In this paper we develop a novel semi-nonparametric panel copula model with external covariates for the study of wage rank dynamics. We focus on nonlinear dependence between the current and lagged worker's ranks in the wage residuals distribution, conditionally on individual characteristics. We...

Systemic susceptibility highlights the extent to which a banking sector is sensitive to negative shocks. Policymakers and regulators' objective is to avoid financial crises, and even though they can somewhat control local conditions, internationally transmitted crises are difficult to tackle....

The question of whether environmental, social, and governance investments outperform or underperform other conventional financial investments has been debated in the literature. In this study, we compare the volatility of rates of return of selected ESG indices and conventional ones and...

We propose a novel copula approach to producing density forecasts of economic aggregates combining models using disaggregate data. Our copula approach is more flexible compared to existing techniques, because it is applicable to any econometric model that produces density forecasts. We construct...

Previous evidence shows that better insurance coverage increases medical expenditure. However, formal studies on the effect of spending on health outcomes, and especially mental health, are lacking. To fill this gap, we reanalyze data from the Rand Health Insurance Experiment and estimate a...

Stock and oil relationship is usually time-varying and depends on the current economic conditions. In this study, we propose a new Dynamic Stochastic Mixed data frequency sampling (DSM) copula model, that decomposes the stock-oil relationship into a short-run dynamic stochastic component and a...

This paper attempted to apply an EVT-based pairwise copula method for modelling risk interaction between foreign exchange rates and equity indices of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) and to model the dependence structure of the underlying assets with some selected listed stock indices. We...

Tail risk is a classic topic in stressed portfolio optimization to treat unprecedented risks, while the traditional mean-variance approach may fail to perform well. This study proposes an innovative semiparametric method consisting of two modeling components: the nonparametric estimation and...

This paper features an analysis of cryptocurrencies and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on their effectiveness as a portfolio diversification tool and explores the correlations between the continuously compounded returns on Bitcoin, Ethereum and the S&P500 Index using a variety of parametric...

Copula modelling is a popular tool in analysing the dependencies between variables. Copula modelling allows the investigation of tail dependencies, which is of particular interest in risk and survival applications. Copula modelling is also of specific interest to economic and financial modelling...

This study investigates the tail dependence structures of sovereign credit default swaps (CDSs) and three global risk factors in BRICS countries using a copula approach, which is popular for capturing the “true” tail dependence based on the “distribution-adjusted” joint marginals. The...

How can investors unlock the returns on the electric vehicle industry? Available investment choices range from individual stocks to exchange traded funds. We select six representative assets and characterize the time-varying joint distribution of their returns by copula-GARCH models. They...

The performance of volatility-based trading strategies depends, among other factors, on the asset selection and the associated risk preference. For this study, we conducted a representative survey for Germany to determine the asset preferences of individuals with lower-risk and higher-risk...

Risk evaluation is a forecast, and its validity must be backtested. Probability distribution forecasts are used in this work and allow for more powerful validations compared to point forecasts. Our aim is to use bivariate copulas in order to characterize the in-sample copulas and to validate...

To improve the dynamic assessment of risks of speculative assets, we apply a Markov switching MGARCH approach to portfolio forecasting. More specifically, we take advantage of the flexible Markov switching copula multivariate GARCH (MS-C-MGARCH) model of Fülle and Herwartz (2021). As an...

This paper aims to analyze the effect on measured inequality and its structure of using administrative data instead of survey data. Different analyses are carried out based on the Spanish Survey on Income and Living Conditions (ECV) that continued to ask households for their income despite...

The cryptocurrency market offers significant investment opportunities but also entails higher risks as compared to other asset classes. This article aims to analyse the financial risk characteristics of individual cryptocurrencies and of a broad cryptocurrency market portfolio. We construct a...

We analyze how earnings dynamics changed in the US after the financial crisis of 2007- 2009. Differently from most models for earnings mobility, we allow persistence patters to depend semi-nonparametrically on both the past individual position in the distribution and on a set of individual-level...

Dependent Tail Value-at-Risk, abbreviated as DTVaR, is a copula-based extension of Tail Value-at-Risk (TVaR). This risk measure is an expectation of a target loss once the loss and its associated loss are above their respective quantiles but bounded above by their respective larger quantiles. In...

A new Archimedean copula family is presented that was derived from the SAHARA utility function introduced in the economic literature in 2011. Its properties are discussed, and its flexibility and versatility are demonstrated. It is left tail decreasing or right tail increasing, but unlike...

This paper investigates whether currency risk is priced differently in the different sectors (industrial, financial, and basic materials) of equity markets in a sample of developed United States of America (USA) and developing economies (Brazil, India, Poland, and South Africa). The paper makes...

We propose several numerical algorithms to compute the distribution of gross loss in a positively dependent catastrophe insurance portfolio. Hierarchical risk aggregation is performed using bivariate copula trees. Six common parametric copula families are studied. At every branching node, the...

Blockchain and cryptocurrency are gradually going mainstream with new cryptocurrencies introduced every single day. The speculative nature of these digital assets expose their prices to large fluctuations. Trading these crypto-assets necessitate an adequate understanding of this emerging market...

This paper proposes a novel event-based simulation model for assessing the explicit demand response potential of electric vehicle (EV) charging networks. The model utilizes multivariate copulas in generation of realistic artificial charging events that retain the complex dependency structures...

This paper studies how to construct and compare various optimal portfolio frame-works for investors in the context of the Vietnamese stock market. The aim of the study is to help investors to find solutions for constructing an optimal portfolio strategy using modern investment frameworks in the...

This study proposes a GARCH copula quantile regression model to capture the downside and upside tail dependence between oil price change and stock market returns at different risk levels. In the model, ten copulas are provided to measure the nonlinearity of the tail dependence with the marginal...

Distributed sensor networks with hundreds of antenna arrays are widely utilized for radar detection systems. When observations of network nodes are correlated, an optimal copula-based fusion (termed CBF) rule is designed for correlated binary decisions under the Neyman-Pearson (NP) framework....

We introduce a new stochastic order for the tail dependence between random variables. We then study different measures of tail dependence which are monotone in the proposed order, thereby extending various known tail dependence coefficients from the literature. We apply our concepts in an...

Accurate estimation of different risk measures for financial portfolios is of utmost importance equally for financial institutions as well as regulators, however, many existing models fail to incorporate any high dimensional dependence structures adequately. To overcome this problem and capture...

Estimating the market risk is conditioned by the fat tail of the distribution of returns. But the tail index depends on the threshold of this distribution fat tail. We propose a methodology based on the decomposition of the series into positive outliers, Gaussian central part and negative...

Crude oil, "the blood of industry" plays an irreplaceable role in the field of industrial production. The fluctuation in oil prices directly affects metal mining and processing, which in turn affects the dynamic development of the nonferrous metal market. This study examines the dynamic...

Copulas are a quite flexible and useful tool for modeling the dependence structure between two or more variables or components of bivariate and multivariate vectors, in particular, to predict losses in insurance and finance. In this article, we use the VineCopula package in R to study the...

Recent pension reforms in Europe have implemented a link between retirement age and life expectancy. The accurate forecast of life tables and life expectancy is hence paramount for governmental policy and financial institutions. We developed a multi-population mortality model which includes a...