This article forms an attempt to expand the ability of online search queries to predict initial jobless claims in the United States and further explore the intricacies of Google Trends. In contrast to researchers who used only a small number of search queries or limited themselves to job agency...

This paper studies how household inequality shapes the effects of the zero lower bound (ZLB) on nominal interest rates on aggregate dynamics. To do so, we consider a heterogeneous agent New Keynesian (HANK) model with an occasionally binding ZLB and solve for its fully nonlinear stochastic...

In the euro area, monetary policy is conducted by a single central bank for 20 member countries. However, countries are heterogeneous in their economic development, including their inflation rates. This paper combines a New Keynesian model and a neural network to assess whether the European...

Over the most recent couple of years, the Internet of Things and other empowering innovations have been logically utilized for digitizing the vegetable supply chain (VSC). Background: The unpredictable examples and complexity inserted in enormous data dimensions present a test for an orderly...

Economists typically make simplifying assumptions to make the solution and estimation of their highly complex models feasible. These simplifications include approximating the true nonlinear dynamics of the model, disregarding aggregate uncertainty or assuming that all agents are identical. While...

Building on an economic model of rational Bitcoin mining, we measured the carbon footprint of Bitcoin mining power consumption using feed-forward neural networks. We found associated carbon footprints of 2.77, 16.08 and 14.99 MtCO2e for 2017, 2018 and 2019 based on a novel bottom-up approach,...

The curse of dimensionality problem refers to a set of troubles arising when dealing with huge amount of data as happens, e.g., applying standard numerical methods to solve partial differential equations related to financial modeling. To overcome the latter issue, we propose a Deep Learning...

Machine learning (ML) is a novel method that has applications in asset pricing and that fits well within the problem of measurement in economics. Unlike econometrics, ML models are not designed for parameter estimation and inference, but similar to econometrics, they address, and may be better...

In the euro area, monetary policy is conducted by a single central bank for 19 member countries. However, countries are heterogeneous in their economic development, including their inflation rates. This paper combines a New Keynesian model and a neural network to assess whether the European...

Most factor-based forecasting models for the term structure of interest rates depend on a fixed number of factor loading functions that have to be specified in advance. In this study, we relax this assumption by building a yield curve forecasting model that learns new factor decompositions...

In this paper, a feed-forward artificial neural network (ANN) is used to price Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) Top 40 European call options using a constructed implied volatility surface. The prices generated by the ANN were compared to the prices obtained using the Black-Scholes (BS) model....

This paper studies method of simulated moments (MSM) estimators that are implemented using Bayesian methods, specifically Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). Motivation and theory for the methods is provided by Chernozhukov and Hong (2003). The paper shows, experimentally, that confidence intervals...

While traditional empirical models using determinants like size and trade costs are able to predict RTA formation reasonably well, we demonstrate that allowing for machine detected non-linear patterns helps to improve the predictive power of RTA formation substantially. We employ machine...

Using neural networks, the present study replicates previous results on the prediction of student dropout obtained with decision trees and logistic regressions. For this purpose, multilayer perceptrons are trained on the same data as in the initial study. It is shown that neural networks lead to...

Long-term ratings of companies are obtained from public data plus some additional nondisclosed information. A model based on data from firms' public accounts is proposed to directly obtain these ratings, showing fairly close similitude with published results from Credit Rating Agencies. The...

We use machine learning methods to predict stock return volatility. Our out-of-sample prediction of realised volatility for a large cross-section of US stocks over the sample period from 1992 to 2016 is on average 44.1% against the actual realised volatility of 43.8% with an R2 being as high as...

In the past 25 years, computer scientists and statisticians developed machine learning algorithms capable of modeling highly nonlinear transformations and interactions of input features. While actuaries use GLMs frequently in practice, only in the past few years have they begun studying these...

This paper proposes an approximation method to create an optimal continuous-time portfolio strategy based on a combination of neural networks and Monte Carlo, named NNMC. This work is motivated by the increasing complexity of continuous-time models and stylized facts reported in the literature....

In this paper, we propose a general mathematical model for analyzing yield data. The data analyzed in this paper come from a characteristic corn field in the upper midwestern United States. We derive expressions for statistical moments from the underlying stochastic model. Consequently, we...

Financial indicators are the most used variables in measuring the business performance of companies, signaling about the financial position, comprehensive income, and other significant reporting aspects. In a competitive environment, the performance measurement model allows performing...

Predicting if a client is worth giving a loan-credit scoring-is one of the most essential and popular problems in banking. Predictive models for this goal are built on the assumption that there is a dependency between the client's profile before the loan approval and their future behavior....

The stock market is characterized by extreme fluctuations, non-linearity, and shifts in internal and external environmental variables. Artificial intelligence (AI) techniques can detect such non-linearity, resulting in much-improved forecast results. This paper reviews 148 studies utilizing...

A constant in the business world is the frequent movement of customers joining or abandoning companies’ services and products. The customer is one of the company’s most important assets. Reducing the customer abandonment rate has become a matter of survival and, at the same time, the most...