In April 2013, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) introduced an inflation target of 2% with the aim of overcoming deflation and achieving sustainable economic growth. But due to lower international oil prices, it was unable to achieve this target and was forced to take further measures. Hence, in February...

Starting in late 2008, the U.S. production of tight oil surged, causing a renaissance in the U.S. oil sector that few industry analysts had anticipated. This tight oil boom reduced the dependence of the United States on petroleum imports and allowed it to become a major exporter of gasoline and...

Russian monetary policy has been challenged by large and continuous private capital outflows and a sharp drop in oil prices during 2014, with both ongoings having put a significant depreciation pressure on the ruble and having led the central bank to eventually give up its exchange rate...

We analyze the global relationship between oil prices, commodity-specific financial marketshocks and economic activity by means of Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) models for the period 1996 - 2015. For the financial market variables in our model, we use a breakdown of G-20 countries into...

This study provides analytical insight on modelling macroeconomic and oil price volatility in Nigeria. Mainly, the paper employed GARCH model and its variants (GARCH-M, EGARCH and TGARCH) with daily, monthly and quarterly data. The findings reveal that: all the macroeconomic variables considered...

Futures markets are a potentially valuable source of information about price expectations. Exploiting this information has proved difficult in practice, because time-varying risk premia often render the futures price a poor measure of the market expectation of the price of the underlying asset....

This study empirically examines the independent effects of stock market and banking sector development on economic growth in Nigeria over the period 1981-2014 using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to co-integration analysis. Controlling for the possible effects of crude oil...

This article contributes to the debate about the impact of the U.S. fracking boom on U.S. oil imports, on Arab oil exports, and on the global price of crude oil. First, I investigate the extent to which this oil boom has caused Arab oil exports to the United States to decline since late 2008....

This study empirically examines the relationship between financial intermediary development and economic growth in Nigeria over the period 1981–2011 using the auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to co-integration analysis. The results show that the relationship between financial...

This study investigates changes in the relationship between oil prices and the US economy from a long-term perspective. Although neither of the two series (oil price and GDP growth rates) presents structural breaks in mean, we identify different volatility periods in both of them, separately....

GDP forecasters face tough choices over which leading indicators to follow and which forecasting models to use. To help resolve these issues, we examine a range of monthly indicators to forecast quarterly GDP growth in a major emerging economy, Russia. Numerous useful indicators are identified...

This study examines the linkages between energy price and food prices over the period 2000-2016 by using a Panel-VAR model in the case of eight Asian economies, namely Bangladesh, the PRC, Indonesia, India, Japan, Sri Lanka, Thailand, and Viet Nam. Our results confirm that energy price (oil...

We study the effects of crude oil price shocks on the stock market volatility of the G7 economies. We rely on a structural VAR model to identify the causes underlying the oil price shocks and gauge the differential impact that oil supply and oil demand innovations have on financial volatility....

This study investigates the effects of oil price shocks on volatility of selected agricultural and metal commodities. To achieve this goal, we decompose an oil price shock to its underlying components, including macroeconomics and oil specific shocks. The applied methodology is the structural...

This paper provides an analysis of the link between the oil market and the U.S. stock market returns at the aggregate as well as industry levels. We empirically model oil price changes as driven by speculative demand shocks along with consumption demand and supply shocks in the oil market. We...

Starting in late 2008, the U.S. production of tight oil surged, causing a renaissance in the U.S. oil sector that few industry analysts had anticipated. This tight oil boom reduced the dependence of the United States on petroleum imports and allowed it to become a major exporter of gasoline and...

Russian monetary policy has been challenged by large and continuous private capital outflows and a sharp drop in oil prices during 2014, with both ongoings having put a significant depreciation pressure on the ruble and having led the central bank to eventually give up its exchange rate...

It is widely understood that the real price of globally traded commodities is determined by the forces of demand and supply. One of the main determinants of the real price of commodities is shifts in the demand for commodities associated with unexpected fluctuations in global real economic...

This paper investigates the relationship between oil prices (Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI)) and Kuwait Stock Exchange (KSE) prices at the sector level. In a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model, ten major sectors in Kuwait are studied using daily data from 3 January...

We explore the effect on U.S. real GDP growth of the sharp and sustained decline in the global price of crude oil and hence in the U.S. price of gasoline after June 2014. Our analysis suggests that this decline produced a cumulative stimulus of about 0.9 percentage points of real GDP growth by...

This paper reinvestigates the influence of oil price uncertainty on real economic activity in the U.S. using a four-variable VAR, GARCH-in-mean, asymmetric BEKK model. In contrast to previous studies in this area, the analysis focuses on business cycle fluctuations and we control for global...

The transmission of oil price shocks has been a question of central interest in macroeconomics since the 1970s. There has been renewed interest in this question after the large and persistent fall in the real price of oil in 2014-16. In the context of this debate, Ramey (2017) makes the striking...

Background: The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of the oil price and its volatility on the stock market of Pakistan before and after the 2007 financial crisis period. Methods: The analyses are carried out on daily data for the period from July 31, 2000 to July 31, 2014. This study...

This paper presents a comprehensive cross-country database of fiscal space, broadly defined as the availability of budgetary resources for a government to service its financial obligations. The database covers up to 200 countries over the period 1990-2016, and includes 28 indicators of fiscal...