Evidence since the XIX century shows that whereas the demand for M1 is uniformly stable (Benati, Lucas, Nicolini, and Weber, 2021), the demand for broader aggregates is stable under monetary regimes making inflation strongly mean-reverting-such as the Gold Standard and inflation-targeting-but it...

The natural, equilibrium, or neutral Interest rate - or short r* - has been controversial among economists ever since it was introduced almost 150 years ago. As a conceptual tool that cannot be directly measured but only estimated by models, its value depends on the relevance for explaining...

The natural, equilibrium, or neutral Interest rate - or short r* - has been controversial among economists ever since it was introduced almost 150 years ago. As a conceptual tool that cannot be directly measured but only estimated by models, its value depends on the relevance for explaining...

We explore the natural rate of interest, shortly r*, in emerging economies. If economic growth originates from convergence, then growth, say, from technological progress will be lower than we find in the data and, hence, r* will be lower. Ignoring convergence upwardly biases our estimates of r*...

News - anticipated changes of an economy's fundamentals - drive the business cycle. Climate change is big news: it will impact the economy profoundly, but its full effect will take time to materialize. To better understand the transmission of news, this paper focuses on climate-change...

The European Central Bank (ECB) strives to maintain inflation at a 2% target rate, yet the Euro area's diverse economies pose challenges to achieving this goal with a single nominal interest rate. Effective monetary policy transmission hinges on synchronizing the Natural Rate of Interest (NRI)...

The European Central Bank (ECB) strives to maintain inflation at a 2% target rate, yet the Euro area's diverse economies pose challenges to achieving this goal with a single nominal interest rate. Effective monetary policy transmission hinges on synchronizing the Natural Rate of Interest (NRI)...

We explore the natural rate of interest, shortly r ∗ , in emerging economies. If economic growth originates from convergence, then growth, say, from technological progress will be lower than we find in the data and, hence, r ∗ will be lower. Ignoring convergence upwardly biases our estimates...

News - anticipated changes of an economy's fundamentals - drive the business cycle. Climate change is big news: it will impact the economy profoundly, but its full effect will take time to materialize. To better understand the transmission of news, this paper focuses on climate-change...

Long-term borrowing costs have been on a path of near continuous decline for the last several decades, with huge consequences for asset values, government finances, borrowers and savers. To shed light on why, we have estimated a global model that brings together an extensive set of drivers of...

News drive expectations about the economy's future fundamentals. Climate change is big news: it will impact the economy profoundly but the effect will take some time to materialize in full. Climate-change expectations thus offer a unique opportunity to study the impact of news on the business...

We argue that Gibson's paradox has nothing to do with the Gold Standard per se, and it rather originates from low-frequency variation in the natural rate of interest under certain types of monetary regimes that make inflation I(0) and (approximately) zero-mean. Although the Gold Standard is the...

This paper applies the Holston-Laubach-Williams methodology to estimate the natural rate of interest for Brazil.

News drive expectations about the economy's future fundamentals. Climate change is big news: it will impact the economy profoundly but the effect will take some time to materialize in full. Climate-change expectations thus offer a unique opportunity to study the impact of news on the business...

We argue that Gibson's paradox has nothing to do with the Gold Standard per se, and it rather originates from low-frequency variation in the natural rate of interest under certain types of monetary regimes that make inflation I(0) and (approximately) zero-mean. Although the Gold Standard is the...

What are the effects of tariff changes and trade conflicts on the natural rate of interest? This article investigates this question, using a multicountry, heterogeneous-agent trade model in which the natural rate of interest is determined by firms' demand for capital and households' supply of...