; Ascari, Guido; Gobbi, Alessandro - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015595091

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Fiscal policy in a permanent liquidity trap : evidence from Japan

Albonico, Alice; Ascari, Guido; Gobbi, Alessandro - 2026

Book / Working Paper

The Fiscal Multipliers Narrative of Sub-Saharan Africa

Abdel-Latif, Hany - 2026

This paper estimates the macroeconomic effects of fiscal consolidations in sub-Saharan Africa using a newly constructed narrative dataset of discretionary fiscal policy actions for 14 countries over 1990–2024. The dataset, documented in Abdel-Latif et. al. (2025), identifies fiscal measures...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015612675

PFR Fundamentals : Fiscal Multipliers

2026

The purpose of this note is to help mainstream fiscal multipliers in PFRs. It aims to provide guidance for estimating fiscal multipliers in developing countries by leveraging the World Bank’s macroeconomic and fiscal model (MFMod) to generate country-specific estimates. While other methods are...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015613927

Between theory and reality : growth analysis of Italy in the post-Keynesian framework

Arena, Federica - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015604696

Fiscal policies are not all alike : composition effects, regime switching and uncertainty

Creel, Jérôme; Ionta, Serena; Traficante, Guido - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015619795

Precautionary money demand in the economy's demand curve and in the fiscal and monetary multipliers : an extension

Pateiro-Rodríguez, Carlos; Martín-Bermúdez, Federico; … - 2026

This paper examines, through a modified aggregate demand curve, the reduction in equilibrium income caused by the presence of precautionary demand in the money demand function. Specifically, this paper rigorously analyses the transformation of the well-known fiscal and monetary policy...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015625880

Empirical assessment of budget multipliers for current and capital expenditures in Kazakhstan

Bukenov, Аmantay - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015638644

Network transmission of fiscal demand shocks in commodity-dependent economies

Uribe-Teran, Carlos; Zanoni, Wladimir; Grijalva, Diego F.; … - 2026

We study how procurement-driven fiscal contractions propagate through firm-to-firm pro- duction networks. The 2014 collapse in oil prices triggered a sharp fall in public procure- ment in Ecuador, generating an externally driven fiscal demand shock. Using administra- tive data covering the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015638760

The family multiplier : understanding delinquency and parent-adolescent interactions

Chan, Marc K.; Iyer, Sriya; Liu, Kai; Zhang, Anwen - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015655767

Fiscal policy transmission through production networks with heterogeneous households

McMiken, Shane; Müller, Tobias - 2026

We study how sector-specific fiscal policy propagates in an economy with heterogeneous households and production networks. We develop a multisector New Keynesian model in which input-output linkages interact with differences in households' marginal propensities to consume (MPCs). We show that...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015655781

Expansionary austerity in Europe : finally an oxymoron?

Fontana, Olimpia; Sau, Lino - 2026

The expansionary austerity thesis (EAT) emerged and established itself in the 1990s, based on theoretical and empirical research, and was rapidly incorporated into macroeconomic theory. In a nutshell, fiscal consolidations, aimed at stabilising or lowering the public debt-to-GDP ratio, can...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015650697

Foreign troops, local economies : the economic effects of US withdrawals from Germany

Kochems, Johannes; Schmidhäuser, Jakob - 2026 - This version: May 21, 2026

This paper analyzes the local economic impacts of troop deployments. We exploit variation from the historic large-scale US troop withdrawal from Germany triggered by the end of the Cold War, to estimate the effect on local labor markets and public finances. We use administrative data provided by...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015651527

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Foreign troops, local economies : the economic effects of US withdrawals from Germany

Kochems, Johannes; Schmidhäuser, Jakob - 2026 - This version: May 21, 2026

Edition: This version: May 21, 2026

Book / Working Paper

Adjustment through revenue or spending? : fiscal adjustment scenarios based on estimated multiplier effects

Sanches, Marina da Silva; Santos, Hiaman Rodrigues Silva; … - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015633245

Estimates of government spending multipliers in Australian data

Reynolds, Zac; Fisher, Lance A. - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015633899

On the empirical (ir)relevance of the zero lower bound constraint : the case of fiscal multiplier in Japan

Iiboshi, Hirokuni; Iwata, Yasuharu; Tsuruga, Takayuki - 2026

Japanís prolonged ZLB period alongside substantial debt accumulation makes it a compelling laboratory for testing whether fiscal multipliers differ across normal and ZLB periods. This paper investigates this question using a sign- and zero-restricted TVP-VAR that jointly identifies fiscal rules...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015634030

The economic effects of rearmament : evidence from Nazi Germany

Chambon, Lionel - 2026

Using novel archival data on the German Luftwaffe, I estimate the causal effect of military spending on unemployment in Nazi Germany between 1932 and 1936. Exploiting cross-district variation of supplier locations, I estimate the impact of military procurement on local labor market outcomes. I...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015664850

Fiscal policy and sectoral spillovers in open-economy HANK

De Beauffort, Charles; Rannenberg, Ansgar - 2026

Government spending falls disproportionately on non-tradable services. We show empirically that government spending shocks stimulate private consumption along with sizable spillovers to the goods sector and a relative decline in goods prices. We rationalize these findings with a two-sector...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015667299

Subcontracting in federal spending : micro and macro implications

Park, Geumbi; Zhou, Xiaoqing; Zubairy, Sarah - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015546314

An estimation and decomposition of the government investment multiplier

Clemens, Marius; Michelsen, Claus; Rieth, Malte - 2025

We construct a narrative instrument for government investment from official records in Germany. Using structural vector autoregressions, we document a significant crowding-in of private investment and an output multiplier of roughly 2. Then, we match a New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015207271

Fiscal stimulus with supply constraints

Fornaro, Luca - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015548922

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Fiscal stimulus with supply constraints

Fornaro, Luca - 2024

Book / Working Paper

Fiscal stimulus with supply constraints

Fornaro, Luca - 2024

Book / Working Paper

Are fiscal multipliers state dependent? : insights from an agent-based model

Marco Amendola, Marco; Pereira, Marcelo C. - 2025

The paper examines the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy under varying economic conditions. The analysis is conducted using a closed-economy agent-based model, where macroeconomic outcomes of fiscal intervention emerge from the bottom up as the result of interactions between heterogeneous...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015372051

Applying machine learning to input-output analysis : a new perspective on identifying key Australian industries

Faridzad, Ali - 2025

This article employs two alternative approaches based on input-output tables to re-evaluate key Australian industries and their interconnections. The first approach utilizes traditional linkages, while the second approach employs machine learning methods. Data come from the OECD database for...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015374200

Forecasting a better future : the case for a "bucket approach" to fiscal multipliers and more

Caddick, Dominic; Kumar, K. Chaitanya - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015332118

Enhancing economic literacy through causal diagrams

Pavlov, Oleg V.; Smirnova, Natalia V.; Smirnova, Elena V. - 2025

A literacy-targeted approach to economic instruction draws on insights from cognitive science. It highlights that students process complex economic information by constructing and modifying schemas that represent economic material. Following this approach, we developed a set of instructional...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015189854

Guns and growth : the economic consequences of defense buildups

Ilzetzki, Ethan - 2025

This paper investigates how an increase in military expenditures affects an economy. It is written in the context of rising geopolitical tensions that have spurred increased military spending in the United States, Europe, and other economic areas. It draws on a large literature in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015198442

The role of fiscal rules for spending multipliers in European Union countries

Sznajderska, Anna; Torój, Andrzej; Chmura, Rafał - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015359827

On the impact of next generation EU funds : a regional synthetic control method approach

Aparicio-Pérez, Daniel; Espinosa, Priscila; Pavia, … - 2025

The European Union's Next Generation EU (NGEU) program and its implementation through the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) were conceived with the premise of promoting a coordinated fiscal response within the European Union to address the challenges arising from the COVID-19 crisis. The...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015394666

Debt maturity and government spending multipliers

Ghomi, Morteza; Mankart, Jochen; Oikonomou, Rigas; … - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015573505

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Debt maturity and government spending multipliers

Ghomi, Morteza; Mankart, Jochen; Oikonomou, Rigas; … - 2025

Book / Working Paper

Spatial dependence of European immigration flows

Czaika, Mathias; Bohnet, Heidrun; Soto-Nishimura, Akira - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015470215

Fiscal multipliers and political fragmentation

Duque Gabriel, Ricardo; Klein, Mathias; Nöller, Marvin - 2025

This paper provides novel empirical evidence on how political fragmentation shapes the fiscal transmission mechanism. Using data from 16 OECD countries (1978-2019) and narrative accounts to identify exogenous fiscal interventions, we show that when political fragmentation is high, the fiscal GDP...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015472130

Regional dependencies and local spillovers : insights from commuter flows

Krause, Melanie; Kripfganz, Sebastian - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015473036

GenAI, growth, and the multi-sector multipliers

Kuusi, Tero - 2025

This paper analyzes the macroeconomic impact of Generative Artificial Intelligence (GenAI) on the Finnish economy, integrating recent literature and empirical evidence into a quantitative multi-sector general equilibrium model. The results indicate that, over a ten-year horizon, GenAI adoption...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015447151

Shock propagation in LSTM multivariate time series systems

Chan-Lau, Jorge A.; Quach, Toan Long - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015448581

Fiscal Multipliers in Mongolia

Poghosyan, Tigran - 2025

Fiscal policy plays an important macroeconomic role in Mongolia. On the one hand, fiscal expansion is seen as a measure to boost aggregate demand. On the other hand, import leakages mitigate the impact of fiscal expansion on growth. Applying a structural vector autoregressive model, this paper...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015451919

Cyclical Fiscal Multipliers : Policy Mix and Financial Friction Puzzle

Aligishiev, Zamid - 2025

This paper investigates dynamic relationships between U.S. government expenditure multipliers and the economy's cyclical position from 1949 to 2018 using a Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregression (TVP-VAR) model. We challenge the existing literature, which predominantly relies on predefined...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015452218

Public debt, iMPCs & fiscal policy transmission

2025

This paper investigates the relationship between public debt and the effectiveness of fiscal policy, presenting evidence of an inverse relationship between government debt and fiscal multipliers. To explain the results, I develop and calibrate a HANK model tailored to the U.S. economy. The model...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015452709

Fiscal Multipliers in Resource-Rich Economies : Evidence from the Gulf Countries

Chattha, Muhammad Khudadad; Kawalec, Tobias - 2025

This paper utilizes the unique dynamics of fiscal budgeting in countries with a large hydro-carbon sector to estimate fiscal multipliers. The main identifying assumption rests on the idea that exogenously identified global hydrocarbon demand shocks can be considered plausible instruments for the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015454224

Incorporating economic multipliers in a bid adjustment algorithm for public food procurement decision making

Schmit, Todd M.; Liu, Xiaoyan - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015454684

The local job multipliers of green industrialization

Frattini, Federico Fabio; Vona, Francesco; Bontadini, … - 2025

What are the job multipliers of the green industrialization? We tackle this question within EU regions over the period 2003-2017, building a novel measure of green manufacturing penetration that combines green production and regional employment data. We estimate local job multipliers of green...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015410096

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The local job multipliers of green industrialization

Frattini, Federico Fabio; Vona, Francesco; Bontadini, … - 2025

Book / Working Paper

The local job multipliers of green industrialization

Frattini, Federico Fabio; Vona, Francesco; Bontadini, … - 2025

Book / Working Paper

Estimating Fiscal Multiplier for Qatar : Qatar

Miyajima, Ken - 2025

Econometric results suggest that Qatar's strong capital spending multiplier became less impactful as the stock of capital rose to a high level, likely as the marginal impact declined. This supports Qatar's strategy to shifts the State's role to an enabler of private sector-led growth, focusing...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015411389

A fiscal impact measure for Austria

Moser, Mathias; Reiss, Lukas - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015413944

Government spending multipliers and financial fragility in Italy

Frangiamore, Francesco; Matarrese, Marco Maria - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015431978

Moving from symmetric to asymmetric nexus between oil price, exchange rate and government spending in developing economy with focus on economic sustainability

Babatunde, David; Bekun, Festus Victor; Börü, Mustafa … - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015434744

Breaking down the US employment multiplier using micro-level data

Briganti, Edoardo; Dwyer, Holt; Duque Gabriel, Ricardo; … - 2025 - Last updated: November 10, 2025

We use restricted data from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages to link the universe of US establishments with the universe of contractors in the Federal Procurement Data System. Leveraging detailed institutional knowledge of federal acquisitions, we construct a new dataset of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015435812

Green fiscal multipliers with different sovereign debt trajectories in EU countries

Afonso, António; Alves, José; Ferrara, Alessio; … - 2025

This paper estimates the fiscal multipliers of green public spending using a linear Bayesian Panel VAR and a Smooth Transition VAR framework, with quarterly data for the period 1995Q1-2022Q4 for EU member states. We group EU member states based on similar- ities in debt trajectories and green...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015438611

The fiscal multiplier in presence of unconventional monetary policy : evidence for 17 OECD countries

Romero, Daniel Fernández - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015439193

Multiplier effects of ferry transportation development on Indonesia's medium-term economy by using input-output approach : a case study of Samosir Island

Marpaung, Edward; Wunas, Shirly; Jinca, Muhammad-Yamin; … - 2025

This research investigates the multiplier effect of ferry transportation development on the medium-term economy of Samosir Island from 2016 to 2022. The study will provide insights into the implications of ferry transportation for the economies of rural or remote regions like Samosir Island. The...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015439214

Monetary policy and heterogeneity : an analytical framework

Bilbiie, Florin - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015458916

Fiscal multipliers in India : a macro-model linking human development, growth and distribution

Bose, Sukanya; Banerjee, Saikat - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015459568

Locally adaptive modeling of unconditional heteroskedasticity

Fengler, Matthias; Jäger, Bruno; Okhrin, Ostap - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015426963