Search Results - subject_exact:"Prognose"

Grewenig, Elisabeth; Gründler, Klaus; Lergetporer, Philipp - 2026

Public support for policy interventions depends on citizens' beliefs about their likely effects. We examine how individuals form such beliefs by studying their predictions of experimental outcomes in a policy-relevant setting, and why their predictions differ from expert benchmarks. We elicit...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015617180

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Expertise and prediction accuracy

Grewenig, Elisabeth; Gründler, Klaus; Lergetporer, Philipp - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Iran-Krieg und Energiepreisschock gefährden wirtschaftliche Erholung : Prognose der wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung 2026/2027

Breuer, Christian; Dullien, Sebastian; Herzog-Stein, … - 2026 - Abgeschlossen am 18.03.2026

Die Weltwirtschaft wird im Jahr 2026 durch den Iran-Krieg und den damit einhergehenden sprunghaften Anstieg der Energiepreise spürbar belastet. Eine anhaltende Blockade der für den globalen Rohöl- und Gashandel wichtigen Straße von Hormus und die Zerstörung von Förderkapazitäten...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015618095

A predictive analytics approach for forecasting global stock index returns using deep learning techniques

Hu, Liang; Shen, Yinru - 2026

Accurately predicting stock index returns remains a critical yet complex task due to the inherent volatility of financial markets and the intricate temporal dependencies within financial time series. This study presents a robust machine learning framework to forecast the relative returns of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015654339

A cloud-enabled predictive analytics model for assessing health risks under climate variation

Rani, S. Sheeja; Aburukba, Raafat - 2026

The relationship between climatic conditions and disease spread is a crucial aspect of public health. Factors such as temperature, humidity, precipitation, seasonal changes, and air pollution directly and indirectly influence the transmission of infectious diseases, including respiratory...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015654340

Ausgabenprojektionen für das Gesundheitswesen bis 2060 : Alterung und Reformen

Colombier, Carsten; Lerch, Benjamin; Brändle, Thomas - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015619096

An in-depth assessment of the Central Bank of Malta's projections

Saliba, Maria Christine - 2026

This paper presents an in-depth analysis of the performance of the macroeconomic projections produced by Central Bank of Malta (CBM) staff. A real-time macroeconomic database published by the CBM is utilized, allowing for the computation of forecast errors based on the first official data...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015655280

Forecasting Kazakhstan's GDP based on a dynamic factor model with regularization

Akhmet, Alisher - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015609234

Direct Gaussian process predictive regressions with mixed frequency data

Hauzenberger, Niko; Marcellino, Massimiliano; … - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015609527

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Direct gaussian process predictive regressions with mixed frequency data

Hauzenberger, Niko; Marcellino, Massimiliano; … - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Establishment-level life cycle and analysts' forecasts

Basu, Sudipta; Dai, Xin; Lee, Caroline - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015609751

Forecasting commodity prices using futures : the case of copper

Cortazar, Gonzalo; Enberg, Mariavictoria; Ortega, Hector - 2026

This paper analyzes three forecasting methods for commodity spot prices and applies them to copper prices. The first method uses futures prices from either LME or COMEX. The second method uses analysts' consensus expectations, reported by Bloomberg. The third method jointly uses futures and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015611243

Enhancing predictive performance of LSTM-attention models for investment risk forecasting

Ladhari, Amina; Boubaker, Heni - 2026

For many decades, time-series forecasting has been applied to different problems by scientists and industries. Many models have been introduced for the purpose of forecasting. These advancements have significantly improved the accuracy and reliability of predictions, especially in complex...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015611300

Beating the "pros" with a semi-structural model of their own inflation forecasts

Alves, Sergio Afonso Lago; Areosa, Waldyr Dutra; … - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015625414

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Beating the "pros" with a semi-structural model of their own inflation forecasts

Alves, Sergio Afonso Lago; Areosa, Waldyr Dutra; … - 2026 - Last updated: March 10, 2026

Edition: Last updated: March 10, 2026

Book / Working Paper

Can we (still) predict future earnings? : the case of China and Indonesia

Sulistiawan, Dedhy; Rudiawarni, Felizia Arni; Sudibyo, … - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015614134

Outlier-robust evaluation of fixed-event macroeconomic survey expectations

Delis, Panagiotis; Kontogeorgos, Georgios - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015593667

Extrapolators and contrarians : forecast bias and individual investor stock trading

Andersen, Steffen; Dimmock, Stephen G.; Nielsen, Kasper M. - 2026

We test whether forecast bias affects individual investors' stock trading by combining bias measures from laboratory experiments with administrative trade data. Forecast bias is positively associated with past excess returns of purchased stocks: Compared to contrarians, extrapolators purchase...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015588367

Forecasting mutual fund performance : combining return-based with portfolio holdings-based predictors

Müller, Sebastian; Pugachyov, Nikolay; Weigert, Florian - 2026

We introduce a simple yet powerful method for enhancing mutual fund performance prediction by combining individual predictors into a composite predictor. This composite approach integrates information from 19 well-established return-based and portfolio holdings-based predictors from the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015591032

Riding out the storm : high-frequency data for enhanced oil market risk forecasting

Kuang, Wei - 2026

The stability of global energy markets is fundamental to effective energy strategy, influencing national policy and corporate investment decisions. Extreme volatility, such as during the COVID-19 pandemic, exposes the limitations of conventional risk assessment tools and undermines strategic...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015604096

Forecasting and managing price volatility in salmon production : a hybrid system using conformal prediction and dynamic hedging

Luna, Manuel; Pérez-Mon, Olaya; Becker, João Luiz - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015604682

Angebotskonzentration bei mineralischen Rohstoffen und Zwischenprodukten - potenzielle Preis- und Lieferrisiken : DERA-Rohstoffliste 2025

Bastian, Dennis; Bookhagen, Britta; Fritz, Alexander; … - 2026 - Datenstand: August 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015605007

Demand for dollars : evidence from survey expectations

Ballensiefen, Benedikt; Somogyi, Fabricius; Winterberg, … - 2026

We study the determinants of US dollar demand across market participants and traded instruments using survey-based exchange rate and macroeconomic expectations. Leveraging granular FX trading data and forward looking expectations, we present three results. First, currency investors increase...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015605616

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Demand for dollars : evidence from survey expectations

Ballensiefen, Benedikt; Somogyi, Fabricius; Winterberg, … - 2026 - This version: 26 April 2026

Edition: This version: 26 April 2026

Book / Working Paper

Advanced time series forecasting of electricity generation in Turkey : a comparative study using LSTM models, ARIMA, and PSO : optimized holt trend

Barak, Mensure Zuhal; Karakas, Esra - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015620374

From data to decision : predictive modeling of oil prices using AutoML and SHAP analysis

Belguith, Rihab - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015620429

Projecting inflation tail risks in a small open economy : some evidence from Singapore

Chow, Hwee-kwan; Lee, Jordan - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015624528

AFPC Representative Farm Economic Outlook for the 2026 FAPRI Baseline

Outlaw, Joe L.; Fischer, Bart L.; Knapek, George M.; … - 2026

The Agricultural and Food Policy Center (AFPC) at Texas A&M University develops and maintains data to simulate 91 representative crop, dairy, and livestock operations in major production areas of 30 states. The chief purpose of this analysis is to project the economic viability of those farms by...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015627297

How effective is mamba-augmented transformer for stock market price forecasting?

Shuvo, Md Shahria Sarker; Adib, Awsaf Tausif; Emon, Md … - 2026

Stock price forecasting remains challenging due to the non-linear, noisy, and non-stationary nature of financial time series. Although LSTMs and Transformer-based models have improved sequential modeling, their ability to scale efficiently to long financial sequences remains limited. Recently,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015628622

Mood in the market : forecasting IPO activity with music sentiment and LSTM

Ding, Qinxu; Guan, Chong; Yu, Yinghui - 2026

We examine whether aggregate "music mood" derived from globally popular songs can help forecast primary equity issuance. We build a Friday-anchored weekly panel that merges SEC EDGAR counts of priced Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) with features from the Spotify Daily Top 200 (audio descriptors...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015628658

Raumordnungsprognose 2045 : Erwerbspersonenprognose 2045

Maretzke, Steffen; Schlömer, Claus; Hoymann, Jana - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015638465

A glimpse on the futures of telecommunication networks : from market, technology and regulation trends to strategic foresight

Corazza, Giovanni Emanuele; Rinaldi, Ilaria; Coletto, Irene - 2026

This paper explores the current state, trends, and possible futures of the telecommunication ecosystem in Italy, outlining strategies for development. We adopt a combined methodology, integrating participatory scenario building through the Nominal Group Technique with a structured literature...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015639701

Econometric analysis and forecasts on exports of emerging economies from Central and Eastern Europe

Popescu, Liviu; Găman, Mirela; Mihai, Laurentiu Stelian; … - 2026

This study examines the evolution, heterogeneity, and short-term prospects of export performance in seven Central and Eastern European (CEE) economies-Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, and Slovakia-over the period 1995-2024. Using annual World Bank data, exports are...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015640540

Graph attention networks in exchange rate forecasting

Landmesser-Rusek, Joanna; Orłowski, Arkadiusz - 2026

Exchange rate forecasting is an important issue in financial market analysis. Currency rates form a dynamic network of connections that can be efficiently modeled using graph neural networks (GNNs). The key mechanism of GNNs is the message passing between nodes, allowing for better modeling of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015640548

The predictive content of U.S. Energy information administration oil market forecasts

Garratt, Anthony; Petrella, Ivan; Zhang, Yunyi - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015635001

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The predictive content of US energy information administration oil market forecasts

Garratt, Anthony; Petrella, Ivan; Zhang, Yunyi - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Global Trade Outlook and Statistics: March 2026 : March 2026

2026

The WTO's "Global Trade Outlook and Statistics" presents the WTO Secretariat's forecasts for world trade in 2026 and 2027. Breakdowns of merchandise and commercial services trade by sector and region are provided, together with details on leading traders. An analytical chapter looks at the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015641126

High-frequency inflation forecasting : a two-step machine learning methodology

Bolivar, Osmar - 2026

This study introduces a novel two-step machine learning methodology to generate high-frequency (daily and weekly) inflation forecasts in developing economies, where official statistics are typically available only at a monthly frequency and with delays. High-frequency forecasting here is...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015643940

Comparison of inflation expectations from surveys and markets across different horizons

Elizondo, Rocio; Carrillo, Julio A. - 2026

This paper compares inflation expectations from surveys and financial markets for the short-, medium-, and long-term horizons for Mexico. The analysis covers the period between 2000 and 2024, and compares their descriptive statistics, bias, efficiency, discrepancy, convergence level, and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015644030

Herding in the foreign exchange market

Allayioti, Anastasia; Garratt, Anthony - 2026

Using a recent and comprehensive data set covering nine of the most actively traded currencies on a monthly basis from 1995 to 2024, this paper explores the presence and potential drivers of herding behaviour in foreign exchange rate forecasts. The dataset features an average of 40-50...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015655766

Commodity Markets Outlook, April 2026

2026

The war in the Middle East represents a historic shock to commodity markets, resulting in the largest oil supply loss on record. Assuming the most acute phase of commodity trade disruptions ends shortly and shipping volumes gradually return to near prewar levels by October, average commodity...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015656090

ESG expertise and analysts' roles in capital markets

Wei, Yixin (Lucy); Cahan, Steven F.; Chen, Li - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015647541

On the wisdom of crowds (of economists)

Diebold, Francis X.; Mora, Aarón; Shin, Minchul - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015650517

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On the wisdom of crowds (of economists)

Diebold, Francis X.; Mora, Aarón; Shin, Minchul - 2025

Book / Working Paper

News-based inflation expectations : LLM-assisted measurement and forecasting

Tanisa Tawichsri; Suppawong Tuarob; Nuwat Nookhwun; … - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015650750

Predicting labour force types

Castro, Rui; Kim, Jiyoung; Lange, Fabian; Larivière, … - 2026

A small group of people accounts for a large majority of flows between labor market states and of spells in un- and non-employment. In this paper, we ask whether it is possible to identify those weakly attached to the labor market during their prime working-age years using information available...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015651972

Predicting stock market trends using convolutional neural networks : a deep learning approach

Özkul, Ege - 2026

Technical analysis aims to predict stock returns based on price and volume patterns and has seen growing adoption of machine learning methods. However, most approaches rely on hand-crafted features. This paper investigates whether deep learning applied to stock chart images can predict future...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015652027

Do technical indicators enhance the predictability of the equity market risk premium? : evidence from Korea

Lee, Hyunah; Chun, Sungju - 2026

Prior empirical studies suggest that technical indicators may contain information useful for predicting the equity market risk premium and may complement forecasting models based on macroeconomic variables. This paper examines the predictive power of technical indicators in conjunction with...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015652076

Intergenerational foresight: an approach for long-term responsibility in governance : handbook

2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015652374

Kalshi and the rise of macro markets

Diercks, Anthony M.; Katz, Jared Dean; Wright, Jonathan H. - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015653041

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Kalshi and the Rise of Macro Markets

Diercks, Anthony M.; Katz, Jared Dean; Wright, Jonathan H. - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Anchored to the dot plot : central bank projections and interest rate expectations

Engstrom, Eric - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015653171

Forecasting inflation with artificial intelligence : a comparative analysis

Agostina Gonzalez, Daniela - 2026

Inflationary dynamics underscore the need for advanced methodologies to enhance forecasting accuracy. This paper explores the potential of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in generating short-term inflation forecasts for Argentina during the 2023-2024 period. The methodology leverages OpenAI's...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015653867

Clean vehicle ownership : implications for effective policy interventions

Amich, Mercè; Tomás, Manuel; Mariel, Petr; Arto, Iñaki - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015632199

From prediction to insight : understanding drivers of UK tourism demand with machine learning

Dimitriadou, Athanasia; Papadimitriou, Theophilos; … - 2026

This study forecasts inbound tourism demand for the United Kingdom, using monthly data from February 1989 to February 2020. In the empirical analysis, we evaluate and compare the performance of five machine learning models (decision trees, random forests, XGBoost, and support vector regression...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015633850

Who saw it coming? : historical experience and the 2021 inflation forecast failure

Stevanović, Dalibor - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015633927

Regime-aware conditional neural processes with multi-criteria decision support for operational electricity price forecasting

Das, Abhinav; Schlüter, Stephan; Schneider, Lorenz - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015635119