The IMF conducted a Technical Assistance (TA) mission to assist the National Reserve Bank of Tonga (NRBT) in determining an appropriate policy rate and in implementing an effective liquidity management and forecasting framework. This TA mission serves as a follow-up to previous IMF TA, which...

The operation has been screened for climate and disaster risks and has been found to be highly exposed while risks to the operation's activities are moderate. Climate change is profoundly impacting the health of Pacific Islanders, particularly the large portion of the population with...

This paper provides a targeted analysis of ML/TF risks pertaining to remittances to Samoa, confirming limited risks, and discusses potential opportunities for streamlining applicable AML/CFT requirements to operationalize regional remittances risk assessments. Over the past decade, Samoa has...

This paper describes the recent work to strengthen the nowcasting capacity at the Central Bank of Samoa (CBS). It compiles available high-frequency datasets such as tourism receipts, agriculture market survey, remittances, among others, to nowcast real GDP in Samoa. Nowcasting enables the...

This paper investigates the short- and medium-term economic impacts of natural disasters, focusing on Pacific Island Countries (PICs) and using global high-frequency nightlight data in addition to macroeconomic data. In this paper, we identify significant short-term effects on growth following...

This paper customizes to the Tongan economy a macroeconomic model for medium-term quarterly projections of key macro variables (QPM): output, inflation, interest rate, and exchange rate. The model is calibrated to embody the specific attributes of the Tongan economy such as the persistence of...

The IMF conducted a Technical Assistance mission to assist the National Reserve Bank of Tonga (NRBT) in modernizing its monetary policy framework. The mission aimed to address persistent challenges such as excess liquidity and an inactive interbank market, which have impeded effective monetary...

The Samoan authorities have expressed strong interest in the Supply and Use Tables (SUT) to improve macroeconomic projections for policy purposes. The mission worked with Samoa Bureau of Statistics (SBS) staff to assess and adjust the Household Income and Expenditure Survey data; compile...

We examine growth strategies for the Pacific Island Countries (PICs) focusing on the role of tourism and diversification. First, we quantify the contribution of tourism to growth using panel regressions and we compute how much additional tourism would be needed for PICs to sustain comparators'...

Farewell to Single-Use Plastics in the Pacific is a World Bank-led series of analytics aimed at informing national and regional decision-making, policy formulation, and investment requirements focused on decreasing plastic imports, consumption, and plastic waste, and, consequently, on reducing...

The Samoan economy has bounced back strongly over the last two years, supported by a recovery in tourism. Fiscal surpluses, in part due to high grant flows, have helped the country emerge from the pandemic with enhanced buffers. At the same time, several longstanding and emerging...

This technical assistance (TA) report presents the outcomes of the multi-year National Reserve Bank of Tonga (NRBT) Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS) TA project, conducted between late-2021 and mid-2025 over a total of eleven missions, five in-person and six virtual. The project...

Tonga’s economy is expanding steadily, driven by stronger-than-expected grant inflows, elevated remittances, a rebound in tourism, and fiscal support for the reconstruction. Headline inflation has declined below the reference rate, driven by lower food and energy prices, but core inflation has...

Economic output and livelihoods in Pacific Island economies (PIEs) rely greatly on ocean-related sectors and products, known as the "Blue Economy". Yet, marine ecosystems are under mounting pressure of climate change and human degradation, exposing PIEs to very large risks, while they have only...

Tonga's economic activity has strengthened, bolstered by consistent remittance flows, continued tourism recovery, and robust construction activities, despite a fall in agricultural output. The potential for a stronger recovery has, however, been hindered by supply-side constraints including...

The departmental paper, "Rise of Digital Money: Implications for Pacific Island Countries," delves into the fast-evolving landscape of digital money in a diverse region of extremes in size, remoteness and dispersion, highlighting its significant macroeconomic and financial consequences. It...

When parents migrate from home to another place and leave their children behind, it can have a large influence on their children. This study explores the relationship between parental migration and the learning outcomes of left-behind children aged 7-14 in Pacific Island economies, particularly...

The background of high remittance costs and countermeasures against the issue has drawn the attention of policymakers in the Pacific island countries in maximizing the benefits of migration and remittances on their economic development. We use a newly collected household survey about temporary...

Pacific developing member countries (DMCs) depend heavily on international tourism, which can promote merchandise exports by reducing trade costs. This paper empirically analyzes tourist inflows as a determinant of merchandise exports for Pacific DMCs by deploying a gravity model technique....

This note provides a deep dive into the quality of nighttime lights (NTL) data for Pacific Island Countries (PICs). It explores their potential to generate and complement regional socio-economic statistics. NTL data has been widely used as a proxy of economic activity. It has been used to both...

Climate change poses an existential threat to many islands in the Pacific. Small island states in the regionare increasingly vulnerable to extreme rainfall events, cyclones, changes in ocean circulation, and risingsea level. Climate data is a critical resource to help development actors prepare...

The systematic country diagnostic (SCD) covers a group of nine small Pacific Island countries (PIC-9) - Kiribati, Marshall Islands, the Federated States of Micronesia, Nauru, Palau, Samoa, Tonga, Tuvalu, and Vanuatu. The document updates the previous SCD, completed in 2016, and assesses the...