When and under what circumstances might people interpret a price increase as fair and acceptable is an important question in behavioral economics. We report the results of surveys we conducted in the US and Israel in 2020, a time when many prices increased following the spread of the COVID-19...

This paper studies how output prices are affected by increases in the minimum wage. To the best of our knowledge, we provide the first examination of how the prices of an entire menu of items at a single business adjust in response to a minimum wage increase. Using data we gather form a...

In the early 2020s sharp surge of inflation, unprecedentedly high levels of government debt and deficits fueled attention for the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level (FTPL). This theoretical framework for fiscally induced inflation is well-known and controversially discussed. However, empirical...

Recent economic developments in Argentina give rise to several interesting observations about the workings and effects of economic policies. Of particular interest, of course, are the dramatic changes in inflation as a consequence of the economic policies of the newly elected President Javier...

We implement a quantitative empirical test of the fiscal theory of the price level (FTPL) model via indirect inference, comparing it to a standard New Keynesian model. The FTPL alternative creates a serious instability problem because it triggers a 'doom loop'in which inflation pushes up...

We specify an empirical model of US inflation which has the dynamics of wage and price setting at its core. In the dynamic wage equation an equilibrium-correction term connects the wage level to industrial prosperity indicators. In that way, the role of wage setting in the dynamics of the...

We specify an empirical model of US inflation which has the dynamics of wage and price setting at its core. In the dynamic wage equation an equilibrium-correction term connects the wage level to industrial prosperity indicators. In that way, the role of wage setting in the dynamics of the...

This paper develops a Bayesian VAR model to identify three structural shocks driving the European gas market: demand, supply and inventory shocks. We document how gas price fluctuations have a heterogeneous pass-through to euro area prices depending on the underlying shock driving them. The...

Inflationary processes are closely linked to wage-price spirals - such spirals can be triggered by many factors, including natural resource price shocks, depreciation and inflationary demand. Empirically, the correlation between changes in nominal unit labour costs and the price level is strong...

The goal of this paper is twofold. First, we wish to better explain the relationship between Sargent and Wallace's (1981) unpleasant monetarist arithmetic, the closely connected fiscal theory of the price level (FTPL), and the monetarist view of inflation. Second, we discuss how the recent...

We analyze various determinants of the average price level using a strictly mathematical approach. Starting with the microeconomic perspective, we review the effect of demand shifters such as consumer income and the level of advertising on the average price level in a simple partial market...

This paper studies price stability and debt sustainability when the real rate exceeds trend growth (r g) in a New Keynesian model with endogenous technology growth through R&D. Endogenous growth constitutes a self-financing mechanism for deficits which backs debt and attenuates fiscal...

We implement a quantitative empirical test of the fiscal theory of the price level (FTPL) model via indirect inference, comparing it to a standard New Keynesian model. The FTPL alternative creates a serious instability problem because it triggers a 'doom loop'in which inflation pushes up...

The research employs Bayesian Vector Autoregressions with hierarchical priors to analyze the intricate economic implications of fiscal policy shocks on inflation, monetary policy, and fiscal authorities in the context of South Africa. The study explores data spanning from 1979 to 2022. Contrary...

We study the global dynamics of the fully stochastic nonlinear version of the New Keynesian model and analyze the efficacy of various policies as equilibrium selection tools in this context. First, we unveil a new class of equilibria, characterized by selffulfilled beliefs about output...

Ein Versagen des Preismechanismus im Gasmarkt ist nicht ausgeschlossen. Der Beitrag erläutert, wie es zu einem Marktzusammenbruch kommen kann und welche Auswirkungen bereits die Möglichkeit eines Marktkollapses haben kann. Es wird gezeigt, welche Elemente ein ökonomisches Regelwerk im...

Until the global financial crisis of 2007-08, inflation differentials in the euro area could beexplained by a general trend towards price level convergence; that is, countries with lowerprice levels tended to have higher inflation rates than countries with higher price levels.Since then, however,...

Ein Versagen des Preismechanismus im Gasmarkt ist nicht ausgeschlossen. Der Beitrag erläutert, wie es zu einem Marktzusammenbruch kommen kann und welche Auswirkungen bereits die Möglichkeit eines Marktkollapses haben kann. Es wird gezeigt, welche Elemente ein ökonomisches Regelwerk im...

How is the price level determined in a monetary union when the common monetary policy pegs the nominal interest rate? How are the price levels in the member countries determined? We extend the fiscal theory of the price level to the case of a heterogenous monetary union. Price level determinacy...

This paper aims to examine to what extent can investors’ sentiments extracted from social media content, specifically Twitter, improve the predictability of the S&P 500 price levels. Two Recurrent Neural Network models were built; the first one is solely based on historical records and...

In this paper we anaIyse price level differences in the euro area focusing on the impact of market structure and exploring how consumer behaviour can influence firms’ pricing. We consider two elements of market structure: producer market competition structure and the less explored structure of...

We estimate a multi-country multi-sector New Keynesian model to quantify the drivers of domestic inflation during 2020–2023 in several countries, including the United States. The model matches observed inflation together with sector-level prices and wages. We further measure the relative...

We study a model in which policy aims at aggregate price stability. A fiscal imbalance materializes that, if uncorrected, must cause inflation, but the imbalance may get corrected in the future with some probability. By maintaining price stability in the near term, monetary policy can buy time...

We estimate a multi-country, multi-sector New Keynesian model to quantify the drivers of domestic inflation during 2020-23 in several countries, including the United States. The model matches observed inflation together with sector-level prices and wages. We further measure the relative...

What are the unequal effects of changes in consumer prices on the cost What are the unequal effects of changes in consumer prices on the cost of living? In the context of changes in import prices (driven by, e.g., changes in trade costs or exchange rates), most analyses focus on variation across...

Until the global financial crisis of 2007-08, inflation differentials in the euro area could beexplained by a general trend towards price level convergence; that is, countries with lowerprice levels tended to have higher inflation rates than countries with higher price levels.Since then, however,...

Using a two-period model of a commodity market with a large number of atomistic consumers and two strategic sellers, we show that a speculator with access to storage can lower the market price while buying and raise the price while selling by clever use of limit, stop-loss, and market orders....